UFC 250

Took Aljo -110.

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FireKidWS said:
Is anybody thinking of placing a bet on Wineland now that he is +375?

Hes a former WEC champ and has had almost 13 fights in the UFC.
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Probably ends up being a crazy firefight, IMO.
 
Dammit. Have to redo my DK teams again. This Heinisch shit is taking up too much of my time!!
 
Revisiting GM3 vs. Ian “Ya ever been to Rikers?” Heinsich.

I kind of simplified the fight too much and leaned Heinsich because of his pace and wrestling. But as others have mentioned, Heinsich has contender level series technique with the heart and determination of a Spike Carlyle. There would have to be something wrong with GM3 such as him fighting Ian’s fight and trying to sloppily take down Ian, for him to “lose” the fight. The problem with GM3 is that unless he subs his opponents, the fights are always close. I believe he edged out many of the people he split decisioned, but at the same time you can make an argument for the other side...

A lot of people talk too much about scrambling because they interpret that as any sort of grappling. GM3 is the much more competent grappler here and I see him using solid base line defense against Heinsich. Really making him work for the takedown and potentially win rounds by advancing on Heinsich or attacking submissions. Heinsich supposedly had mono or whatever in the Akhmedov fight, but he looked very dull in the octagon against Derek Brunson (who I consider solid, but he is your typical top 10 GK that you have to soundly beat if you want to be in the top 10).

I do like GM3, but I wouldn’t bet on him because he always keeps fights close and I doubt he will easily dominate to a 30-27... you can guarantee that GM3 will put on a 29-28 esque performance and with the judging these days, you’re really gambling once it hits the scorecards.

This, and the Aljo vs Sandhagen fight should be avoided betting on unless for entertainment or if you’re looking for props. I’d say the value is on GM3 via decision, because to “lose” he would have to fight Ian’s fight.

Also, I was on Formiga and I will be taking that back as well. The lighter weights rely on speed and athleticism and in the Moreno fight he looked very flat on the feet and on the ground. Moreno pretty much “out athleted” Formiga by just muscling out of any attempts to hold him down. I mentioned that Moreno was on roids lol, but the more likely situation is that Formiga has experienced that drop off. I can’t say much about Perez because I can’t really gauge how good he is, but I can’t be backing older flyweights against a younger, fresher, and experienced guy. Perez by decision is the value line here.

Aljo vs Sandhagen... I have a weird feeling that this fight ends in the distance. These guys are both aggro on the feet and I do believe that Sterling’s takedowns are overrated. I believe that Sandhagen is too good at reading range that he will fall for a naked takedown attempt from sterling. Especially with the whole covid thing, I don’t think Sterling has been sharpening that wrestling very much. Meanwhile, team elevation guys have been on an absolute tear and they have been doing things right. I think everyone can agree that Sandhagen is the better striker, and the smaller cage will only benefit the guy who knows how to use range more efficiently... Also, Sterling was getting lit up by kicks from Pedro Munhoz who is not really known for his kicking? It was a clean decision win for sterling, but he had trouble with the kicks for sure. Sandhagen NSC @ -110 or Sandhagen via decision. But this fight is tough to call at the end of the day, if Aljo really is in his “prime” Sandhagen could lose to a split decision or be out of his element. I can’t imagine anyone laying serious money on This fight, probably the toughest fight to predict with confidence in this entire card.
 
Nunes/Spencer line is just off imo.

Spencer is incredibly strong, she dominated Cyborg in the clinch, took some heavy bombs and shrugged them off and she constantly pressed forward trying to secure a TD. Also give her a cardio advantage here. Stylistically this is going to be one of Nunes' biggest challenges and the odds don't reflect this.
 
NonPhixion said:
Nunes/Spencer line is just off imo.

Spencer is incredibly strong, she dominated Cyborg in the clinch, took some heavy bombs and shrugged them off and she constantly pressed forward trying to secure a TD. Also give her a cardio advantage here. Stylistically this is going to be one of Nunes' biggest challenges and the odds don't reflect this.
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Nunes hasn’t really shown any signs of decline and honestly we all underrate GDR because of her friendly personality. GDR is arguably one of the best strikers in WMMA and yes she gave Nunes trouble but Nunes had no trouble taking her down. The thing that surprised me the most was GDR’s triangle attempt where if she was more competent in BJJ she woulda gotten it. I don’t think Felicia Spencer has the physicality of a GDR to do anything like that. Spencer could realistically be a 125er with some dieting, she is a literal blown up featherweight who has exposed two other 145ers with virtually no TDD.

I think those who bet on Felicia will be shaking their heads as they watch Nunes pummel her into a living death.

