UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal (7/11)

FimbulFightPicks said:
What is the concensus here for parlays in general? Do people feel it adds value, is it worth it or only under special conditions? Some people like adding a couple favs for dog odds, some oogs together, some one dog, many favs, some long multi parlays, and some mixed with props etc.

One thing I often hear is the debate whether or not a parlay can generate value. Because you get more units, even though of course its the same as if you had rolled over.
One thing parlays does do at least is it locks in the odds you got + can be good for limits.

One thing one can do is to simulate whether you had put them in a parlay or not. A parlay just like a fighter can be calculated, and often this really puts things into perspective. I´ve sometimes had parlays i thought were amazing but when i realize they only should hit maybe 30-40% of the time, suddenly you don´t want to put too much on it. I think people really lack this - they don´t calculate the percentage chance of that parlay hitting. Both the indicated hit chance, and what they believe, thats very important imo. Like if you have some fighters and the odds indicate that fighter A has 60% chance to win, fighter B 60% fighter and then fighter C has 45% chance then according to the bookie odds you only have a 16,2% chance of it hitting. But if you cap them at 70%, 70% and lets say 60% then your perceived chance of it hitting is then 29,4%.

Thats still very low. But with a decent edge at 13.2%, but you should probably deduct a few percentages as we´re probably not 100% spot on, and if we still have value after deducting maybe 5%, then we can go ahead. But already based on this you can see it gets so risky due to you now have 3 fighters, and if you´re not spot on about all 3. You´re in big potential trouble, with a low hit chance. But long term is what matters - but how many truly would keep betting this after losing a few in a row? So you never get that data. This is why simulations are important.

I think parlays can be used to great effect, but there needs to be alot of thought put into it. A system, and many people put not enough thought into it. I also hear some say if you bet two 1.40 favorites you might as well parlay them together as its either profit or loss then..well..maybe, it depends - Its important not to look at it from event to event, but over longterm. So its a great idea to simulate this in spreadsheets, so you after a year have massive data on what would had happened if you had done this and that, and had bet X, Y, Z etc.

Lot of work? Yes. Worth it? Yes.

@Sadistics is one of the best I know with spreadsheet usage. Also showed me the best spreadsheet. I know other very good cappers who does this. So highly recommend anyone to just start small, if you´re not doing this at all.

Anyway what do everyone else think of parlays in general? Any strategies you like using?
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after many years of hitting the 8 leg parlay I generally stay away

straight bets mostly dogs and at worst 3 team parlays
 
TheFightGame said:
These points are fair, but the film shows aldo fighting moraes who we arent even sure Yan is better than, and appearing to have cardio to go another 2. he seemed fine vs volk as well.

Is yans pace too much ?
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Yan's pace should be too much. And this is a championship bout. Yan's not gonna overwhelm him with volume (at least not in the beginning) but just him stalking Aldo will make Aldo overreact to every suggestion of a punch, which is going to tire him mentally and physically I think.
 
I think Masvidal’s TDD doesn’t match up well with Usman. He does his best work getting up against the cage. Meanwhile, Usman does his best work grinding you against the cage.

I could see this being somewhat similar to Poirier and Khabib. Masvidal uses the switch and threatens the guillotine, much like Dustin. Khabib also likes working against the cage, like Usman. Could see this being a similar matchup.
 
I'll tape what I feel are the best bets on the card.
Macaque said:
I think Masvidal’s TDD doesn’t match up well with Usman. He does his best work getting up against the cage. Meanwhile, Usman does his best work grinding you against the cage.

I could see this being somewhat similar to Poirier and Khabib. Masvidal uses the switch and threatens the guillotine, much like Dustin. Khabib also likes working against the cage, like Usman. Could see this being a similar matchup.
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This is how I see the fight possibly playing out except I favor Masvidal more in the clinch against Usman than I did Poirier against Khabib.

Masvidal has been training with Colby for years and now Bo Nickal. I think Jorge is going to surprise us. Again.
 
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mkess101 said:
Are any of you lunatics gonna actually tape and cap all the fights for the next 3 cards that are taking place over 8 days?

