UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2, October 21, Abu Dhabi

Jasper_RB81 said:
It's so weird that they have fought before... doesn't feel right.
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Weirdest part is Kamaru nearly icing him and forcing Strickland to give him a bj mid fight.

I think come fight night I might gake Kamaru's odds against Khamzat. He looked washed against Leon, but I chalk it up to Edwards' own skills rather than Kamaru suddenly falling off a cliff, and getting Usman as such a big dog would've been crazy during his run, so I have to play it.

I'm also biased though, so who knows.
 
Put down my first bet for the event.

1.5U on Sharabutdin Magomedov Win over Bruno Silva + Victoria Dudakova Win over Jinh Yu Frey @-105

I think the hype is real with Sharabutdin to be honest. Especially in this type of match up. The UFC is basically doing what they did with Perriera here. They want to make sure that Sharabutdin gets a win and doesn't get grappled for 3 rounds. I like what I see from Sharabutdin. He is fast and accurate and in this fight he shouldn't have to worry about the takedowns.
Silva has shown a pretty bad gas tank in fights, so even if the fight gets extended I would favour Sharabutdin. Silva hits hard and for sure has a punchers chance in rR1, but I think Sharabutdin is good enough to avoid it.
UFC usually gets what they want and I think they are pretty keen on getting a win for Sharabutdin in Abu Dhabi. This guy is very marketable as the one eyed bad boy who KOs people both in the cage and outside of the cage.

I was pretty high on Dudakova for her fight against Nunes and had a few different bets on her. Now we didn't really get to see anything in that fight. I was willing to bet her against Nunes and this almost feels like a step down in compeition. Not sure how a Frey win looks like here. I guess it have to be sprawl and brawl to a decision win, but i think more likely is that Dudakova gets this to the ground and either finishes Frey or wins a decision.
I'm not high on Frey at this point and think this is her last fight in the UFC. If she can't win against Reed or Demopoulos (Maybe won this fight) who should be best possible matchups for her, I don't see her winning against Dudakova.
 
Jasper_RB81 said:
I was pretty high on Dudakova for her fight against Nunes and had a few different bets on her. Now we didn't really get to see anything in that fight. I was willing to bet her against Nunes and this almost feels like a step down in compeition. Not sure how a Frey win looks like here. I guess it have to be sprawl and brawl to a decision win, but i think more likely is that Dudakova gets this to the ground and either finishes Frey or wins a decision.
I'm not high on Frey at this point and think this is her last fight in the UFC. If she can't win against Reed or Demopoulos (Maybe won this fight) who should be best possible matchups for her, I don't see her winning against Dudakova.
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I agree Dudakova is likely to win, using her grappling, but her striking is very underdeveloped and she will be at a meaningful disadvantage if the fight stays standing which is why I wouldn't parlay and/or lay chalk on her.

If Dudakova gets Frey down she probably just pounds her out or subs her so I would play Dudakova's ITD line over her ML. Frey is a small 115er and Dudakova is one of the bigger 115ers in the UFC (competed at 135 & 125 as an amateur).

I would also be on the lookout for Dudakova's KO/TKO line being mispriced since a GNP finish is just as likely as a sub imo.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
I agree Dudakova is likely to win, using her grappling, but her striking is very underdeveloped and she will be at a meaningful disadvantage if the fight stays standing which is why I wouldn't parlay and/or lay chalk on her.

If Dudakova gets Frey down she probably just pounds her out or subs her so I would play Dudakova's ITD line over her ML. Frey is a small 115er and Dudakova is one of the bigger 115ers in the UFC (competed at 135 & 125 as an amateur).

I would also be on the lookout for Dudakova's KO/TKO line being mispriced since a GNP finish is just as likely as a sub imo.
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Agree about the striking of Dudakova, but Frey doesn't have KO power so even if she struggles to get the takedowns at times (which i don't think she will), she is not really in danger of being KOd.
I will most likely add more on Dudakova when the props open up, but for now I'm happy to pay heavy chalk on her ML.
 
Wouldn’t bet big on this card …. I feel like the majority of dogs are very live …

I won’t be able to help myself …. But I’ll play more singles instead of parlays here
 
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Leans.

parlay worthy fighters. Peek, Said, Dumas

am I off?

I think Bruno can upset with a heavy punch but Magomedov in a Muslim country with home court, seems unlikely, i think Mago kos him.

Naimov is a decent fighter and Wood is hittable. I can see a stoppage but Wood is durable, crowd energy on Naimov.

I'm hesitant giving Mokaev 75, he probably should be 60% after that shitty performance against Gordon. Tim is an underrated wrestler and top specialist, but he has a shotty sub defense. Mokaev also has the crowd.

Avoiding Khamzat juice, Usman is still a good fighter. I don't buy he is really washed. I give slight lean to Khamzat because of weight and full training camp. But Usman is better than Burns and we saw how that fight went.

Volk is a hard nose fighter and i dont want the sweat.

Props I like:
Magomedov ko
Dumas Submission (underrated grappling and undervalued sub prop is possible.)
Peek Ko1
Said/Javid points
Ankalaev ko

Passing on main and co.
but
Usman by ko if its over 500+
 
Stat_Collector said:
View attachment 1006512

Leans.

parlay worthy fighters. Peek, Said, Dumas

am I off?

