UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal (7/11)

while unlikely, Masvidal Dec @ 10/1 is pretty wide imo, had to get some of that..took some of Melo TKO @ 13/1 too
while I'm on this longshot train, Max's 4th and 5th rounds are both over 30/1 ,,I mean c'mon
 
Last edited:
Kamais_Ookin said:
So with all this casual money coming in on Jorge it's best to wait longer before placing bet on Usman for potential better odds?
Click to expand...
I wonder if Jorge placed a bet on himself yet, moving the line too..it was +260 a day or two ago,,if not it could get even better for Usman backers
 
Sono07 said:
I could definitely see Salikhov striking his way to a decision, solid odds. Thinking I might play a mix of his ML an NSC lines. I think grappling control is probably Dos Santos best ptv maybe a sub. Hopefully Muslim doesn't get carried away with his kicks.

His speed and timing with the spin moves is impressive though. Between his counter work and Dos Antos getting KOed by Jingliang I wouldn't be surprised if Salikhov gets a finish. I think he could time the in and out switching from "Capoeira" but I hope it's a striking match either way.
Click to expand...

Oh for sure he could get a finish. To me, the odds are just off on how he wins (if he wins of course, which he may not).

I cap it that if Salikhov wins, it's probably 55-60% finish, 40-45% he wins a decision. Based on that, I just think his prop odds are off. Itd at +160 and dec +385?? (Now down to +365 but whatever). That's just way off to me based on how I think he will approach this fight.

I'd way rather play the prop that pays almost 4-1 when I think it's relatively close his method of victory is somewhat close to 50/50 when it comes to finish or decision. It's a pure odds play to me.

Just like with Mike Perry/Mickey Gall. Perry itd was at -1xx and his decision line was +434. I thought that was insane. I figured he was the better fighter and would win, but that Gall was a tough kid with plenty of ways to survive. I figured if Perry won it was similar, maybe 50-60% he'd finish, 40-50% he'd win a decision. And the books had it way wrong. I see this somewhat similarly, although I give Zaleski a better chance to win the fight than I did Gall.
 
Sono07 said:
I kinda like Salikhov here. I think he has improved his grappling since his sub loss.
I am worried about his spins leaving him open for TD's. Man the "King of kung-fu" has one mean spinning hook kick though.

To whoever decided sherdog needed a top and bottom ad banner there is a special place in hell for you. Typing this shit with like a 1/4 inch viewing window on my phone sucks ass.
Click to expand...
I just kinda think that enough can go wrong for Salikhov I'd be hesitant to play him as a favorite.

He's low volume in first rounds, a grappling situation is probably a round or a finish and Zaleski's classically done pretty well on the scorecards due to his volume, aggression and body language. If Salikhov doesn't get the KO, I think a decision is pretty nerve-wracking.

Sono07 said:
I could definitely see Salikhov striking his way to a decision, solid odds. Thinking I might play a mix of his ML an NSC lines. I think grappling control is probably Dos Santos best ptv maybe a sub. Hopefully Muslim doesn't get carried away with his kicks.

His speed and timing with the spin moves is impressive though. Between his counter work and Dos Antos getting KOed by Jingliang I wouldn't be surprised if Salikhov gets a finish. I think he could time the in and out switching from "Capoeira" but I hope it's a striking match either way.
Click to expand...
If it goes 15, I just don't like his output. Zaleski'll throw a lot of strikes, a takedown could be a massive issue for Salikhov. IMO good chance he gets the KO, but I'm pretty reluctant to hit at that number since I think a decision is probably a split at best.
 
Gugabe said:
I just kinda think that enough can go wrong for Salikhov I'd be hesitant to play him as a favorite.

He's low volume in first rounds, a grappling situation is probably a round or a finish and Zaleski's classically done pretty well on the scorecards due to his volume, aggression and body language. If Salikhov doesn't get the KO, I think a decision is pretty nerve-wracking.


If it goes 15, I just don't like his output. Zaleski'll throw a lot of strikes, a takedown could be a massive issue for Salikhov. IMO good chance he gets the KO, but I'm pretty reluctant to hit at that number since I think a decision is probably a split at best.
Click to expand...

I can see the fight going similar to leech/dos Santos where Li outpointed him pretty easily before knocking him out. Li isn’t exactly high volume either and was just touching him with counters while moving away from all zeleskis strikes. Only reason the fight ended in ko is because dos santos was chasing in the third round

I think salikhov actually has pretty good tdd and dos Santos has below average takedowns
 
mkess101 said:
Oh for sure he could get a finish. To me, the odds are just off on how he wins (if he wins of course, which he may not).

I cap it that if Salikhov wins, it's probably 55-60% finish, 40-45% he wins a decision. Based on that, I just think his prop odds are off. Itd at +160 and dec +385?? (Now down to +365 but whatever). That's just way off to me based on how I think he will approach this fight.

I'd way rather play the prop that pays almost 4-1 when I think it's relatively close his method of victory is somewhat close to 50/50 when it comes to finish or decision. It's a pure odds play to me.

