Opinion The War Room Bet Thread V7

[Jack V Savage]

12-1 is impressive. Notable posters in the record also.

Real record (precedes official counting) is better too. Cubo, Greoric, Viva, CMart, among others.

The Greoric situation was weird because he first said he misunderstood the bet, which made no sense to me. We'd been discussing his claim that the biggest recession in history would begin in 2015, and I said that while I didn't think GDP growth was predictable, it was a safe bet it would be positive, and that was what we bet on. He claimed he was interpreting me as saying "GDP growth in 2015 will be higher than GDP growth in 2014." He said he'd pay up anyway (sig, and a thread started on why he was wrong), and I said he didn't have to. Then he got mad about something else and demanded that I pay up, which restarted the discussion. And people aligned with him told him he was wrong, which he accepted, again offering to pay up, which I again declined. We're nearing 10 years since that thread, and the super recession still hasn't happened, plus the interest-rate increase that he and Zeke insisted was impossible has happened (because the Fed was supposedly propping up the bubble economy--never really a coherent story there). He was an odious presence here (really nasty guy, with a poor ability to respond to real arguments), but it's too bad he's gone because it would be interesting to see if he's learned.

 

[Jack V Savage]

I've informally had 75% certainty as my threshold for being willing to bet, but I would expect a better record than that because that's a minimum, and there are things I regard as locks mixed in.

My loss to Rob was on something that I thought was a sub-25% probability. The Ukraine invasion really fucked me. I did predict above-target inflation for the first time in a while, but I figured Fed actions would work faster, and I didn't anticipate the compounding effect of supply-chain snarls (consumer spending coming roaring back was expected and I expected that to have inflationary effects, but it additionally led to supply-chain issues that further drove up prices). The more fundamental debate--about whether higher inflation was embedded or something that would pass as supply-chain issues were fixed and consumer spending leveled out--is I think settled in my favor.

 

[Lead]

Real record (precedes official counting) is better too. Cubo, Greoric, Viva, CMart, among others.

The Greoric situation was weird because he first said he misunderstood the bet, which made no sense to me. We'd been discussing his claim that the biggest recession in history would begin in 2015, and I said that while I didn't think GDP growth was predictable, it was a safe bet it would be positive, and that was what we bet on. He claimed he was interpreting me as saying "GDP growth in 2015 will be higher than GDP growth in 2014." He said he'd pay up anyway (sig, and a thread started on why he was wrong), and I said he didn't have to. Then he got mad about something else and demanded that I pay up, which restarted the discussion. And people aligned with him told him he was wrong, which he accepted, again offering to pay up, which I again declined. We're nearing 10 years since that thread, and the super recession still hasn't happened, plus the interest-rate increase that he and Zeke insisted was impossible has happened (because the Fed was supposedly propping up the bubble economy--never really a coherent story there). He was an odious presence here (really nasty guy, with a poor ability to respond to real arguments), but it's too bad he's gone because it would be interesting to see if he's learned.

I want to say I remember that but if that was eight years ago, that’s crazy. My timeline for this place is probably all mixed up. Yea, GDP dropping was a very bad idea on his part.

 

[Rob Battisti]

I just came back to say that I’m going to love watching a certain someone eat crow.

 

[Rob Battisti]

@LMP how we feeling?

 

[MMAisGod]

I just came back to say that I’m going to love watching a certain someone eat crow.

Bro how is your name purple?

 

[Rob Battisti]

Bro how is your name purple?

Absolutely no idea.

 

[LMP]

@LMP how we feeling?

It doesn't matter too much to me either way.

 

[Mr Holmes]

I just came back to say that I’m going to love watching a certain someone eat crow.

Who is eating crow and what are the details?

 

[Rob Battisti]

Who is eating crow and what are the details?

A certain JVS was very confident that Bitcoin wouldn’t be at this price point.

 

[Lead]

A certain JVS was very confident that Bitcoin wouldn’t be at this price point.

 

[Lead]

All these bets are end of 24. That’s anticlimactic to find out.

 

[Lead]

I don’t think I can do that Cormier face that many times. 13 months is quite awhile

 

[Rob Battisti]

All these bets are end of 24. That’s anticlimactic to find out.

@LMP is spot but Jack wanted date. Will lose either way unless there is WWIII.

 

[Lead]

@LMP is spot but Jack wanted date. Will lose either way unless there is WWIII.

 

[Jack V Savage]

A certain JVS was very confident that Bitcoin wouldn’t be at this price point.

I was?

 

[Jack V Savage]

@LMP is spot but Jack wanted date. Will lose either way unless there is WWIII.

Why do you think I wanted a date rather than spot?

 

[Jack V Savage]

All these bets are end of 24. That’s anticlimactic to find out.

My view, which Rob is just unable to wrap his head around, has been:

1. The market is fairly efficient, meaning that the best guess for a future price is the current price plus the time value, but:
2. It's highly volatile so it will jump around a lot.

 

[Lead]

My view, which Rob is just unable to wrap his head around, has been:

1. The market is fairly efficient, meaning that the best guess for a future price is the current price plus the time value, but:
2. It's highly volatile so it will jump around a lot.

Yea, I definitely think spotting it made sense cause it does fluctuate a lot. 2024 reveal was anticlimactic though. I thought this was coming close to the date. I can’t believe wai’s last bet is coming up.

 

[LMP]

Why do you think I wanted a date rather than spot?

@Rob Battisti i aint scared homie. Pump and dump as always. Hoped you dumped high so you can buy back in at the low. Guys that keep telling everyone to just hold are fools. With bitcoin you should follow the trends of pumping and dumping.