UFC 239 - Jones vs Santos

LEMONZEST said:
Mas is athletic enough that it is an interesting match up. I think if Ben gets tired and can no longer secured TDs then the fight could get complicated. I could see Mas spending time on bottom for the first half and then taking over in the last half of the fight.
Click to expand...
The big difference between Maia & Askren is that Askren has much more stamina in wrestling takedowns than Maia. Ben is not going to gas from attempting takedowns & scrambling. If anything his stamina bar will get drained from taking punches & kicks.
 
I’ll post my full lineup later, but right now what stands out to me:

Diego straight at +285. I think people have grossly overestimated Chiesa’s cardio improvements just because he’s at 170 now. Outside of his kicks, his striking is mediocre to poor and he biggest strength (subs) will be neutralized by Diego.

Masvidal by decision at +620. Cant believe more people aren’t on this. Expect this fight to look similar to Maia.

Allen by dec at -130. He’s simply the better fighter, but finishing Melendez has proven difficult.

Jones/Santos starts rd 3 at -120. I think Santos will come out conservative, delaying when he loses.
 
Greco_Wiz said:
I’ll post my full lineup later, but right now what stands out to me:

Diego straight at +285. I think people have grossly overestimated Chiesa’s cardio improvements just because he’s at 170 now. Outside of his kicks, his striking is mediocre to poor and he biggest strength (subs) will be neutralized by Diego.

Masvidal by decision at +620. Cant believe more people aren’t on this. Expect this fight to look similar to Maia.

Allen by dec at -130. He’s simply the better fighter, but finishing Melendez has proven difficult.

Jones/Santos starts rd 3 at -120. I think Santos will come out conservative, delaying when he loses.
Click to expand...
Yeah I saw masvidal at +850 to win by decision earlier and it caught my eye. I could see a scenario where the judges reward masvidals' striking more than askren's wrestling, especially if askren can't get many takedowns in the fight. However I'm also hesitant because Askren's chin is being overrated imo. He was knocked out cold vs lyman good in the 5th round for a few seconds but was so gassed that he didn't realize it allowing Askren to survive. We also saw Askren again get knocked out cold vs Lawler but woken up by punches. Although Masvidal doesn't have the power of Lawler, the volume of strikes he's likely to land will add up. He has a lot of precision and speed too maybe a darren till style KO isn't out of the question. But yeah I can't say no to Masvidal's decision line +850 is utterly absurd to me.
 
Kind of weird that Santos is the number one contender at light heavy weight yet him and Jones only have one opponent in common. Jones hasn't really fought any of the new guard, a lot of old men and ready to retire guys... And guys much smaller than him. The time he did fight a guy his size and also at in his prime a lot of people thought he lost.

Fuck it, I'm betting Santos based on nothing but the price being great and Jones having never fought anyone like him style wise
 
Masvidal is staph infected badly for this one,and cardio is a big decider here,1 gran on Askren before odds change
 
Diego Sanchez is completely braindead at this point. Watch him run forward swinging hooks from a mile away and get wobbled by the first jab.

Chiesa ITD. Sub or KO, both likely.
 
Rickson said:
Diego Sanchez is completely braindead at this point. Watch him run forward swinging hooks from a mile away and get wobbled by the first jab.

Chiesa ITD. Sub or KO, both likely.
Click to expand...



Dude is nuts lol. Nothing new, but damn that's kind of sad to watch.
 
Totals out on a few books. I love Michael Chiesa/Diego Sanchez Under 2½ at -115. Chiesa usually wins by stoppage and has gotten stopped in all of his four pro losses. Meanwhile Diego tough as he is, now is old, undersized at welterweight and has gotten stopped in his last three losses.
 
I know Jon Jones went the distance with Anthony Smith in his most recent title defense, and I lost a bundle on that result, but I can't help but think that won't be the case with Santos. Santos has been finished early in almost every fight he has lost. And won a lot of the fights he was victorious in early. I believe that he's going to be aggressive enough that I think this ends at some point by the third round, whether he pulls off a miracle upset or Jones catches him with something on the feet or ground. I'm taking the under 2½ in the main event. And maybe adding Jones round 2 & 3 props.
 
I’ve recently started at the betting scene again after taking a lengthy hiatus (4 years). Was using 5D, but it’s pissed me off. Recommendations other than Bovada? I need a good prop betting site and don’t generally trust generic ratings/reviews.
 
Greco_Wiz said:
I’ve recently started at the betting scene again after taking a lengthy hiatus (4 years). Was using 5D, but it’s pissed me off. Recommendations other than Bovada? I need a good prop betting site and don’t generally trust generic ratings/reviews.
Click to expand...
Bookmaker, BetOnline, Heritage, BetDSI, Intertops and MyBookie all have UFC props. 5Dimes usually releases them first though.
 
Greco_Wiz said:
I’ve recently started at the betting scene again after taking a lengthy hiatus (4 years). Was using 5D, but it’s pissed me off. Recommendations other than Bovada? I need a good prop betting site and don’t generally trust generic ratings/reviews.
Click to expand...

Bet365 is ok but 5d is king for props.
 
my tips are jones, rockhold, ngannou, chiesa, nunes, askren
 
Anyone who used bet365 they currently have Jones/Santos under 4.5 rounds a 3.75... They fucked up
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,238,598
Messages
55,573,482
Members
174,824
Latest member
Wavemeter

Share this page

Back
Top