UFC on ESPN 6 Reyes vs Weidman

[hawk77]

does anyone have any info on darren stewarts camp/condition. I really trust whats going on with winns team and took 3 units at -110/ Watching h Stewart fight lewis, i didnt come away impressed even though its a decent win Lewis doesnt present much danger in his game. He fought timid and not to his strengths. I dont mind the play as a decent dog but i think the combo of wreslting and striking going to be too much for stewart. hes going to have his moments but we are under-rating the chin of spicely and lawlor in previous fights. There were a lot of chances for those fights to end. It didnt happen, but there is a luck component to that too. there is some variance with that. Not sure what to make of the interview i saw after his spicely fight where he said he felt a bit off. I tend to rate the wrestler cardio pretty high and read his twitter battle where he mentioned dragging stewart into deep water. Winn doesnt seem like someone to be lying in that spot and i expect him to rebound hard. The odds on this fight would have been like they opened if spicely would have been kod earlier. If anything ill be playing Winn for more prefight and looking live bet after i see some energy output. The previous mentioned poor top control of winn relative to how good of a wrestler he is seems true, but i do think if there was a group to be training with and more upside in that area, winn is the guy for it. I think hes improving faster than Stewart and cap this fight closer to -170 winn.

 

[hawk77]

any thoughts on the jitz of rosa and bermudez cancelling each other out and the over 2.5 at -105 having value? interested in any over/under ideas in general

 

[Danis_champ]

does anyone have any info on darren stewarts camp/condition. I really trust whats going on with winns team and took 3 units at -110/ Watching h Stewart fight lewis, i didnt come away impressed even though its a decent win Lewis doesnt present much danger in his game. He fought timid and not to his strengths. I dont mind the play as a decent dog but i think the combo of wreslting and striking going to be too much for stewart. hes going to have his moments but we are under-rating the chin of spicely and lawlor in previous fights. There were a lot of chances for those fights to end. It didnt happen, but there is a luck component to that too. there is some variance with that. Not sure what to make of the interview i saw after his spicely fight where he said he felt a bit off. I tend to rate the wrestler cardio pretty high and read his twitter battle where he mentioned dragging stewart into deep water. Winn doesnt seem like someone to be lying in that spot and i expect him to rebound hard. The odds on this fight would have been like they opened if spicely would have been kod earlier. If anything ill be playing Winn for more prefight and looking live bet after i see some energy output. The previous mentioned poor top control of winn relative to how good of a wrestler he is seems true, but i do think if there was a group to be training with and more upside in that area, winn is the guy for it. I think hes improving faster than Stewart and cap this fight closer to -170 winn.

He did his camp in London. I don't know any high level guy that trains there but from what I have seen Stewart is in very good shape. He is finally training now full time. He was part time fighter when he went on a three fight losing streak. His TDD and cardio have improved a lot recently.

 

[BigNick100]

Bermudez grappling is classic grappling that people who don't know shit about grappling think is good. He's at size, striking and positional grappling deficits. His only real win path is jumping a triangle, if Rosa fought more consistently I'd be going near maxbet

Huh? What kind of rubbish is this saying people who don’t know shit think he has good grappling lol. Clearly your underrating his jits lol

 

[Gugabe]

Huh? What kind of rubbish is this saying people who don’t know shit think he has good grappling lol. Clearly your underrating his jits lol

He's the grappling equivalent of John Phillips. He'll throw up low-percentage subs till he either catches the opponent or gets into an awful position. People frequently confuse this for good grappling.

 

[NonPhixion]

I hope Stephens sparks Yair unconscious & follows up with a H-bomb on the ground.
Can’t stand Yair

 

[BigNick100]

He's the grappling equivalent of John Phillips. He'll throw up low-percentage subs till he either catches the opponent or gets into an awful position. People frequently confuse this for good grappling.

man are you trolling or not?

How he finished Lopez, Grant and Morales was not low percentage subs, he set all 3 of them up. The man is very slick on the ground. Maybe what your trying to say is he prefers sub over position and because of it can get himself in bad spots like the Kenney fight I agree in that aspect, but at the same time Kenney also showed that fight he is legit and a good grappler himself (I bet Kenney there).

Seems like you are trying to convince yourself Rosa is a better bet than he is lol.

 

[ApplesVild]

I hope Stephens sparks Yair unconscious & follows up with a H-bomb on the ground.
Can’t stand Yair

Probably not going to though is he. Stephen's best win and only win that really counts for anything in the past 10 years is Josh Emmett, he's low level and will lose.

