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I don't want to get into whether it's a good or bad idea to cancel student loans. That shit can be debated in the war room.
But since it's happening I thought it might be good to discuss the economic impact and how we can prepare.
1. My first thought is that it will make inflation worse, as people suddenly having more money tends to do. Just like we saw with all the pandemic stimulus money.
2. Also, we've had a labor shortage as people who got stimulus money were able to hold out longer for better job offers or possibly leave the labor force for good as they used the money to start their own businesses. Cancelling student loans will have much the same effect, making the labor shortage worse. So companies will just have to pay higher wages, right? Not so fast.
3. If inflation is going to get worse, the fed will have to keep raising interest rates on top of the big rate hikes they've done already. This will probably make the stock market go down. And when that happens, companies tighten their belts, stop hiring new people, and even lay off employees.
4. When that happens, our labor shortage can quickly turn into a labor surplus. And high unemployment will be the final domino. Once that falls we'll undeniably be in full recession mode, if not depression mode.
And this sucks because there's no good way to prepare. If you sell all your stock to avoid the crash, you'll be left holding cash, which will erode in a high inflation environment. So you're kinda fucked either way.
But since it's happening I thought it might be good to discuss the economic impact and how we can prepare.
1. My first thought is that it will make inflation worse, as people suddenly having more money tends to do. Just like we saw with all the pandemic stimulus money.
2. Also, we've had a labor shortage as people who got stimulus money were able to hold out longer for better job offers or possibly leave the labor force for good as they used the money to start their own businesses. Cancelling student loans will have much the same effect, making the labor shortage worse. So companies will just have to pay higher wages, right? Not so fast.
3. If inflation is going to get worse, the fed will have to keep raising interest rates on top of the big rate hikes they've done already. This will probably make the stock market go down. And when that happens, companies tighten their belts, stop hiring new people, and even lay off employees.
4. When that happens, our labor shortage can quickly turn into a labor surplus. And high unemployment will be the final domino. Once that falls we'll undeniably be in full recession mode, if not depression mode.
And this sucks because there's no good way to prepare. If you sell all your stock to avoid the crash, you'll be left holding cash, which will erode in a high inflation environment. So you're kinda fucked either way.