Economy Inflation is coming to the U.S. and the World

Lord Coke

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I am not a economist so I don't have a lot of analysis to provide on this subject. The question presented for discussion is how bad is inflation going to get?

Its definitely happening.


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/19/how...your-pocket-and-what-you-can-do-about-it.html

You’re not imagining it. Things don’t merely seem more expensive these days — consumer prices are actually accelerating at their fastest pace in 13 years. This higher inflation doesn’t just affect the price you pay at the register. It can also have an impact on your major purchases, investments, and more. And for communities of color and the income-constrained, that impact may be magnified due to higher levels of debt and structural unemployment, both of which may make the experience of inflation more challenging. Here’s how inflation may affect you and what you can do about it.

According to financial expert and CEO of Torch Enterprises, Dr. Pamela Jolly, while the impacts of inflation may be felt across all income levels, “People who are either income constrained or have inconsistent income streams will feel the most impact.”


Though the overall Consumer Price Index rose by 5% year-on-year in its latest reading, not all consumer goods accelerated at the same pace. The greatest price increases were concentrated in energy, commodities, and transportation (gasoline, for example, rose 56% over the past year, while used cars and trucks were up nearly 30%). That means, that at least in some cases, savvy consumers can take certain steps to minimize the impact of inflation on their pocketbooks.


Its happening in England to

Rising inflation could cut average household incomes by £700, study suggests
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/rising-inflation-could-cut-average-230100349.html

Inflation is on course to increase above 4% in the coming months, reducing average household incomes by £700, research suggests.

The Resolution Foundation said higher than expected inflation poses more of a challenge to household incomes than to the Bank of England.

The think tank said UK inflation has mirrored trends in the United States, when the rate is increasing.


It added that near-term inflationary pressures in the UK are less stark than the US.

The Foundation’s analysis showed that while the UK is unlikely to experience the same inflation peaks seen in the US, if commodity prices remain at their current levels, CPI inflation could rise above 4% later this year, more than double the rate of inflation forecast by the Bank of England for the third quarter.

James Smith, research director at the Resolution Foundation, said: “With the US experiencing the fastest rise in inflation in nearly half a century, and the UK also experiencing sharp increases, many people are getting increasingly worried about a possible price spiral.

“While UK inflationary pressures are nothing like as stark as the US, we could still see inflation breaching 4% this summer, a figure well in excess of the OBR and Bank’s expectations.
 
i don't think it's gonna be that bad - unless we really do raise minimum wage.

the numbers we're seeing are coming from deflationary period to an inflationary period (yoy), and with yuge temporary factors in both (covid [shutdowns and subsequent stimulus/etc], supply shock from retarded automakers' just-in-time inventories, suez canal, etc)

but if we fuck with wages, it's all getting destabilized.
 
In the US, Trump started it by giving stimulus money to many people who didn't even need it. Biden has continued it and has ramped it up ten fold with his proposed spending that will blow the debt and inflation out of the water. States are giving people a ton of money to stay home and not work. When people aren't working, things aren't being produced. When things aren't being produced and people still have a lot of money, supply and demand kicks in and we get hyperinflation.

The Fed is just kicking the can down the road to hold off inflation as long as possible. All this does is make the bubble burst even bigger in the end. The people we voted for have failed us.
 
The Fed is just kicking the can down the road to hold off inflation as long as possible.

i think the fed's actually been doing a good job (from march 2020 to present) and it's the first time i've ever thought that about the fed. i honestly think jpow felt bad about fucking over the markets in dec 2018 (raised rates [a poor decision, imo] )
 
i think the fed's actually been doing a good job (from march 2020 to present) and it's the first time i've ever thought that about the fed. i honestly think jpow felt bad about fucking over the markets in dec 2018 (raised rates [a poor decision, imo] )

If you're looking at it from the view that they're doing a good job of managing inflation at this very moment, I would agree with you.

But this is going to have long term ramifications in the end.
 
If you're looking at it from the view that they're doing a good job of managing inflation at this very moment, I would agree with you.

But this is going to have long term ramifications in the end.

it may/may not. ironically, i'm actually against the fed and very much in favor of a hard standard for currency (ie: gold standard)... but the one factor that might make all this shit not too bad is that it's all relative - and every other major central bank did the same (cut rates to 0, etc).

<Fedor23>


but i also haven't thought the national debt was ACTUALLY going to be REALLY paid (ie: not just printing the amount of debt) since it hit $4B
 
The Federal Reserve came out this past week saying they were now concerned about inflation going too high. As a result the Federal Reserve said they were moving up their time line for raising interest rates in order and in hopes of lowering inflation rates. If that happens I hope it works.

As many have pointed out the government has increased the money supply by over 30% in the past few months. With more money out there, and only a finite amount of goods, inflation is going to continue to rise higher.

Additionally Biden wants to continue huge government spending programs. If Biden gets his way higher price inflation will continue to grow worse for Americans.
 
The target is 2% annually, but we've been a bit below that, and it's supposed to be an average. Markets are signaling an expectation for 2.2% over the next 10 years. Probably a little above that over the next year.
Aren't you a numbers guy?

What impact well this have compared to what TS posted
 
I don’t see how QS can be sustained forever without consequences. It’s really weird to me

anyways. It’s coming to Japan. JFE a steel company is in negotiations with Toyota. Said their steel prices are too low to stay competitive I teach once a week via a company that does ads and all that for me. They are raising their prices. It’s coming. All this printed money will have an impact. Glad I have a house mortgage. I suspect wages will rise somewhat in the future
 
Aren't you a numbers guy?

What impact well this have compared to what TS posted

Nothing, really. Here's the Fed statement from last week:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20210616a.htm

Basically, we're recovering but there's still some room to go, inflation isn't currently concerning but if it becomes so, they'll raise rates. 10-year expectations as reflected in markets peaked on May 10 (at 2.54%) and have been coming down hard since. Median expectation is no issue at all.
 
The used car market is out of control...
 
In the US, Trump started it by giving stimulus money to many people who didn't even need it.

Imagine living in a reality where the billionaire class increasing their wealth by 54% during a pandemic has no negative economic consequences but some average Joe's getting an extra few hundred dollars a month during a pandemic foretells economic ruin.
 
Idk that much about economics, but my chipotle is more expensive now and that is an outrage.

Prepare to have mind blown:

In 1985 a hamburger at McDonald's cost 77 cents. 77 cents.

Today it is $2.49.

This is the devastating power of inflation.
 
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