 

[Gugabe]

man are you trolling or not?

How he finished Lopez, Grant and Morales was not low percentage subs, he set all 3 of them up. The man is very slick on the ground. Maybe what your trying to say is he prefers sub over position and because of it can get himself in bad spots like the Kenney fight I agree in that aspect, but at the same time Kenney also showed that fight he is legit and a good grappler himself (I bet Kenney there).

Seems like you are trying to convince yourself Rosa is a better bet than he is lol.

Grant he dropped with a wild hook. Morales he failed with a bunch of attempts and got himself into positional trouble with his lack of awareness. I maxbet Kenney there, and Kenney whooped him despite being 25 pounds lighter. Bermudez kinda sucks, and will likely fail at FW once he can't just launch himself at people with a size advantage and rely on rolling the dice on poorly chosen subs.

 

[nebulousned]

Justified bet imo. Sosoli might be the worst HW signed in a long long time.

Gotta agree Sosoli looks like one of the worst. 5u fade on Ben he is giving up alot of height/reach and I'd say power and speed as well.
Not going too crazy though probably more like a 50/50 fight here. Either man might throw an illegal shot or eye poke and get DQed..... On a serious note I'm looking forward to that Hardy KO line

Really? I thought Sosoli's hand speed, power and aggression looked really good in the DWCTS fight and that he would have slept the guy if it wasnt for the eye poke. I also think he has a good chin.

I reckon he'll lose to Hardy but i reckon he'd do alright against both Spitz and Boser.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Barber vs. Robertson is one of those unknowable MMA fights. There are four distinct variables that, unless we work in Barber's camp and/or Robertson's camp, we don't the value of;

1. How is Barber's takedown defense?
2. How is Barber at getting back up?
3. How is Barber's body after she crashed her endocrine system making 115 and then looked fat at 125 in her last fight?
4. Has Robertson finally improved either her wrestling technique (the same since the Silva fight) or stand-up (the same since the McCann fight)?

The last time we saw any indication of 1. and 2. was Barber's LFA fight against Mallory Martin 2 years ago, in her 2nd pro fight at the age of 19. Her takedown defense was mediocre then, and she used omoplata and triangle attempts to try to scramble back up, and she was ground-and-pounded to some extent. However, expecting zero change from that time is unlikely. Recall too how poor Robertson herself was 2 years ago (and she had had way more pro and amateur fights at that point, and was 22), being stopped by Barb Honchak on TUF.

Based on the value of these unknowable variables, we could see two completely different fights.

In one, Barber is a flat-out better wrestler than Robertson (recall that Barber was way stronger, and got consistent takedowns from the clinch at 115), at least as strong as her, dominates her striking and in the clinch, and even worse if Robertson lands on her own back, and looks like a -400 favorite. You feel stupid for not betting Maycee.

In the other, Robertson is a stronger, better grappler than Barber, avoids her striking standing or in the clinch, gets her down to the canvas with her persistence and improved technique, then pounds her. Robertson is the one who looks like the -250 favorite. You feel stupid for not betting Gillian.

 

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UFC Boston Media Day Live Stream:

 

[Stunna77]

Barber vs. Robertson is one of those unknowable MMA fights. There are four distinct variables that, unless we work in Barber's camp and/or Robertson's camp, we don't the value of;

1. How is Barber's takedown defense?
2. How is Barber at getting back up?
3. How is Barber's body after she crashed her endocrine system making 115 and then looked fat at 125 in her last fight?
4. Has Robertson finally improved either her wrestling technique (the same since the Silva fight) or stand-up (the same since the McCann fight)?

The last time we saw any indication of 1. and 2. was Barber's LFA fight against Mallory Martin 2 years ago, in her 2nd pro fight at the age of 19. Her takedown defense was mediocre then, and she used omoplata and triangle attempts to try to scramble back up, and she was ground-and-pounded to some extent. However, expecting zero change from that time is unlikely. Recall too how poor Robertson herself was 2 years ago (and she had had way more pro and amateur fights at that point, and was 22), being stopped by Barb Honchak on TUF.

Based on the value of these unknowable variables, we could see two completely different fights.

In one, Barber is a flat-out better wrestler than Robertson (recall that Barber was way stronger, and got consistent takedowns from the clinch at 115), at least as strong as her, dominates her striking and in the clinch, and even worse if Robertson lands on her own back, and looks like a -400 favorite. You feel stupid for not betting Maycee.

