Official UFC 178 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

[plekz]

I think Romero/Kennedy could be a sleeper for FOTN.. +650 now, I think with Mcgregor/Poier and Cerrone/Alvarez this line might drop (plus both those fights could be over in round 1), if it gets close to +1000, I plan on throwing a stab at it..

I'm having a hard time seeing how a Tim Kennedy fight wins FOTN with the other fights that are on the card, there's really nothing about his way of fighting that is exciting to watch. I expect him to try and smother and fight a really ugly fight with Romero in the hope of tiring and wear him out.

Then again, the other fights can end very abruptly. So like you say if it reaches stupid levels in terms of prop i could see a sprinkle on it.

 

[Goreds1994]

Did this $200 free roll get posted yet?

http://www.kountermove.com/join/326...ll-game-on-ufc-178-johnson-vs-cariaso-T-free/

Card why are you in all of these yet never post them?

 

[EzFlyer]

In regards to what formally was on your sig. And maybe less tips and more your slips, but I enjoyed reading the forums on that page.

ah yea, i thought that's what you meant, honestly i forgot that was on there -- we have a tight-knit group of people there - lots of the regulars and i just text eachother (whatsapp) and voicechat on events, so less posting

 

[PuertoRican]

Did this $200 free roll get posted yet?

http://www.kountermove.com/join/326...ll-game-on-ufc-178-johnson-vs-cariaso-T-free/

Card why are you in all of these yet never post them?

That SOB is secretly building a massive bankroll behind our backs and is looking to take over the world with one big bet on a massive underdog.

 

[EzFlyer]

held decision +415.. stabbing at it, have to

 

[wigglestick]

held decision +415.. stabbing at it, have to

me too im also on him straight up.

 

[Ukram]

weigh ins in 3 hours time

http://www.sherdog.com/videos/backstagepass/UFC-178-Weighin-Video-6757

Should still be a stonking card with
Romero/Kennedy
Mcgregor/Poier
Cerrone/Alvarez

Got a feeling odds will become quickly playable since most fights look back and forth so potential large amounts to loose or gain as is the risk each week lol

I would love to play cowboy but my goodness he is a wild cat even if eddie is tagging cowboy making them odds tempting he can just flick a switch and go killer in 5 seconds cowboys a killer for sure!

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I think Held and Freire is going U1.5

Freire is born wild and Marcin is a finisher. I dunno

 

[Ukram]

Just noticed perhaps a nice line (my bookies opened lines late as usual)

nunes/cat

some good odds if fight does NOT go the distance, both fighters 99% end there fights only nunes got 1 decision a year ago otherwise both fight to win. They looked very serious and strong gals during stare downs, Perhaps worth a play ?

Tim Kennedy v Yoel Romero to go distance perhaps ?
both yoel plays a reserving cardio gameplan and so does tim both guys almost impossible to finish with great chins, I don't believe tim will finish the fight he will play it safe, Yoels pretty strong all round and that stance and distance make it hard for anyone to finish.

Chris= 71% decisions
MM=45% decisions

decisions decisions

 

[iGnP]

@everyone on yoel tomorrow

how sure are you guys in yoel tomorrow? i am on kennedy but everyone who says theyve done extensive research feel as though this fight is yoel's fight to lose. admittedly, i only research a few fights per week and only bet on them as opposed to betting on most of the card. the kennedy/romero fight is not one that i researched this week but i was going to put a small amount down on kennedy. i guess my question to those on romero is, how much of a fav do you think romero SHOULD be based on what you saw in research?

 

[Sushi Mane]

What.....? Are you mad that I disagree with you?

All I stated was that Eddie has the advantage in Boxing, Wrestling, Speed and Power. All very obviously. You or whoever I replied to stated Cerrone has an advantage EVERYWHERE. Whos more out of touch with reality I ask you? If Cerrone has the advantage everywhere why is it a 50/50 fight?

I believe Cerrone has a big advantage in BJJ, especially off his back and if he gets Eddie on his back Eddie is as good as done. I think if Eddie is on top he will win the ground exchange by GNP and playing defense. He won't try to sub Cerrone unless Cerrone is hurt. Cerrone also has the advantage on the feet if Eddie fights cautiously.

As far as the odds and what I would cap it at, initially when I knew the fight was final I was expecting it to be -230/+175 for Eddie. After hearing very logical breakdowns by a lot of knowledgable posters as well as my own beliefs I think the odds should be around -200/+150ish for Eddie. I think Eddie wins this fight 6-8 times out of 10.