Also, Felicia is incredibly easy to gameplan for due to her obvious fighting style. She is NOT going to box with Nunes and if she goes for a lazy kick with no setup she could eat some huge shots that swing the momentum of the fight towards Nunes. She is also going to have a ton of trouble trying to grab on to Nunes. If ronda Rousey couldn’t get a hold of Nunes, what makes you think FELICIA SPENCER will?
 
Vitor Apologist said:
Nunes hasn’t really shown any signs of decline and honestly we all underrate GDR because of her friendly personality. GDR is arguably one of the best strikers in WMMA and yes she gave Nunes trouble but Nunes had no trouble taking her down. The thing that surprised me the most was GDR’s triangle attempt where if she was more competent in BJJ she woulda gotten it. I don’t think Felicia Spencer has the physicality of a GDR to do anything like that. Spencer could realistically be a 125er with some dieting, she is a literal blown up featherweight who has exposed two other 145ers with virtually no TDD.

I think those who bet on Felicia will be shaking their heads as they watch Nunes pummel her into a living death.

Also, Felicia is incredibly easy to gameplan for due to her obvious fighting style. She is NOT going to box with Nunes and if she goes for a lazy kick with no setup she could eat some huge shots that swing the momentum of the fight towards Nunes. She is also going to have a ton of trouble trying to grab on to Nunes. If ronda Rousey couldn’t get a hold of Nunes, what makes you think FELICIA SPENCER will?
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I disagree with her not having the physicality. Spencer is fucking strong as fuck. Watch the fight with Cyborg, she had her way with her in the clinch. Obviously there are some issues, but I don't think that is one of them, ill be surprised if she isn't stronger than Amanda. The big problem is going to be her low volume on the feet. But she has a good chin.
Nunes is pumped up to be the GOAT, which is kind of hard to argue against, but I still think markets over-rate her when pricing them. Im not saying that Spencer will win this fight, in fact I think Nunes will win, but I definitely give her better than a 16% chance of winning.
 
Wiktoruspro said:
He will lose, only @Gugabe bet him.
But Gugabe bet also Smolka against Casey
<36>


Dont bet him, only 1% win chance
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You are wrong. I watched interview with Malley's coach a few days ago and he said his fighter has 98% chance to win vs shopworn Wineland. I trust his coach on this and am in agreement.
 
SolarSeiko said:
Davidson Figureighto
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Close. Deiveson Figueiredo. For the reason his name is hard to write I often write him as Figuredo. :D
Card said:
As I explained in my own video “How Pedro Munhoz finished Cody Garbrandt”, Munhoz forced Cody to follow him just to break his own rhythm and counter Cody on the way in.
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Will add that Cody was loading so much when he got mad in that fight, that he ruined his handspeed to the point that Munhoz was able to beat him to the punch! At least it looked like that to me.
mkess101 said:
I realize it will be quite the strategy change, but I expect Cody to be more reserved and not take the fight to Assuncao as much. Cody's speed and reflexes should allow him to land counters at will IF he can show the patience needed.
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But Raphael is quite the reserve fighter. Cody has to first make him go forward. I don't think Raphael will present him a lot of counter opportunities.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
You are wrong. I watched interview with Malley's coach a few days ago and he said his fighter has 98% chance to win vs shopworn Wineland. I trust his coach on this and am in agreement.
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Oh ok, so... Eddie has 2% win chance
<45>
Seriously dont lose money on betting him guys, better donate a dog shelter. Its hard time for doggies
 
Kyle Stephens said:
Close. Deiveson Figueiredo. For the reason his name is hard to write I often write him as Figuredo. :D
Will add that Cody was loading so much when he got mad in that fight, that he ruined his handspeed to the point that Munhoz was able to beat him to the punch! At least it looked like that to me.
But Raphael is quite the reserve fighter. Cody has to first make him go forward. I don't think Raphael will present him a lot of counter opportunities.
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Actually I kind of agree. I honestly think Cody/Assuncao is going to be more boring than people realize. Not good for a co-main. But I think even at range Cody's speed will be enough for him to land more even though it's not how he's used to fighting. I think Cody will be overly aware of being reckless and in turn will try to be calculated. And Assuncao will be content to fight off the back foot even when pressured. So I see to over and goes distance props as having some value too.
 
mkess101 said:
Actually I kind of agree. I honestly think Cody/Assuncao is going to be more boring than people realize. Not good for a co-main. But I think even at range Cody's speed will be enough for him to land more even though it's not how he's used to fighting. I think Cody will be overly aware of being reckless and in turn will try to be calculated. And Assuncao will be content to fight off the back foot even when pressured. So I see to over and goes distance props as having some value too.
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Watch him go balls out in the first like he did with Thomas Almeida.
 
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