I'm not even gonna get to taping all the fights for Saturday's card. Not even close. For sure not Melo/Rosa, Henry/Amirkhani, or Grant/Day. Iffy on Zhumagolov/Paiva too. I bet Tybura decision without taping that fight at all, just going off memory.

I cannot imagine I'm gonna get to much tape at all for the Wed card.
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Honestly it looks like work just remembering half the names for the next 2 cards. Yardwork, spending time with the girlfriends family, I'll probably be finishing up my 251 bets when the preshow starts. I don't hate seeing Usman's price get better though.
 
Macaque said:
I think Masvidal’s TDD doesn’t match up well with Usman. He does his best work getting up against the cage. Meanwhile, Usman does his best work grinding you against the cage.

I could see this being somewhat similar to Poirier and Khabib. Masvidal uses the switch and threatens the guillotine, much like Dustin. Khabib also likes working against the cage, like Usman. Could see this being a similar matchup.
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The more I taped Usman the more I thought Bob Sapp and Khabib had a love child.
 
If any of you are going to be in Las Vegas for UFC 251, send me a private message and we can meet up to watch the fights.

I arrived earlier today (Thursday).
 
My picks are...

Usman-If this fight goes past 3 rounds. Usman will bless Masvidal unless Usman is hurt.

Volkanovski- I see the fight being the same as the first fight. Holloway might start out faster compare to the last fight and that might play into Volkanovski’s game. Holloway will protect his left leg either to change stance or leg check or snipe Volkanovski whenever he throws a leg kick. It’s easier said than done. Another thing, I really believe Volkanovski can KO Holloway but Holloway can only win by DEC. Volkanovski has more than one way to win compare to Holloway.

Rose Namajunas- Rose should win this. quite easily. She was piecing Andrade up before the head slam. Rose won’t fall for the same gimmick this time(I hope not lol). She’ll cruise to a DEC. This is a 3 round fight. She also seems to be really motivated for this fight, we might see her KO Andrade.
 
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PuertoRican said:
If any of you are going to be in Las Vegas for UFC 251, send me a private message and we can meet up to watch the fights.

I arrived earlier today (Thursday).
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I may have asked you before, but where do you like to watch the fights?
 
@Sadistics I'd like to get your thoughts on Oezdemir and Day seeings how they're your biggest bets. How do you see them playing out? I've never liked Oezdemir but Jiri looks like a can crusher, but he also might have freaky power, not sure. I've already got Day, but not super convinced on him either.
 
Okay I’m getting around to some tape watch on some people I am unfamiliar with making their debuts:

Maxim Grishin, funny enough I’ve seen him fight live at PFL in Long Beach but I didn’t remember how he fights. After finding some fights on YouTube though, I think he’s a very skilled fighter. He’s got a really good counter straight right hand that he throws really well down the pipe. He even steps forward with it and then throws combinations. He’s got a nice leg kicking game too. Very skilled striker.

I’m not sure how his ground game stacks against Tybura here because I know Tybura could possibly get him down and be heavy on top.

CLEARLY Grishin is the better fighter everywhere, except he’s also fighting a HW while he’s usually a 205er from what it looks like.

Tough to call but Tybura has to make it an ugly clinch/trip fight where he uses his size to smother Grishin cuz if he isn’t able to impose that, then Grishin is going to kickbox him up.

—-

Jiri, looks like a great addition to 205 and he’s extremely aggressive and potent offensive fighter. He’s got good athleticism and will rough up a lot of LHWs. He’s just an overall huge man. But with that said, he’s got a ton of holes in his game that can be easily exploited. His ground game sucks, that’s a No-No in the UFC or in MMA in general, however you can get away with it at 205 and higher (see Derrick Lewis). He also doesn’t know how to fight any other way then going forward, so he can’t fight backwards. The reason why is cuz despite being a super tall framed guy, he doesn’t even use his reach. His footwork also sucks, he stands completely square with guys in the pocket and gets cracked by a bunch of people. He also fights with his hands down relying on his size and length to melt guys, so he’s living and dying by the sword.