Just like with Mike Perry/Mickey Gall. Perry itd was at -1xx and his decision line was +434. I thought that was insane. I figured he was the better fighter and would win, but that Gall was a tough kid with plenty of ways to survive. I figured if Perry won it was similar, maybe 50-60% he'd finish, 40-50% he'd win a decision. And the books had it way wrong. I see this somewhat similarly, although I give Zaleski a better chance to win the fight than I did Gall.
Click to expand...
Definitely a good price, I may have to take a stab. Think I like working backwards with the NSC lines though. I doubt Zaleski finishes Muslim unless he just happens to catch him with something and I like the option for a push.

Speaking of Perry check out that clip I shared in the futures thread. No odds but I bet Perry just caught an assault charge.
 
Gugabe said:
I just kinda think that enough can go wrong for Salikhov I'd be hesitant to play him as a favorite.

He's low volume in first rounds, a grappling situation is probably a round or a finish and Zaleski's classically done pretty well on the scorecards due to his volume, aggression and body language. If Salikhov doesn't get the KO, I think a decision is pretty nerve-wracking.


If it goes 15, I just don't like his output. Zaleski'll throw a lot of strikes, a takedown could be a massive issue for Salikhov. IMO good chance he gets the KO, but I'm pretty reluctant to hit at that number since I think a decision is probably a split at best.
Click to expand...
He is a bit of a sharpshooter but his defense is solid. I don't like how he took his foot off the gas in r3 against Staropoli but he had a clear 2 rounds up.
That and he burned alot of gas and nearly finished him in r2. Honestly I was expecting him to be a bigger favorite here.
 
Last edited:
matthew55 said:
Do you even remember you're original reply? You offered no explanation, just said it was dumb, interesting. I use sportsbook.ag bonuses all the time because the rollover requirement isn't absurd and it has worked out plenty of times. If you don't know what you're talking about, just scroll on.
Click to expand...

You should work on your grammar before you start white knighting for terrible online casino bonuses.

Just a thought.
 
bl0b said:
You should work on your grammar before you start white knighting for terrible online casino bonuses.

Just a thought.
Click to expand...
I could give a fuck about my grammar on an online betting forum, but apparently that's a big concern to you. Good luck with that,,and noone is "white knighting" for anything dumb fuck.
 
I really like Masvidal but he has alot of hype. His 3 last wins only the Till one is legit.
Askren was a lucky ko and Diaz is a overrated piece of shit.
Usman will probably grind him out
20200709_070611.jpg
 
rn 5Dimes has super juicy odds (Usman, Volk and Yan all 20 points less than the only legal sportsbook in IL

i've been wanting to pivot away from 5Dimes and just use the legal sportsbook but their minimum withdraw is 1k

so I gotta about $450 in 5Dimes that I need to turn into 1k so I can pullout

who got a cute parlay idea
 
mpihZ8e.png


with my luck PVZ gonna KO Ribas and the rest of the picks will hit
 
Everygoodnametook said:
mpihZ8e.png


with my luck PVZ gonna KO Ribas and the rest of the picks will hit
Click to expand...
Sorry but how dumb is it to bet on someone whose line is -750?
It's still the fight game and anything can happen.
Would never touch anything above -400, unless it's a fight between some top 4 HW against a female strawweight...
With that said I agree with your other bets, but adding ribas was dumb imo
 
GoatArtemLobov said:
Sorry but how dumb is it to bet on someone whose line is -750?
It's still the fight game and anything can happen.
Would never touch anything above -400, unless it's a fight between some top 4 HW against a female strawweight...
With that said I agree with your other bets, but adding ribas was dumb imo
Click to expand...
Value is value, she should be at least -1000
 
ill800 said:
Value is value, she should be at least -1000
Click to expand...
She lost to Polyana Viana, who herself lost to Macedo, who isn't quite the best female fighter on earth.
Not trying to make mma maths, simply saying that anything can happen in a fight.
Tyson Fury almost lost to Otto Walin last year because of a cut. I wouldn't have liked to be the guys having money on him at -1000+ odds...
 
GoatArtemLobov said:
She lost to Polyana Viana, who herself lost to Macedo, who isn't quite the best female fighter on earth.
Not trying to make mma maths, simply saying that anything can happen in a fight.
Tyson Fury almost lost to Otto Walin last year because of a cut. I wouldn't have liked to be the guys having money on him at -1000+ odds...
Click to expand...
Did you actually watch that fight? It was a pretty flukey slip and she’s improved quite a bit since then.


Obviously anything can happen, and we cap these things happening at certain percentages. I think Paige has a 10% chance to win, maybe an arm bar from guard.

Therefore I cap her at -1000, and there’s value on the current line indicating that I should probably max bet the line at 5 units
 
ill800 said:
Did you actually watch that fight? It was a pretty flukey slip and she’s improved quite a bit since then.


Obviously anything can happen, and we cap these things happening at certain percentages. I think Paige has a 10% chance to win, maybe an arm bar from guard.

Therefore I cap her at -1000, and there’s value on the current line indicating that I should probably max bet the line at 5 units
Click to expand...

Of course I think she is gonna win, but -750 is a line I wouldn't ever bet for a mma fight.
There seemed to be value on "Not Worthy by submission" at -9250 too...
What were the live odds that rocked, almost tkoed and mounted Greene was going to submit Villante? Shit happens...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,237,446
Messages
55,491,402
Members
174,789
Latest member
Jahmaltheknight

Share this page

Back
Top