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2021 Recap and Analytics
- Thread starter BigSteve
- Start date
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- Sep 9, 2020
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I am from california but english is not my first languange. Its Farsi. and I do have ADD. And bright ehh.... I do have a bachelors degree from UC berkeley
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this explains so much
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Dam the aussie talking shit lol I should be ashamed
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ANY way lets stop the trash talk some people might get offended congrats on the people who profited this yr. And if you didnt better luck this yr. lets all beat the bookies!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Nice read guys, thanks for the insights. MMA wise my betting year was quite average and I think it largely had to do with props and staking structure. In 2022 I'm aiming to go for bets that cover a lot of outcomes and not get too specific.
Also, I'd like to do more livebetting, because I've noticed there's a lot of great opportunities to be had and it gives you the most accurate read of the fight's dynamic.
Finally, I'd like to keep track of my results in a much more structured way.
Anyway, have a nice NYE and be careful with the fireworks because you can't smash those livelines with your big toe.
Also, I'd like to do more livebetting, because I've noticed there's a lot of great opportunities to be had and it gives you the most accurate read of the fight's dynamic.
Finally, I'd like to keep track of my results in a much more structured way.
Anyway, have a nice NYE and be careful with the fireworks because you can't smash those livelines with your big toe.
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Made $23.84. Probably gonna buy a pizza.
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I started relatively late/recently.
I only started keeping proper records since Giga vs Barbosa (late August). I made some big gains for a while at that point on.
Giga vs Barbosa, Brunson vs Till, and Volk vs Ortega were all very good to me.
Then Santos vs Walker absolutely smashed my winnings. I didn't do great on the card and figured I could make it all back up by going heavy on what I thought was a "sure thing" in Walker and Santos not going the distance.
After that I had a spot of bad luck and I think I became a lot more gunshy. Stuff like Jan losing to Glover, and Nunes losing to Pena really screwed me out of potential big parlays/catching up.
I've been slowly inching my way back up (and still up from where I started), but I'm still nowhere close to where I was at the end of Sept.
So the lessons I've learned so far...
-Don't "chase the win". Follow your rules/limits for the night. A one night loss is really no biggie, but dumping even more money into a fight merely in the hopes of making the night a win can often result in a painful loss that takes more than a couple of cards to undo.
-Avoid betting on anything worse than -300. Maybe put them in a parlay, but only if I know the fighters very well and I genuinely think they are capable of it. 100% avoid anything that gets near the Nunes vs Pena -1000 type odds. At that point either play the underdog or just watch and learn for next time. The risk has to be worth the reward at the end of the day.
-Keep Parlays relatively small/sensible. Nothing is more frustrating than watching an entire parlay fall apart because you've missed the last part of a 4 or 5 parlay. Instead, better to make smaller individual parlays. (2-3 is more than enough to get you some decent returns)
-Keep my eyes open for fights that seem like Vegas got wrong. For me Giga vs Barbosa and Brunson vs Till were both fights where I expected to the underdogs to be the favorites and was scratching my head when they weren't. (Rose vs Weili 2 as well). If I feel that way then there is a good chance that there is some good money to be made from it. Charles over Poirier, and Jose over Font are another 2 recent examples. I think Gane and Ngannou is another that's coming up. I don't think those odds should be anywhere close to even, and I'm hoping things pay off for me as well on that one.
Oh and finally after reviewing my records I must say that Boxing has been far better to me than MMA has. Maybe it's because I don't really follow boxing and only show up for silly shit like Vitor vs Hollyfield, but I've only ever come out ahead with boxing cards so far this year. I'll try and do that more in 2022.
I only started keeping proper records since Giga vs Barbosa (late August). I made some big gains for a while at that point on.
Giga vs Barbosa, Brunson vs Till, and Volk vs Ortega were all very good to me.
Then Santos vs Walker absolutely smashed my winnings. I didn't do great on the card and figured I could make it all back up by going heavy on what I thought was a "sure thing" in Walker and Santos not going the distance.
After that I had a spot of bad luck and I think I became a lot more gunshy. Stuff like Jan losing to Glover, and Nunes losing to Pena really screwed me out of potential big parlays/catching up.
I've been slowly inching my way back up (and still up from where I started), but I'm still nowhere close to where I was at the end of Sept.
So the lessons I've learned so far...
-Don't "chase the win". Follow your rules/limits for the night. A one night loss is really no biggie, but dumping even more money into a fight merely in the hopes of making the night a win can often result in a painful loss that takes more than a couple of cards to undo.
-Avoid betting on anything worse than -300. Maybe put them in a parlay, but only if I know the fighters very well and I genuinely think they are capable of it. 100% avoid anything that gets near the Nunes vs Pena -1000 type odds. At that point either play the underdog or just watch and learn for next time. The risk has to be worth the reward at the end of the day.