I think Bruno can upset with a heavy punch but Magomedov in a Muslim country with home court, seems unlikely, i think Mago kos him.

Naimov is a decent fighter and Wood is hittable. I can see a stoppage but Wood is durable, crowd energy on Naimov.

I'm hesitant giving Mokaev 75, he probably should be 60% after that shitty performance against Gordon. Tim is an underrated wrestler and top specialist, but he has a shotty sub defense. Mokaev also has the crowd.

Avoiding Khamzat juice, Usman is still a good fighter. I don't buy he is really washed. I give slight lean to Khamzat because of weight and full training camp. But Usman is better than Burns and we saw how that fight went.

Volk is a hard nose fighter and i dont want the sweat.

Props I like:
Magomedov ko
Dumas Submission (underrated grappling and undervalued sub prop is possible.)
Peek Ko1
Said/Javid points
Ankalaev ko

Passing on main and co.
but
Usman by ko if its over 500+
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Regarding Dumas, I haven’t taped the fight, but man I rate him very poorly as a fighter overall
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Regarding Dumas, I haven’t taped the fight, but man I rate him very poorly as a fighter overall
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his cardio and grappling will be the key here. he keeps his hands up nice and tight to get caught. Abu has a ko chance, his inactivity is a massive concern. I just see Dumas having more dedication to the sport. He has an undisclosed 20+ amateur experience according to him.

I do believe he will just either lay and pray or get a rnc. He attacks those when he chooses to grapple a lot.
 
Victor Henry +320 is insanity.... Am I missing something? Javid is good but who the hell do they think he is???
 
Shelter said:
Yahya is that bad?
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Idn how bad he needs to be, Peek is the slight fav now, has the potential to look big fav. He can lose sure because Yahya like most fighters
is more complete than Peek. He is not physical at all, is chinny and has lost to awful competition.
 
BigSteve said:
Idn how bad he needs to be, Peek is the slight fav now, has the potential to look big fav. He can lose sure because Yahya like most fighters
is more complete than Peek. He is not physical at all, is chinny and has lost to awful competition.
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Fair enough. I’m familiar with Peek from DWCS on and to me he’s just so terrible.

I figured with that in mind and Yahya being from UAE I thought they were trying to give him a layup in front of the home crowd.
 
Shelter said:
Fair enough. I’m familiar with Peek from DWCS on and to me he’s just so terrible.

I figured with that in mind and Yahya being from UAE I thought they were trying to give him a layup in front of the home crowd.
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Yeah I've been thinking about this fight. Peek isn't good and he needs gifts of fights where he can just win with his power. But it looks like Yahya might be that to him. And I'd go as far as saying these odds are pretty nice for Peek here.
 
ExitLUPin said:
Victor Henry +320 is insanity.... Am I missing something? Javid is good but who the hell do they think he is???
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Yeah maybe Javid deserves to be the favorite, I'm not sure, but this line is way too wide. I can almost guarantee Victor Henry will not look +320 (+360 on mine!) and he's a guy who will fight for your money.
 
rev0lver said:
Yeah maybe Javid deserves to be the favorite, I'm not sure, but this line is way too wide. I can almost guarantee Victor Henry will not look +320 (+360 on mine!) and he's a guy who will fight for your money.
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High output, consistent combinations, durable af, good grappling. He was around +400 against Barcelos and won. The performance against past prime Assuncao where he was a massive fave is prob playing a part but that was just an incredible performance by one of the best counterfighters in MMA history who was close to beating Davey Grant too.

Gravely ran him close but Javid doesnt have Gravelys wrestling or TD output. He wont be shooting like a madman. He went to a 29-28 against Gravely himself and his finishing ability is heavily padded by low level comp he fought pre UFC. Hes a point fighter. FGTD will probably be around -300.

I dont think any BW that isnt a strong finisher can cover -450 to -500 against Henry. Like you said he fights for your money and will be going at it.
 
ExitLUPin said:
Victor Henry +320 is insanity.... Am I missing something? Javid is good but who the hell do they think he is???
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Odds definitely long, I'm trying to decide whether it's one of those fights where I think the guy is too long but loses anyway just loses by less than the odds suggested though.

Feel the same way about Tim Elliott
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Odds definitely long, I'm trying to decide whether it's one of those fights where I think the guy is too long but loses anyway just loses by less than the odds suggested though.

Feel the same way about Tim Elliott
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This is how I feel as well, feels like Henry is losing at a very very high clip to Javid... but fight will probably look a lot closer. I can see a a fight where it's fairly even on the feet for long periods of the rounds and then Javid secures a takedown, but not doing much with it on the ground and takes the round (s).
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Odds definitely long, I'm trying to decide whether it's one of those fights where I think the guy is too long but loses anyway just loses by less than the odds suggested though.

Feel the same way about Tim Elliott
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Jasper_RB81 said:
This is how I feel as well, feels like Henry is losing at a very very high clip to Javid... but fight will probably look a lot closer. I can see a a fight where it's fairly even on the feet for long periods of the rounds and then Javid secures a takedown, but not doing much with it on the ground and takes the round (s).
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After seeing Farid outclass Kleydson my gut is telling me this might be Javid's first UFC finish.

Might take a little stab at his itd odds.
 
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