How Jiri matches up with Oezdemir? I think Oezdemir is going to crack him or chop him down. Jiri has bulldozed guys in the regional but Volkan isn’t the type of guy that’s gonna go away. Once Volkan starts making Jiri back up, then it’s Volkan’s fight. I think Volkan will also have the option to chop his legs down. The experience gap in high level fights is huge. Last thing, I think Volkan has a very underrated wrestling game. I believe he’s got that in his back pocket if he needs to use it here.
 
Card said:
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Cody Garbrandt
 
Re: debut guys

Zhalgas, looks like he’s half Chinese and half Russian for what it’s worth. I’m not 100% sure what his game is. Maybe I’ll need to watch again but he’s just a very twitchy guy. His footwork looks weird and his boxing is just awkward. I’m not even sure what his ground game is like. I guess he throws his left side attacks really well, kicks and jabs. He’s very active that’s forsure. Someone enlighten me cuz I’ve only watched 2 of his fights.

I think Paiva out strikes him and I don’t see either guy holding eachother down on the mat for long. And seeing how this new guy’s footwork is so jerky, I’m gonna go with Paiva marching him down and landing right hand counter shots.

———-

Bogatov, supremely good and dogged wrestler. He sticks to you like glue and doesn’t let go. He’s an octopus and he’s got a great wrestling shot. Too bad he’s not safe on the ground with Leo Santos, so what’s he gonna do? His striking isn’t good he just wings big shots and then ducks his head and shoots in for the legs. Santos isn’t going to bite on any of those striking exchanges because he doesn’t fear Bogatov taking him down like most of Bogatov’s opponents. Santos is going to catch him coming in, hurt him and then the finish happens.
 
mkess101 said:
Are any of you lunatics gonna actually tape and cap all the fights for the next 3 cards that are taking place over 8 days?

I'm not even gonna get to taping all the fights for Saturday's card. Not even close. For sure not Melo/Rosa, Henry/Amirkhani, or Grant/Day. Iffy on Zhumagolov/Paiva too. I bet Tybura decision without taping that fight at all, just going off memory.

I cannot imagine I'm gonna get to much tape at all for the Wed card.
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I'm going to try to do so tonight (getting my wisdom teeth out the day before the Kattar v Ige card, so need to plan in advance)

With that said, I'm also fucking abysmal at MMA betting and way too good at rationalising why fighters I like personally will win, so take what I say with a grain of salt
 
Is there any chance Usman gets bet down again?

I didn't bet Masvidal at +250 because I assumed the public would Khabib v McGregor this, but people keep fucking betting on Masvidal. I genuinely think Masvidal is value above +250, but +200 feels like I'm losing too much value and I may have to take Usman if his odds get too reasonable (something I REALLY don't want to do)
 
ill800 said:
I think the paiva/zhumagulov line is wide

Zhuma dec +242 seems like value to me

Paiva getting a bit too much love here for a guy that gets hit like he does and is at a perceivable grappling disadvantage

edit: I might have to walk back that grappling advantage comment. In all his fights I watched he’s typically the one getting taken down and seems to prefer the stand up. Even when he is on top he often ends up getting swept.

he’s going to be at a big reach disadvantage, which is typical for a guy listed at 5’5. I would’ve liked to get paiva at around evens but I still think zhuma dec at +242 has value

I also think he’s gotten the benefit of being the hometown fighter on a few iffy decisions

he’s sloppy at times, over committing to punches and trying to compensate to being out of position with spinning back fists. Also sloppy on the ground when he advances positions
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Forgive me, I just started reading through this thread so I'm replying to your old ass comment as if it's fresh maybe somebody already pointed this out.

Here's what's bothering me, these YouTube motherfuckers I listen to also said, like you did, that Zhumagulov was definitely the superior grappler and was most likely going to win vs Paiva. But when I watched tape on Zhumagulov he was far from a good grappler, he was actually helpless for minutes at a time, being thoroughly controlled, and then gifted these baffling decisions.

What was it you saw in the first place that made you think he was a great grappler or wrestler?
 
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