2020 Recap and Analytics

[Sadistics]

@Sadistics instead of shutting it down altogether, create a way for people to pay monthly to gain access to your picks

50 people paying $25/mo = 15k passive yearly income

It's never been my intention to tout, and I wouldn't consider it for amounts like that. I had two offers this year I couldn't refuse but wouldn't want to add too many more. Respect for line preservation is very important to me.

Sadistics... what a legend.
Big up you for making a real go at this, and succeeding incredibly.
I for one check your bets exclusively, don’t tail them - but hope any picks I make are also picked by you!
I’ll be gutted your picks aren’t up, but understand it 100%. I’m sure you’ll be even more profitable than last.
Can I ask you, before you make a big bet- what is your final thought process(if you have one)?
Are there any specific factors your consider more than others, such as style differential/odds quality/consistency. Obviously these factors all come in to play, but there must be a combination before you make a final decision on a bet?
Thanks for the content over the past few years, it’s been good watching you win as a lurker!

After doing all your research you want to quantify your edge to determine staking. Say you cap someone as a 70% fav (-233), and the line implies 60% (-150), that's worthy of a significant bet. If I'm struggling with sizing I'll plug it into Kelly with a .1 multiplier to get a guideline. (https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-calculators/kelly-calculator/).

I appreciate all the kind words but I want to see what you guys came away with this year! There's only been a few actual reviews shared

 

[BigSteve]

2019 : + 1,664
2020: + 29,958

( disclaimer about my English and long text )

What a year. So many learning curves throughout. Considering my target in 2020 was around 10k, I ended up being a completely different gambler by Dec.

January was a continuation of the last 2 months of 2019, dug my self out of a 2,500 hole ( $100 units ) by profiting 6 events in a row and finally deciding to stop making the same mistakes over and over. January was the same with 2 profitable events. Feb I lost big, -670 by chasing Reyes dec ( still salty ), but had a profitable month regardless. Would end up profiting every single month till the end of the year. At this point I am still playing multis, sometimes across multiple events, laying the juice on favourites, no hedges and playing round props and overs when I cant decide who should win, but it is working for me. When I am down I chase hard to escape in the plus. I have a little goal of hitting 1,000 in one event but keep falling short. Jan/Anderson, I went from over 1,000 if Anderson won down to 200 profit. First valuable lesson when it comes to hedging. I end up having a massive month in March making over 1,700, ending with +575 on the Cage Warriors card right before Covid hit.

April was rough, felt like I was making bank, and now I couldn't continue and also couldn't watch my favourite sport every week. I picked up trading stocks, read a few books and invested. Started to see lots of correlation between the 2, but realised the learning curve would be just as long, so I withdrew my winnings and went back to betting in May.

Ferguson V Geathje was great, but next 2 cards in 3 days were much less profitable due to less tape. I am still trying to hit 1k in a day, I get painfully close on the last card of the month and miss out and drop down to +300 profit due to Woodley losing over Burns. Still a great month, I am feeling confident in my process and now I am hedging like a mad man lol. Unit size up to 200.

June I have a process where I play almost every fight, I am hedging shit, props etc. I have great results +900, +903, +1,400 Blaydes/ Vokov ( Yeesss ) and - 300 on Proier/Hooker. In July Usman/Masvidal I crack the 2k mark and Kattar/Ige +1,590. I have a healthy bank roll and I up the unit size to 400. Finish the month +190 (chased with Fig over Benevidez ) and +690 on Till/Whittaker.

Shabazian/ Brunson I lose 1,942. My biggest loss to date and this one is eating away at me. Usually loses have no effect on me. I was up 1k, but lost it all when Maia armbared JoJo. I was greedy, and I lost money on the over prop, JoJo ML and my Maia DEC hedge. Its not the first time this happened but it was the turning point. WMMA, props and hedges are all on my shit list.

This month is when my country went into stage 4 lockdown and I was forced to stay home from work. Other sports came back for the first time and I started making bank on soccer, Bellator and Contender. Made 1,200 on those 3 by applying same principles I learned from MMA, followed by +2,253 on Lewis/ Olynek card, my biggest win so far. Ol mate @Sadistics calls me out on my hedging and he is right, I am hedging everything now, even though I was super against it when I started, because I am scared to lose all my winnings. I do start getting a bit worn out by hedging every situation and having most my bankroll involved in each card, so I decide to simplify things a lot.

