Evidence of Jones' Guilt

UsernameLOL said:
You can approximate information you don’t have. The idea is this

say we have 10 data points and we randomly partition the data set into training and testing sets (for instance 8 training points 2 testing points).

If we train the model on the 8 points and it is able to account for the data we put off to the side then there’s a good chance it can account for actual unseen data.

@Alpha_T83 can you chime in? (He has a PhD in data science).
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I do! I'm surprised you remember ;) My PhD supervisor loved that method of analyzing data. He did the 'leave half out' method quite a lot, where you separate it 50/50 (so train on 5, then analyze 5).

It is indeed statistically valid, but there's a caveat: you need to pick your analysis carefully and do it once. Obviously there are many ways to analyze data: If you split data 5 & 5 to train and analyze, but you do 100 different training methods, you will find an excellent 'outcome' in the 5 data points you analyze. However, that could be what we call 'overtrained'. For example, if you had 15 data points and you split them 5/5/5, train on the first 5 100 times and then analyze the 2nd 5 picking the best 'outcome', you're actually likely to get a very bad outcome on the 3rd untested data.
 
@Alpha_T83 i could listen to you talk all day. I graduated recently with my masters in physics and I’m trying to transition to a data science career.

As of right now a lot of Machine Learning techniques seem like “black boxes” to me.

Could you recommend a good intro text to the mathematics behind machine learning approaches?

Also what are the most popular machine learning techniques for extrapolation/time series forecasting?

LSTM seems intriguing to me right now.
 
kflo said:
C’mon. The idea that every time jones sample flagged positive for m3 was because he “missed a spot” is ludicrous.
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That may be ludicrous but what isn't "ludicrous" is the fact that he has ingested in the past so it isn't implausible to believe that he has ingested again and the M3's are from a more recent uptake. You know this, Kflo, once a cheater, you are always "assumed" to be a cheater. You may not be cheating anymore but you lose all benefit of the doubt if you have blood on your hands, again.

The social worker does his welfare check on a "rehabbed" crackhead and finds residue of crack on his bathroom sink.... how many times do you accept the excuse "that is residue from the last time you busted me"?

Motherfucker, don't you ever clean your fucking bathroom???
 
TrueFightFan said:
That may be ludicrous but what isn't "ludicrous" is the fact that he has ingested in the past so it isn't implausible to believe that he has ingested again and the M3's are from a more recent uptake. You know this, Kflo, once a cheater, you are always "assumed" to be a cheater. You may not be cheating anymore but you lose all benefit of the doubt if you have blood on your hands, again.

The social worker does his welfare check on a "rehabbed" crackhead and finds residue of crack on his bathroom sink.... how many times do you accept the excuse "that is residue from the last time you busted me"?

Motherfucker, don't you ever clean your fucking bathroom???
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Ikr
 
TrueFightFan said:
That may be ludicrous but what isn't "ludicrous" is the fact that he has ingested in the past so it isn't implausible to believe that he has ingested again and the M3's are from a more recent uptake. You know this, Kflo, once a cheater, you are always "assumed" to be a cheater. You may not be cheating anymore but you lose all benefit of the doubt if you have blood on your hands, again.

The social worker does his welfare check on a "rehabbed" crackhead and finds residue of crack on his bathroom sink.... how many times do you accept the excuse "that is residue from the last time you busted me"?

Motherfucker, don't you ever clean your fucking bathroom???
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your analogy is leaving out the part where residue of crack is known to be detectable in sinks for years in microscopic quantities........even after it's been cleaned.......
 
kflo said:
your analogy is leaving out the part where residue of crack is known to be detectable in sinks for years in microscopic quantities........even after it's been cleaned.......
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No, I didn't leave anything out. You are assuming a contaminated sink in giving the benefit of the doubt to someone who has been known to use crack. Using your logic, if you've been raped multiple times in a particular alley, no one should, including yourself, doubt that you may be raped again if you return. After awhile, we would assume that you were starting to enjoy it.

Kflo, I understand that there isn't proof positive that he cheated EVERY TIME but there is proof that he cheated multiple times so it seems a bit naive defending him so fervently.
 
TrueFightFan said:
No, I didn't leave anything out. You are assuming a contaminated sink in giving the benefit of the doubt to someone who has been known to use crack. Using your logic, if you've been raped multiple times in a particular alley, no one should, including yourself, doubt that you may be raped again if you return. After awhile, we would assume that you were starting to enjoy it.