-??? no im not mad at all idk where you got that impression. Literally i the quote (regarding another bet) I posted that people disagree about teams (fighters) and its normal. Tone can be hard to read online of course but I didnt mean for it to look aggressive, just wanted to ask questions regarding your confidence.
-you're definitely referring to a different poster because earlier I conceded the power and speed advantage to eddie. Additionally I questioned your confidence using the 50/50 example and stating that I believed thinking that this fight should be capped anywhere past +/-200 was pretty far out there based on current info.
-Thanks was curious about your view from an odds perspective. personally on paper i see this as close to dead even but I like cowboys momentum, activeness, and ufc experience. Such a tough ufc debut for eddie not to mention the relative layoff and other questions. Thats why im taking cerrone but I expect an exciting, high paced fight that probably ends in the 2nd or 3rd. GL

Edit: Fwiw i capped at -140 cowboy before reading into it on here.

 

[iGnP]

also, anyone taking a stab at krause by (t)ko at +1240? hasnt masvidal been a bit chinny in recent fights?

 

[iGnP]

@sushi

Spoiler

do you wanna cap the NFL games next week before lines are released like you suggested?

 

[Ukram]

https://twitter.com/CatZingano/status/515192897629872128/photo/1

made weight

 

[Card]

THE CONNOISSEUR'S GUIDE TO UFC 178 By Jack Slack

http://fightland.vice.com/blog/the-connoisseurs-guide-to-ufc-178

 

[Sushi Mane]

@everyone on yoel tomorrow

how sure are you guys in yoel tomorrow? i am on kennedy but everyone who says theyve done extensive research feel as though this fight is yoel's fight to lose. admittedly, i only research a few fights per week and only bet on them as opposed to betting on most of the card. the kennedy/romero fight is not one that i researched this week but i was going to put a small amount down on kennedy. i guess my question to those on romero is, how much of a fav do you think romero SHOULD be based on what you saw in research?

feeling the same. after watching him v brunson I wanted to bet kennedy right away. I also see kennedy's line getting to - before it starts. I havnt seen Kennedy bisping tho and I heard he didnt look great which is pretty strange sounding.. Like i said before, Yoel looked durable, strong, and powerful but had really exaggerated head movement and fought off balance alot. He also was take down twice with relative ease and his takedow attempts were easily read and stuffed. Maybe just a bad day for him lol, if so thats scary because the mauling he ended it with was vicious. Blood and poo flying everywhere... :icon_chee

 

[Ukram]

@everyone on yoel tomorrow

how sure are you guys in yoel tomorrow? i am on kennedy but everyone who says theyve done extensive research feel as though this fight is yoel's fight to lose. admittedly, i only research a few fights per week and only bet on them as opposed to betting on most of the card. the kennedy/romero fight is not one that i researched this week but i was going to put a small amount down on kennedy. i guess my question to those on romero is, how much of a fav do you think romero SHOULD be based on what you saw in research?

you gotta read thru 27 pages to find out :icon_chee

Goodfella/12thman on Yoel and so are many regulars, but a few also on Tim seems to be almost even perhaps a bit more on yoel last few 10 pages though.

Would like haz opinion but he seems to have got busy this week.

Also we no longer have barry's bets guys left 4eva :icon_conf

 

[Sushi Mane]

@sushi

Spoiler

do you wanna cap the NFL games next week before lines are released like you suggested?

yes definitely, its been so helpful.

https://twitter.com/CatZingano/status/515192897629872128/photo/1

made weight

Hematch Please

 

[Ukram]

feeling the same. after watching him v brunson I wanted to bet kennedy right away. I also see kennedy's line getting to - before it starts. I havnt seen Kennedy bisping tho and I heard he didnt look great which is pretty strange sounding.. Like i said before, Yoel looked durable, strong, and powerful but had really exaggerated head movement and fought off balance alot. He also was take down twice with relative ease and his takedow attempts were easily read and stuffed. Maybe just a bad day for him lol, if so thats scary because the mauling he ended it with was vicious. Blood and poo flying everywhere... :icon_chee

Kennedy already said he expects fetal matter on his elbows at one point.

Guys going to try and grapple or wet blanket yoel or land the heavy shot.
But looking at yoels stance he keeps distance and range quite well and is fast and strong also likes dancing and waiting for the counter. I am starting to like the fight going to distance play more since both guys are tough to get a W over and both play a cardio game plan too well....

 

[Oblivian]

I think Held and Freire is going U1.5

Freire is born wild and Marcin is a finisher. I dunno

Lol - you described that perfectly. That's exactly how I feel too. After rewatching Freire/Woodard, it's hard to see Freire trying to slow the fight down against a guy that pushes forward like Held. Freire just can't help himself.