September ends up being my best month every, +6,700, with some winnings coming from soccer and Woodley/Colby being my best ever card + 4,461. Legit got every play right that day, minus one leg of a long shot multi. October ends up being the worst. I end up 5k up after Aldana/Holm and Moraes/Sanhagen but then lose over 2k on Zombie/Ortega and Kabib/Geahtje ( first time in the year I lost 2 events in a row ), -340 on Bellator and KSW and - 1,641 on soccer. Never played soccer again. I am lucky to get out with 700 profit for the month.

November and December are the best versions of me. I am super disciplined, I force no plays, I make a solid 2,3,4 units every event and it feels like its enough. Cards either feel harder, or I am now more picky with what I play. I am ok with passing most the card. I fall in love with round and method props ( Muderji RD 1 KO 5.00, Smolka KO 6.00 etc, Fig SUB 4.00 ). Really want to explore them more in 2021. I lose a bit on Moreno v Fig but I am ok with it and finish Dec with a profit.

Excited to go into this year with a new view on betting. Without a doubt I owe everything to this forum. I get something from everyone on here and lately people have been DM'ing me for bets which is a massive humbling experience. Never expected to be in that position as I was a white belt noob only a year ago my self. Special thanks to @Sadistics @PolarBearPaulVarelans @StayHumbl3 @Ryan Kelly who are always happy to throw opinions around. I always welcome anyone wants to reach out and discuss.

The goal this year is 50k and to quit the full time job. Good luck everyone.

 

[burge13]

Being based in Australia Steve, how are you going to combat limits/bans from our bookies?

I'm banned from Pointsbet, Neds, Ladbrokes, Luxbet and I haven't profited anything like what you have there. I still have Sportsbet, 365, and Unibet but the latter will go soon no doubt. Betfair liquidity is really low until fight day and by then you don't get optimum lines.

Quitting the day job will be a real challenge given these hurdles. We all want to quit the full-time job but if you're making this kind of money on the side I'd recommend going part-time at worst. You'll also have issues with getting mortgages/loans etc. Hope you're bloody successful if you take the plunge, just curious how you'd go about it? (coming from someone who does not have the balls to have my mortgage payment sitting in the hands of Adelaide Byrd LOL).

 

[BigSteve]

Being based in Australia Steve, how are you going to combat limits/bans from our bookies?

I'm banned from Pointsbet, Neds, Ladbrokes, Luxbet and I haven't profited anything like what you have there. I still have Sportsbet, 365, and Unibet but the latter will go soon no doubt. Betfair liquidity is really low until fight day and by then you don't get optimum lines.

Quitting the day job will be a real challenge given these hurdles. We all want to quit the full-time job but if you're making this kind of money on the side I'd recommend going part-time at worst. You'll also have issues with getting mortgages/loans etc. Hope you're bloody successful if you take the plunge, just curious how you'd go about it? (coming from someone who does not have the balls to have my mortgage payment sitting in the hands of Adelaide Byrd LOL).

Thats one thing I forgot to mention, hard to get everything from the year in one wall of text. I was using SportsBet and nothing else for years, then Bet365 which limited me after about 2 months. I have been reading some articles by ex bookies in Australia. I think its more about the method you use, rather than how much you win. If they can catch on that you have a method that constantly wins, they will limit you quick fast. My Bet365 ban came after my worst month in October. Lost thousands on MMA and soccer, won 120 on contender series and then got the message about my account. Using Neds and Bet365 under an alias, as well as PointsBET.

I already have a mortgage, been making payments no problem for more than a year. Have a decent amount of savings as well. But I wont be quitting to live off SportsBetting, I have a business on the side as well. During stage 4 when we were locked down I focused on the business a lot, and I realised I can work for my self and gamble and make a healthy income. Probably the biggest positive out of Covid for me personally. I also didn't have the balls to quit until that opened my eyes. My biggest returns were when I wasen't working and I spent more time taping, so it goes hand in hand. Without a doubt limiting is the biggest hurdle, but everyone comes across that problem, you just work around it. I still have a couple of months of solid income to bank before quitting. Bit more saving, and the business being more on its feet as well hopefully

 

[burge13]

Thats one thing I forgot to mention, hard to get everything from the year in one wall of text. I was using SportsBet and nothing else for years, then Bet365 which limited me after about 2 months. I have been reading some articles by ex bookies in Australia. I think its more about the method you use, rather than how much you win. If they can catch on that you have a method that constantly wins, they will limit you quick fast. My Bet365 ban came after my worst month in October. Lost thousands on MMA and soccer, won 120 on contender series and then got the message about my account. Using Neds and Bet365 under an alias, as well as PointsBET.