In the other, Robertson is a stronger, better grappler than Barber, avoids her striking standing or in the clinch, gets her down to the canvas with her persistence and improved technique, then pounds her. Robertson is the one who looks like the -250 favorite. You feel stupid for not betting Gillian.

Either way we will have 1/2 the forum flopping their big dicks down come Saturday morning. Pass for me.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

have you watched the tapes bro?stewart has shown decent tdd in the last few fights.

Yes, but I don't think he's faced a wrestler of the level of Winn.

 

[Stunna77]

I jumped on some early Bovada specials on Salmon +105 and Stewart +135 (arbed to 1u +153). Have also bet Allen for 1u +130, but don't feel great about it. I do think he has improved his fight IQ with experience and that could be all he needs to win here, also has the benefit of Meers in his camp. Like Boser for 1u -135, should really beat Spitz quite easily with decent tdd, focus on leg kicks, durability and cardio, but still low level so can't go big. Took 1.5u Pearce -130, very likely he outlast Lauzon and finishes him late, and Lauzon hopefully retires at home.

Best bet on the card IMO is Bochniak. I have 4u -133 and think he makes it look rather easy. I feel that people are vastly overrating Woodson's volume and overall striking as he has fought bums willing to stand directly in front of him while offering no countering ability. When forced to fight on his back foot he is not effective, backs up in straight lines to the fence and his defense breaks down. Even when 3-11 Basler and bricked up boxer Lovelace decided to come forward they had plenty of success. His jab is decent, but Bochniak is quite good at closing distance with feints and movement. Bochniak should pressure, score inside, utilitze tds and clinch control to an easy 30-27. We also know Bochniak is crazy durable and has the cardio to maintain a high pace for 15. Woodson's PTV is a contentious decision over the hometown guy who will be moving forward, throwing the heavier shots, controlling the clinch, and likely landing tds.

 

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Main Event Open Workouts:

 

[Red_2]

I jumped on some early Bovada specials on Salmon +105 and Stewart +135 (arbed to 1u +153). Have also bet Allen for 1u +130, but don't feel great about it. I do think he has improved his fight IQ with experience and that could be all he needs to win here, also has the benefit of Meers in his camp. Like Boser for 1u -135, should really beat Spitz quite easily with decent tdd, focus on leg kicks, durability and cardio, but still low level so can't go big. Took 1.5u Pearce -130, very likely he outlast Lauzon and finishes him late, and Lauzon hopefully retires at home.

Best bet on the card IMO is Bochniak. I have 4u -133 and think he makes it look rather easy. I feel that people are vastly overrating Woodson's volume and overall striking as he has fought bums willing to stand directly in front of him while offering no countering ability. When forced to fight on his back foot he is not effective, backs up in straight lines to the fence and his defense breaks down. Even when 3-11 Basler and bricked up boxer Lovelace decided to come forward they had plenty of success. His jab is decent, but Bochniak is quite good at closing distance with feints and movement. Bochniak should pressure, score inside, utilitze tds and clinch control to an easy 30-27. We also know Bochniak is crazy durable and has the cardio to maintain a high pace for 15. Woodson's PTV is a contentious decision over the hometown guy who will be moving forward, throwing the heavier shots, controlling the clinch, and likely landing tds.

If Bochniak wins a 30-27 I'll upload a picture of me eating shit. Not a fucking chance that happens, and I know because I went into researching this hoping to bet Bochniak.

 

[Stunna77]

If Bochniak wins a 30-27 I'll upload a picture of me eating shit. Not a fucking chance that happens, and I know because I went into researching this hoping to bet Bochniak.

Damn dude, if you know cause you researched it then it sounds like im fucked, I clearly have not researched it.

Just kidding, I look forward to seeing you eating your own feces.

 

[Vir_Ars]

If Bochniak wins a 30-27 I'll upload a picture of me eating shit. Not a fucking chance that happens, and I know because I went into researching this hoping to bet Bochniak.

so, what is your point of view? analisis?

 

[Danis_champ]

Stewart's split dec loss over Edmond aged quite well. Had he gotten that dec he'd be in a 4 fight winning streak. I think Winn is too fucking small and he will pay for it sooner than later. Stewart is much better striker than Eric and I had to hold my breath in the Eric fight because I thought Winn was going to get knocked out any minute there. Honestly I'd be very very surprised if Stewart loses the striking here.