Elections 2020 Democratic Primary Thread v3

[waiguoren]

Correction: Net profit >$2900 if Sanders wins.

==========

More idiocy here from the Elizabeth Warren campaign. She "plans" to amend the Constitution to eliminate the electoral college. Total pie-in-the-sky dreaming.

 

[Trotsky]

Mr. Trot is coming around to seeing the race my way. Better late than never.

====================
My Current bets:


April 15 Bernard Sanders +410 $2439.02
May 19 Peter Buttigieg +550 $1818.18
August 31 Peter Buttigieg +2000 $500
September 20 Peter Buttigieg +2026 $493.58
September 25 Elizabeth Warren +123 $4268

Net profit if Buttigieg wins: >$22,000
Net profit if Sanders wins: >$2,400
Net profit if Warren wins: $0
Net profit if anyone else wins: -$9500

You've been much more optimistic about Sanders and much more skeptical of Biden than I am.

I also really hope Buttigieg doesn't win, because I think he's a turd.

 

[ShadowRun]

Correction: Net profit >$2900 if Sanders wins.

==========

More idiocy here from the Elizabeth Warren campaign. She "plans" to amend the Constitution to eliminate the electoral college. Total pie-in-the-sky dreaming.

Yea she’s scary, she sold her soul.

 

[method115]

Butti has jumped a lot in the polls. He's less than 3 behind Warren who somehow fell like 14 points.

 

[PEB]

Bernie's support in the deep South is huge vs other democrats.

 

[PEB]

Bloomberg moving way up in the polls.

https://thehill.com/sites/default/files/dem-pref.jpg

 

[Fawlty]

Good quick history lesson on the evolution of the direct election of senators:

https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/the-controversy-over-the-direct-election-of-senators


I think one could make a strong case that direct election of any body or person who has effectively unlimited veto power is critical to a truly representative democracy.

 

[tatanos]

 

[tatanos]

Bloomberg moving way up in the polls.

https://thehill.com/sites/default/files/dem-pref.jpg

Here’s another poll coming out at a similar time for reference.

 

[LiquidityTrap]

I've noticed that panelists on MSNBC, CNN, NBC, ABC and PBS have claimed that Elizabeth Warren's plunge is due to her embrace of M4A and her failure to defend it effectively.

I think it's possible that the opposite is true: Warren's abandoning of Medicare for All in favor of a public option is causing her to hemorrhage "progressive" support. Of course, both could be true.

If the second explanation is correct, this would be similar to the DNA test thing: it seems Elizabeth Warren has a tendency to overreact when pressured. She should never have released her DNA test results, and she should never have backtracked from M4A.

Her backtrack leaves Sanders as the only serious candidate who supports M4A. This puts him in a lane of his own. The mainstream press seems to be sleeping on Sanders for the most part, but I think he has a serious chance to win.

 

[Andy Capp]

It's nuts, and also is confusing in that they use the left/right access in a way that superficially resembles the usual scale but is fundamentally different.

*axis

 

[Andy Capp]

Well put. So can we have that? Can we cover all with minimum catastrophic coverage while having supplemental coverage whether through employers or self pay?

We have pretty much that system here in Canada. It seems to work.

 

[Jack V Savage]

*axis

Yikes! Don't know how that happened.

 

[Rational Poster]

Yea she’s scary, she sold her soul.

Direct voting is only terrifying for people with bad ideas that cannot get elected without gerrymandering and voter suppression.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Yea she’s scary, she sold her soul.

Dean Cain doesn't have a good handle on what our founders thought. There's no evidence that they wanted a big disparity in voter weighting by state. They imagined a system where there would be no parties and voters would vote for electors to use their own judgment, and electors represented equal numbers of citizens (winner take all by state didn't become the norm until 1824, and it wasn't until the House size was capped that we started getting heavily unequal representation by state).

 

[Trotsky]

the left/right access

*axis

 

[Andy Capp]

Yikes! Don't know how that happened.

I suspected autocorrect fuckery and I don't usually flag those, but in this case I didn't want anyone else reading it to learn a bad lesson (or reinforce one) based upon your overall reputation.

Interestingly, this was a segment on the CBC recently, "Apostrophe Protection Society shuts down after 18 years, blaming 'ignorance and laziness'". Hilariously, they said they received a lot of email decrying the lack of care for "proper English" these days but they all had errors.

--Captain Pedantic​

 

[Trotsky]

Guys, I think I have to report this thread to the mods and/or police, since Crazy Diamond just murdered JVS and took a big ol' dump on his chest.

 

[Fawlty]

Guys, I think I have to report this thread to the mods and/or police, since Crazy Diamond just murdered JVS and took a big ol' dump on his chest.

I could see Crazy Diamond and Barry Dillon forming some grammatical version of an Access of Evil.

 

[Andy Capp]

Guys, I think I have to report this thread to the mods and/or police, since Crazy Diamond just murdered JVS and took a big ol' dump on his chest.

I won't lie, that was a fun specimen to spot in the wild.

Just don't take from this that I sought cravenly for a singular opportunity to burn @Jack V Savage. It may be said there are a fair few opportunities if I were in need of such specious fulfillment.