I already have a mortgage, been making payments no problem for more than a year. Have a decent amount of savings as well. But I wont be quitting to live off SportsBetting, I have a business on the side as well. During stage 4 when we were locked down I focused on the business a lot, and I realised I can work for my self and gamble and make a healthy income. Probably the biggest positive out of Covid for me personally. I also didn't have the balls to quit until that opened my eyes. My biggest returns were when I wasen't working and I spent more time taping, so it goes hand in hand. Without a doubt limiting is the biggest hurdle, but everyone comes across that problem, you just work around it. I still have a couple of months of solid income to bank before quitting. Bit more saving, and the business being more on its feet as well hopefully

At least you have something to rely on other than gambling then, need to ride out the down months somehow. Hope it goes well, far too big a risk for me but like hearing stories of those who take big risks and it pays off! Good luck

 

[Shotcy]

Going serious this year. Started last year with $50, highest point was $545, currently at $460.

I seem to be good at betting on dogs, getting a lot more right then wrong. Despite that I feel like its a trap and I have to slow down in that regard. I need to play less parlays and remember, bankroll! A few times when I hit big ill end up making my next few bets way bigger then they should because I feel all invincible. Opposite of tilit?

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Made a lot of dumb mistakes in the early part of this year(where does Kevin Lee fit into all this? Hint, he majorly fucked up my bankroll for a while).

Not sure if you guys remember, but when the UFC started back in the midst of the pandemic, I went BIG on Kevin Lee vs Oliveira. I said if I lost the bet, I'd never post on here again. And I did indeed stop posting for like 7 months or so.

I was in a funk from diminished hours at work, a benzodiazepine prescription that made me make some incredibly dumb decisions, and Kevin Lee was my final hope.

Watching him land a solid combo on Oliveira in the third, and precede to shoot for one of the sloppiest takedowns I've ever seen was a low point in my life(he was gassed, and couldn't do anything with the TD's he was getting, so I knew I was kind of fucked).

Since then, the only bad event I had was UFC 256, which I said going into it, "I'm so much more confident in next week's picks". And of course that held true -- I went 0/6 on UFC 256, and then hit every bet the next week.

Ended 2020 up a decent amount, because a few weeks before Glover fought, who I had a strong lean on, I started throwing unit sizes out the window.

In hindsight, I definitely need to go even bigger on leans. Sometimes, even on strong leans though(ie Tybura/Hardy, Glover/Santos, Pereira/Williams, Chook/Calvillo, etc) I don't bet enough.

For instance, after rd1 of Hardy/Tybura, the live line on Tybura was like +350 to +400 depending on the bookie. But I had bet so much pre fight, had him in so many parlays, that I decided not to stab that line, despite knowing Hardy was going to gas for sure.

So even on events that I won pretty big this year, I'd end up kicking myself for one thing or another.

I'm going to start taping the 3 upcoming events this week, because betting on the rigged theatrics that is the NFL playoffs is probably going to make me lose a good bit of money.

 

[StayHumbl3]

2019 : + 1,664
2020: + 29,958

( disclaimer about my English and long text )

What a year. So many learning curves throughout. Considering my target in 2020 was around 10k, I ended up being a completely different gambler by Dec.

January was a continuation of the last 2 months of 2019, dug my self out of a 2,500 hole ( $100 units ) by profiting 6 events in a row and finally deciding to stop making the same mistakes over and over. January was the same with 2 profitable events. Feb I lost big, -670 by chasing Reyes dec ( still salty ), but had a profitable month regardless. Would end up profiting every single month till the end of the year. At this point I am still playing multis, sometimes across multiple events, laying the juice on favourites, no hedges and playing round props and overs when I cant decide who should win, but it is working for me. When I am down I chase hard to escape in the plus. I have a little goal of hitting 1,000 in one event but keep falling short. Jan/Anderson, I went from over 1,000 if Anderson won down to 200 profit. First valuable lesson when it comes to hedging. I end up having a massive month in March making over 1,700, ending with +575 on the Cage Warriors card right before Covid hit.