Kflo, I understand that there isn't proof positive that he cheated EVERY TIME but there is proof that he cheated multiple times so it seems a bit naive defending him so fervently.
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Again, I’m not defending him fervently. I’m discussing the fact patters, primarily related to the lead up to DC2 fight and after.

Not liking your rape analogy…..

I’m not assuming a contaminated sink. I’m factoring in the fact that coke stays in the sink for years. It’s a relevant piece of information.

Again, it’s not the benefit of the doubt. It’s evaluating what we know and evaluating what the most likely cause is. Again, a lot of people were starting from a position that pulsing was made up and that the detection window for tbol was 40-50 days. So people made their minds up early and have violently reacted to any notion that they were misinformed. Now we know pulsing is real and the detection window is much more than 40-50 days, possibly many years. But people don’t want to hear that. They don’t want to accept it. So they keep screaming he’s a cheater so that the actual fact pattern doesn’t actually matter, since he’s been suspended 2x for cheating……

Labels are easy……

Peace……
 
kflo said:
Again, I’m not defending him fervently. I’m discussing the fact patters, primarily related to the lead up to DC2 fight and after.

Not liking your rape analogy…..

I’m not assuming a contaminated sink. I’m factoring in the fact that coke stays in the sink for years. It’s a relevant piece of information.

Again, it’s not the benefit of the doubt. It’s evaluating what we know and evaluating what the most likely cause is. Again, a lot of people were starting from a position that pulsing was made up and that the detection window for tbol was 40-50 days. So people made their minds up early and have violently reacted to any notion that they were misinformed. Now we know pulsing is real and the detection window is much more than 40-50 days, possibly many years. But people don’t want to hear that. They don’t want to accept it. So they keep screaming he’s a cheater so that the actual fact pattern doesn’t actually matter, since he’s been suspended 2x for cheating……

Labels are easy……

Peace……
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Nice, well thought out post but you have to admit that the "pulsing" theory gives him an automatic out for any future use.
 
kflo said:
But if it was such an easy path everyone has the same automatic out today……
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With the "pulsing" theory, unless you catch them with a needle in their ass, then they will always have an "automatic" out.
 
TrueFightFan said:
With the "pulsing" theory, unless you catch them with a needle in their ass, then they will always have an "automatic" out.
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That’s just not accurate though. If you are randomly tested while you are cycling tbol you will fail your test. There’s no out. You fail. You have an out if you only have traces of the long term metabolite in your system. So it’s really not a free pass or an out.
 
kflo said:
That’s just not accurate though. If you are randomly tested while you are cycling tbol you will fail your test. There’s no out. You fail. You have an out if you only have traces of the long term metabolite in your system. So it’s really not a free pass or an out.
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Maybe I'm missing something, brother, but why do they take masking agents? If the original M3 date was thought to be 40-60 days and now they've extended it to years, why mask anymore?
 
TrueFightFan said:
Maybe I'm missing something, brother, but why do they take masking agents? If the original M3 date was thought to be 40-60 days and now they've extended it to years, why mask anymore?
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Who said they are masking it?
 
kflo said:
That’s just not accurate though. If you are randomly tested while you are cycling tbol you will fail your test. There’s no out. You fail. You have an out if you only have traces of the long term metabolite in your system. So it’s really not a free pass or an out.
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I specialize in simple solutions to complex problems and I have one for UFC/USADA. If you test positive for a banned substance and are found to have ingested it intentionally, you are banned from competition for a certain period of time or until the banned substance is undetectable for a period of time, (maybe 6 months). Whichever is longer. Period.
 
TrueFightFan said:
If a fighter is taking Tbol, does he have to mask?
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I’m not aware of undetectable masking agents that mask m3 or other tbol metabolites. Rodchenkov changed the Russian cocktail from tbol to tren many years ago because he knew tbol was detectable for much longer and couldn’t be masked.
 
Captain Herb said:
I specialize in simple solutions to complex problems and I have one for UFC/USADA. If you test positive for a banned substance and are found to have ingested it intentionally, you are banned from competition for a certain period of time or until the banned substance is undetectable for a period of time, (maybe 6 months). Whichever is longer. Period.
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We know you really don’t care about the athletes or the truth so if they get fucked just to make herb feel better you are cool with that.
 
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