Media Sportsbook opening lines has Chimaev as a massive betting favourite over Strickland?

octagonation

octagonation

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Some of the bookmakers have no faith in Strickland and I remember against Izzy some of them had him as gigantic underdog like 7 to 1 dog. But in this Chimaev bout Sportsbook has Chimaev 4 to 1 favourite over Strickland.

I don't agree with it and for me I would have put Chimaev as a small favourite at -150 maximum but the -380 is not realistic for me especially how Strickland has made lately a career out of proving doubters wrong. He beat Imavov, Abus and Adesanya where he was counted out in all 3 fights and honestly he shouldn't be a major underdog in any bouts untill he runs into a losing streak

 
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svmr_db said:
Those were opening odds, they didn't last for very long. People came in and dumped tons of money on Strickland to move the line. Anybody who knows MMA knew Chimaev won't end up being that big of a favorite by fight night.

He's currently -310 on Draft Kings but only -220 on BetOnline apparently.

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https://fightodds.io/fighters/khamzat-chimaev-35013
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Sportsbook didn't go down but stationary.

Yes the Betonline one went even down to like -135 but rebounded hours ago to -220 which was approx around the right odds atleast for me I mean the -135.

Yes alot of people dropped money on Strickland
 
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octagonation said:
If it was Adesanya the odds would have been like -105 Chimaev maximum meaning a win either way wouldn't shock them. I would have made it like to -120
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The chances Chimaev finishes either Strickland or Adesanya in the first round are too high to only make him a -120 favorite imo. Not saying it's a certainty he'd win either fight but I think around -200 ish is reasonable, fight will lean further and further toward Strickland winning if he can stretch the fight out.
 
Chimaev is a bad matchup for Sean. Usman already grapplefucked him at WW once. Chimaev can do the same at MW. The bad cardio thing at this point is still a myth. Sean is not a finisher. Odds look about ok imo.
 
Young Calf Kick said:
Chimaev is a bad matchup for Sean. Usman already grapplefucked him at WW once. Chimaev can do the same at MW. The bad cardio thing at this point is still a myth. Sean is not a finisher. Odds look about ok imo.
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Idk about it being a myth, he definitely slowed down against Burns too and is very sloppy on the feet (especially as the fight progresses).. Only times he went the distance were very competitive fights.
 
FlyingDeathKick said:
Idk about it being a myth, he definitely slowed down against Burns too and is very sloppy on the feet (especially as the fight progresses).. Only times he went the distance were very competitive fights.
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Sure he slowed down there a bit but not enough for me to label it as bad cardio altogether, 3rd round afaik he was more active again, and it’s not like it’s Conor levels of cardio dropoff

but then again, time will tell, I just don’t see what Strickland has for him. He’ll get Khabib’d
 
Young Calf Kick said:
Sure he slowed down there a bit but not enough for me to label it as bad cardio altogether, 3rd round afaik he was more active again, and it’s not like it’s Conor levels of cardio dropoff

but then again, time will tell, I just don’t see what Strickland has for him. He’ll get Khabib’d
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You should at least be able to admit Khamzat appears to be a frontrunner, he's not the same guy in the third round that he is in the first. Including the Burns fight.

Strickland may not be a big KO artist but he has a great gas tank and knows how to manage his energy output. If Strickland could survive Khamzat's initial onslaught like Usman did he has a good chance to really pour the pressure on Chimaev the longer it goes.
 
svmr_db said:
You should at least be able to admit Khamzat appears to be a frontrunner, he's not the same guy in the third round that he is in the first. Including the Burns fight.

Strickland may not be a big KO artist but he has a great gas tank and knows how to manage his energy output. If Strickland could survive Khamzat's initial onslaught like Usman did he has a good chance to really pour the pressure on Chimaev the longer it goes.
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He outstruck Burns in the 3rd round though sir.
 
svmr_db said:
You should at least be able to admit Khamzat appears to be a frontrunner, he's not the same guy in the third round that he is in the first. Including the Burns fight.

Strickland may not be a big KO artist but he has a great gas tank and knows how to manage his energy output. If Strickland could survive Khamzat's initial onslaught like Usman did he has a good chance to really pour the pressure on Chimaev the longer it goes.
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Of course he is a front runner. And I’m not saying he hasn’t got some holes in his game either.

But what people don’t seem to understand or just conveniently forget, is that it isn’t that simple to just survive the early rounds and you’re fine being the opponent. Surviving the early Khamzat storm and getting chain wrestled in the process also costs a lot of energy. This is the exact reason why Khabib was as effective as he was. Khamzat is constantly looking for the submission. If you make a mistake, you’re done, and if you survive, chances are you’re probably very tired making you less of a threat later on.
 
Strickland by decision, easy money
xrd-exrd.gif
 
Chimaev should be a massive betting favourite over every single fighter on the roster - regardless of weight division.

And everybody knows that. I know it. You know it. And that guy over there knows it.

ESPECIALLY that guy over there knows it.
 
Young Calf Kick said:
Of course he is a front runner. And I’m not saying he hasn’t got some holes in his game either.

But what people don’t seem to understand or just conveniently forget, is that it isn’t that simple to just survive the early rounds and you’re fine being the opponent. Surviving the early Khamzat storm and getting chain wrestled in the process also costs a lot of energy. This is the exact reason why Khabib was as effective as he was. Khamzat is constantly looking for the submission. If you make a mistake, you’re done, and if you survive, chances are you’re probably very tired making you less of a threat later on.
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Khamzat is more like Conor than you think, he's got about 7 minutes of absolute hell to unleash on his opponent and then the chances of a finish drop off drastically.

Khabib on the other hand has some finishes in the 3rd and 4th round, I don't see Khamzat getting many that far into a fight especially now that he will have to fight top middleweights.

He's just not efficient with his energy and his chances to win will dwindle every round a championship fight continues to go on, where as Strickland's chances will increase.

I still think Chimaev wins that fight if I had to pick but like I said my confidence in him would drop pretty significantly if Strickland could even survive to the 3rd round.
 
Khamzat has insane openers.

He closed -500 against Burns, -350 against Usman and didnt come close to matching either price. He only does against much weaker fighters he can physically dominate on the ground.

When Khamzat was scheduled to fight Leon 2 years back his opening line was similar to this Swan one.
 
svmr_db said:
Khamzat is more like Conor than you think, he's got about 7 minutes of absolute hell to unleash on his opponent and then the chances of a finish drop off drastically.

Khabib on the other hand has some finishes in the 3rd and 4th round, I don't see Khamzat getting many that far into a fight especially now that he will have to fight top middleweights.

He's just not efficient with his energy and his chances to win will dwindle every round a championship fight continues to go on, where as Strickland's chances will increase.

I still think Chimaev wins that fight if I had to pick but like I said my confidence in him would drop pretty significantly if Strickland could even survive to the 3rd round.
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I'm not sure it's about being efficient or not. I think his stamina just isn't great and COVID probably impacted it too.

Khamzat round 1 and 2
Sean TKO rounds 3, 4, 5

Guaranteed profit playing this lol
 
I'd definitely put a bet on those odds.

Chimaev pretty much needs a finish in the 1st or 2nd round, odds should be much closer.
 
Likely Khamzat by sub in the 1st or 2nd or Strickland by decision.

I lean toward the latter honestly.
 
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