April was rough, felt like I was making bank, and now I couldn't continue and also couldn't watch my favourite sport every week. I picked up trading stocks, read a few books and invested. Started to see lots of correlation between the 2, but realised the learning curve would be just as long, so I withdrew my winnings and went back to betting in May.

Ferguson V Geathje was great, but next 2 cards in 3 days were much less profitable due to less tape. I am still trying to hit 1k in a day, I get painfully close on the last card of the month and miss out and drop down to +300 profit due to Woodley losing over Burns. Still a great month, I am feeling confident in my process and now I am hedging like a mad man lol. Unit size up to 200.

June I have a process where I play almost every fight, I am hedging shit, props etc. I have great results +900, +903, +1,400 Blaydes/ Vokov ( Yeesss ) and - 300 on Proier/Hooker. In July Usman/Masvidal I crack the 2k mark and Kattar/Ige +1,590. I have a healthy bank roll and I up the unit size to 400. Finish the month +190 (chased with Fig over Benevidez ) and +690 on Till/Whittaker.

Shabazian/ Brunson I lose 1,942. My biggest loss to date and this one is eating away at me. Usually loses have no effect on me. I was up 1k, but lost it all when Maia armbared JoJo. I was greedy, and I lost money on the over prop, JoJo ML and my Maia DEC hedge. Its not the first time this happened but it was the turning point. WMMA, props and hedges are all on my shit list.

This month is when my country went into stage 4 lockdown and I was forced to stay home from work. Other sports came back for the first time and I started making bank on soccer, Bellator and Contender. Made 1,200 on those 3 by applying same principles I learned from MMA, followed by +2,253 on Lewis/ Olynek card, my biggest win so far. Ol mate @Sadistics calls me out on my hedging and he is right, I am hedging everything now, even though I was super against it when I started, because I am scared to lose all my winnings. I do start getting a bit worn out by hedging every situation and having most my bankroll involved in each card, so I decide to simplify things a lot.

September ends up being my best month every, +6,700, with some winnings coming from soccer and Woodley/Colby being my best ever card + 4,461. Legit got every play right that day, minus one leg of a long shot multi. October ends up being the worst. I end up 5k up after Aldana/Holm and Moraes/Sanhagen but then lose over 2k on Zombie/Ortega and Kabib/Geahtje ( first time in the year I lost 2 events in a row ), -340 on Bellator and KSW and - 1,641 on soccer. Never played soccer again. I am lucky to get out with 700 profit for the month.

November and December are the best versions of me. I am super disciplined, I force no plays, I make a solid 2,3,4 units every event and it feels like its enough. Cards either feel harder, or I am now more picky with what I play. I am ok with passing most the card. I fall in love with round and method props ( Muderji RD 1 KO 5.00, Smolka KO 6.00 etc, Fig SUB 4.00 ). Really want to explore them more in 2021. I lose a bit on Moreno v Fig but I am ok with it and finish Dec with a profit.

Excited to go into this year with a new view on betting. Without a doubt I owe everything to this forum. I get something from everyone on here and lately people have been DM'ing me for bets which is a massive humbling experience. Never expected to be in that position as I was a white belt noob only a year ago my self. Special thanks to @Sadistics @PolarBearPaulVarelans @StayHumbl3 @Ryan Kelly who are always happy to throw opinions around. I always welcome anyone wants to reach out and discuss.

The goal this year is 50k and to quit the full time job. Good luck everyone.

I wish you all the best Steve, Cov*d f***ed a lot of us in different ways. I like how you turned negative to positive, you got a winner mindset. Anything you need let me know as long as I can help I will.

 

[SolarSeiko]

we could

2019 : + 1,664
2020: + 29,958

( disclaimer about my English and long text )

What a year. So many learning curves throughout. Considering my target in 2020 was around 10k, I ended up being a completely different gambler by Dec.

January was a continuation of the last 2 months of 2019, dug my self out of a 2,500 hole ( $100 units ) by profiting 6 events in a row and finally deciding to stop making the same mistakes over and over. January was the same with 2 profitable events. Feb I lost big, -670 by chasing Reyes dec ( still salty ), but had a profitable month regardless. Would end up profiting every single month till the end of the year. At this point I am still playing multis, sometimes across multiple events, laying the juice on favourites, no hedges and playing round props and overs when I cant decide who should win, but it is working for me. When I am down I chase hard to escape in the plus. I have a little goal of hitting 1,000 in one event but keep falling short. Jan/Anderson, I went from over 1,000 if Anderson won down to 200 profit. First valuable lesson when it comes to hedging. I end up having a massive month in March making over 1,700, ending with +575 on the Cage Warriors card right before Covid hit.

