UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier

carolinagrapple said:
James Lynch hinted that Kelly may be fighting injured. Also I feel like O'Malley is like Mr Glass from the movie "unbreakable", a random TKO from injury is always live
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what did Lynch say? I was seriously considering Kelly as a bet
 
guesswhoseback said:
Pena is a wrestler so If she can possibly lay ontop of nunes the first rd lol she has a chance of lasting over 1.5 I think
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I don't think Pena is good or strong enough to get Nunes to the ground tbh. I understand why she lobbied so hard to fight Nunes, but in doing so she's gonna look stupid when she loses in 1. This is coming from someone who wants to see Nunes lose because I'm tired of hearing all these announcers call her the GOAT every single time they mention her name (even with a loss I know they'll still say it). Hopefully Shevchenko is up next, it's been the most logical fight to make for awhile.
 


Charles’ minimal head movement and no proper body defense has me leaning Dustin now.
 
GoldenWolf87 said:
Knowing that Paiva had being training at very good fight gym. I would take Paiva at underdog moneyline, maybe ITD early or Dec if it goes that way Paiva has wrestling background and in the past he had three submission wins.

If this thing goes to the ground there is a likely chance he might go for the TD if he goes there.

Hasn't Tuivasa withdrawn over covid? someone claimed that he had withdrawn? i haven't seen much news on that.
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Apologies if someone has mentioned this as I'm popping in and quickly skimmed the thread but the thing I love about Paiva at those odds is he's just fought an unorthodox striker from the same gym as O'Malley and got the win in a close fight. The decision was arguable but it shows he can deal with that style far better than the odds suggest imo.
 
Aside from Paiva I like.

Blanchfield - Striking with Miranda shouldn't go massively either way (neither is that refined in that regard) but Erin does have head kick KO's and I think when they hit the mat she's slightly the better grappler and she's also good off her back, been training with Danaher for a long time and it'll be hard for Miranda to control her.

Ponzinibbio - Geoff has all sorts of shit going on at the moment, who knows how hard he's been able to train and Santiago is someone who'll come forward and test the fuck out of your cardio.

Ige - Far too undervalued imo, he's got a solid chin and an extremely high workrate, poses a lot of the same issues that Burgos did with more variety in offence (although less range) and is less hittable and that was a pretty close fight for Josh.

Sakai - Should be too technically refined for Tuivasa imo, he's a big step up from getting caught by Greg Hardy, not sure why Tai is the favourite here.

Muniz - Not sure what people pushing the odds are seeing in Anders in this one. He's a hard working dude and brings the fight to people but Muniz is on fire lately.
 
Need to rebound on this last two cards of the year after last weeks debacle.Like Sakai and Muniz too.Perez should win comfortably.Over 1,5 on Munoz/Cruz passes 90% of time.Skipping on Sugar Sean,he should win but Paiva is tough and will pressure him,however except maybe a little stab at his R3 prop still wouldn't play him,if Philips didn't do stupid spinning shit and gassed himself he would off won easily.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Apologies if someone has mentioned this as I'm popping in and quickly skimmed the thread but the thing I love about Paiva at those odds is he's just fought an unorthodox striker from the same gym as O'Malley and got the win in a close fight. The decision was arguable but it shows he can deal with that style far better than the odds suggest imo.
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That first round was enough for me to pass on him though, and I bet Paiva against Kyler. He got hurt way too often for my liking.

O'Malley might let him off the hook, but that also means he won't blow his gas tank like Phillips did, which would be bad news for Paiva. That being said, I feel like this fight hitting the scorecards is safe enough a prediction for me.
 
Thesnake101 said:
That first round was enough for me to pass on him though, and I bet Paiva against Kyler. He got hurt way too often for my liking.

O'Malley might let him off the hook, but that also means he won't blow his gas tank like Phillips did, which would be bad news for Paiva. That being said, I feel like this fight hitting the scorecards is safe enough a prediction for me.
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I do slightly favour O'Malley to win, it's just I think the price on Paiva is at least a point off, so I think it's a value for money bet.
 
How do you guys feel about Kai Kara France?
 
Can somebody convince me not to put my child's savings pot on Jordan Wright to get KO'd please.
 
Pena has always looked so unathletic on the feet. She can't help but charge ahead and throw combinations. She never looks comfortable. Nunes is going to hurt her bad. I think this is just as easy as Anderson for her. I dont see how she lasts past the 2nd round.
 
Was Pena Shevchenko's return-from-injury match? I remember in that return match, she seemed very happy to play it somewhat cautiously. I also remember them hying up Pena so much in the first round and in between 1 and 2. The odds dropped RIDICULOUSLY low on Shevchenko, and I piled on happily.. easy win just not aggressive in looking for a finish.

EDIT: I'll leave this incorrect post here, but I was thinking of Jennifer Maia it appears.
 
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I think Nunes is more than capable of blitzing Pena and knocking her out in under a minute but I just have the feeling Nunes gonna play with her food and give Pena a prolonged beating cause of all the shit talking she has done.

So I think Pena survives and goes over a round and a half.
 
Bubzeh said:
Can somebody convince me not to put my child's savings pot on Jordan Wright to get KO'd please.
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Jordan Wright is a terrible nail but an underrated hammer. He has powerful, fast, lengthy unorthodox strikes and excellent finishing instincts. If you are going to bet your life savings on anything in that fight, bet on it not going the distance. And i recommend just skipping if the line is anywhere above -265 ish.
 
Joon Cha said:
Jordan Wright is a terrible nail but an underrated hammer. He has powerful, fast, lengthy unorthodox strikes and excellent finishing instincts. If you are going to bet your life savings on anything in that fight, bet on it not going the distance. And i recommend just skipping if the line is anywhere above -265 ish.
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Thanks for your reccomendations I will consider it
 
My current picks (which could easily change haha)

Robertson/Cachoeira: Still on the fence. Cachoeira power of strikes vs Robertsons cardio+wrestling. Livebet if possible.
Costa/Kelley: Costa
Hall/Minner: Hall (Live Bet though, as Hall is 36 and might be over the hill any day)
Perez/Schnell: I actually like Schnell here. I think his size+power will be the difference maker. Kinda surprised so many are favoring Perez.
Maverick/Blanchfield: Fight goes the Distance seems like a good one. Or go and get a drink/food instead.
Muniz/Anders: Muniz
Silva/Wright: Fight does not go the distance seems the safest. Both have killer instinct+fight ending capabilities.
Sakai/Tuivasa: Livebet, anything could happen in this one, so maybe best to avoid it as well. Could be highlight reel stuff, or some boring garbage.
Munhoz/Cruz: Cruz (Reach advantage will be significant). Maybe wait a round to see if his body is still holding up though.
Emmett/Ige: Ige (I like his speed and setups). Emmett seems too slow and predictable in my opinion.
Paiva/O'Malley: O'Malley. Could get the stoppage as well.
France/Garbrandt: Kara-France. Garbrandt post Covid was gassed after 1 round with Font's pace. I think this cut makes him chinnier and the new speed+pace will still be hard for him to keep up with. Might be better to LiveBet this one though, just to be safe.
Neal/Ponzibibo: I actually would favor Neal, but with all of this drama going on in his life I don't feel safe with the bet. Live Bet again.
Nunes/Pena: Nunes. Probably gets the stoppage sometime within 5 rounds.
Poirier/Oliveira: I'm leaning Oliveira based on skill and momentum, but I can't overlook the huge durability advantage that Poirier will be bringing. Does Not Go The Distance seems like a safe bet. Maybe I'll start with a bet on Charles and try to hedge it with a DNGTD bet.
 
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