April was rough, felt like I was making bank, and now I couldn't continue and also couldn't watch my favourite sport every week. I picked up trading stocks, read a few books and invested. Started to see lots of correlation between the 2, but realised the learning curve would be just as long, so I withdrew my winnings and went back to betting in May.

Ferguson V Geathje was great, but next 2 cards in 3 days were much less profitable due to less tape. I am still trying to hit 1k in a day, I get painfully close on the last card of the month and miss out and drop down to +300 profit due to Woodley losing over Burns. Still a great month, I am feeling confident in my process and now I am hedging like a mad man lol. Unit size up to 200.

June I have a process where I play almost every fight, I am hedging shit, props etc. I have great results +900, +903, +1,400 Blaydes/ Vokov ( Yeesss ) and - 300 on Proier/Hooker. In July Usman/Masvidal I crack the 2k mark and Kattar/Ige +1,590. I have a healthy bank roll and I up the unit size to 400. Finish the month +190 (chased with Fig over Benevidez ) and +690 on Till/Whittaker.

Shabazian/ Brunson I lose 1,942. My biggest loss to date and this one is eating away at me. Usually loses have no effect on me. I was up 1k, but lost it all when Maia armbared JoJo. I was greedy, and I lost money on the over prop, JoJo ML and my Maia DEC hedge. Its not the first time this happened but it was the turning point. WMMA, props and hedges are all on my shit list.

This month is when my country went into stage 4 lockdown and I was forced to stay home from work. Other sports came back for the first time and I started making bank on soccer, Bellator and Contender. Made 1,200 on those 3 by applying same principles I learned from MMA, followed by +2,253 on Lewis/ Olynek card, my biggest win so far. Ol mate @Sadistics calls me out on my hedging and he is right, I am hedging everything now, even though I was super against it when I started, because I am scared to lose all my winnings. I do start getting a bit worn out by hedging every situation and having most my bankroll involved in each card, so I decide to simplify things a lot.

September ends up being my best month every, +6,700, with some winnings coming from soccer and Woodley/Colby being my best ever card + 4,461. Legit got every play right that day, minus one leg of a long shot multi. October ends up being the worst. I end up 5k up after Aldana/Holm and Moraes/Sanhagen but then lose over 2k on Zombie/Ortega and Kabib/Geahtje ( first time in the year I lost 2 events in a row ), -340 on Bellator and KSW and - 1,641 on soccer. Never played soccer again. I am lucky to get out with 700 profit for the month.

November and December are the best versions of me. I am super disciplined, I force no plays, I make a solid 2,3,4 units every event and it feels like its enough. Cards either feel harder, or I am now more picky with what I play. I am ok with passing most the card. I fall in love with round and method props ( Muderji RD 1 KO 5.00, Smolka KO 6.00 etc, Fig SUB 4.00 ). Really want to explore them more in 2021. I lose a bit on Moreno v Fig but I am ok with it and finish Dec with a profit.

Excited to go into this year with a new view on betting. Without a doubt I owe everything to this forum. I get something from everyone on here and lately people have been DM'ing me for bets which is a massive humbling experience. Never expected to be in that position as I was a white belt noob only a year ago my self. Special thanks to @Sadistics @PolarBearPaulVarelans @StayHumbl3 @Ryan Kelly who are always happy to throw opinions around. I always welcome anyone wants to reach out and discuss.

The goal this year is 50k and to quit the full time job. Good luck everyone.

I've always liked your picks.

 

[pyromania]

It's never been my intention to tout, and I wouldn't consider it for amounts like that. I had two offers this year I couldn't refuse but wouldn't want to add too many more. Respect for line preservation is very important to me.

I appreciate all the kind words but I want to see what you guys came away with this year! There's only been a few actual reviews shared

Majorly bummed. Lost a bunch of money in 2019 down to a meagre $80 in my 5Dimes account, then tailing mostly you, built it up to around $700 before 5dimes cashed me out...then Bitcoin tripled so $$$.