-Keep Parlays relatively small/sensible. Nothing is more frustrating than watching an entire parlay fall apart because you've missed the last part of a 4 or 5 parlay. Instead, better to make smaller individual parlays. (2-3 is more than enough to get you some decent returns)
-Keep my eyes open for fights that seem like Vegas got wrong. For me Giga vs Barbosa and Brunson vs Till were both fights where I expected to the underdogs to be the favorites and was scratching my head when they weren't. (Rose vs Weili 2 as well). If I feel that way then there is a good chance that there is some good money to be made from it. Charles over Poirier, and Jose over Font are another 2 recent examples. I think Gane and Ngannou is another that's coming up. I don't think those odds should be anywhere close to even, and I'm hoping things pay off for me as well on that one.
Oh and finally after reviewing my records I must say that Boxing has been far better to me than MMA has. Maybe it's because I don't really follow boxing and only show up for silly shit like Vitor vs Hollyfield, but I've only ever come out ahead with boxing cards so far this year. I'll try and do that more in 2022.
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I been gambling for 2 decade, I no longer have yearly goal, no more unit size, no more tracking on win and lost. I treat each ufc card individual entity and each fight separately. Even with that mindset being stoic and not chase, it hard not to chase within a ufc card since you have no time to cool down. So the only improvement I can make on a unbreakable bad habit is chase the underdog or no chase.
So I don't known how much I win, I only recall the 2 bet I have most fun. 1 bet I casually put $100 on Pena for fun. I also bet $40 on Melissa Catto in rd 3 for giggle. I could not believe $40 yield $720. As you get older and older, not much thing is fun anymore. Mma betting is fun if it doesn't destroy you first.
So I don't known how much I win, I only recall the 2 bet I have most fun. 1 bet I casually put $100 on Pena for fun. I also bet $40 on Melissa Catto in rd 3 for giggle. I could not believe $40 yield $720. As you get older and older, not much thing is fun anymore. Mma betting is fun if it doesn't destroy you first.
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- Oct 15, 2011
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- 164
Shit! did I kill the thread?
Sadistic is a legend but I still don't known what he do is even possible. He able to make big bet on open line, early line without destroying the line. It is like he can go swimming and not get wet.
If anyone pay attention Sadistic big bet on open line, he predict line movement with 99.9% accuracy and able hedge down to get ridiculous odd, I only recall he miss read line movement 1 time. It is like the moon landing where the nasa engineer said success rate is likely in the 2.1% tile to land on the moon but they did it 7 out of 7 time without major hitch. I think it is easier to pick a random number on a roulette and hit it 9 out of 9 time.
One way for me to make extra mma money is also make big bet, maximum bet base on my read on the line movement. I can tell you I am not getting 99% accurate, maybe in the 60% ish success rate.
Only way to come to sense of all this is... Sadistic is 'gifted' in the mma betting arena. Like a child able to play the same level as professional musician at age of 7. Am I jealous? hell yeah. I put so much effort into it and can not consistent making 4-5g a event. In fact I think I am below 50% success rate if I try to win big.
Also why aren't you ban from the the site? I don't win that much and I am ban at most site. I think I have like 6 bet365 account and stop making it because it get instant ban. Only site have not ban me is Pinnacle and bookMaker, but they don't have the best odd. Betonline, 5dimes, Sports Interaction have limit me to 10% ish of a regular bet. How does Sadistic do it?
If Sadistic is for real ...he is not the top 5%, he is the champ.
Sadistic is a legend but I still don't known what he do is even possible. He able to make big bet on open line, early line without destroying the line. It is like he can go swimming and not get wet.
If anyone pay attention Sadistic big bet on open line, he predict line movement with 99.9% accuracy and able hedge down to get ridiculous odd, I only recall he miss read line movement 1 time. It is like the moon landing where the nasa engineer said success rate is likely in the 2.1% tile to land on the moon but they did it 7 out of 7 time without major hitch. I think it is easier to pick a random number on a roulette and hit it 9 out of 9 time.
One way for me to make extra mma money is also make big bet, maximum bet base on my read on the line movement. I can tell you I am not getting 99% accurate, maybe in the 60% ish success rate.
Only way to come to sense of all this is... Sadistic is 'gifted' in the mma betting arena. Like a child able to play the same level as professional musician at age of 7. Am I jealous? hell yeah. I put so much effort into it and can not consistent making 4-5g a event. In fact I think I am below 50% success rate if I try to win big.
Also why aren't you ban from the the site? I don't win that much and I am ban at most site. I think I have like 6 bet365 account and stop making it because it get instant ban. Only site have not ban me is Pinnacle and bookMaker, but they don't have the best odd. Betonline, 5dimes, Sports Interaction have limit me to 10% ish of a regular bet. How does Sadistic do it?
If Sadistic is for real ...he is not the top 5%, he is the champ.
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- Nov 14, 2020
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A bit late to the party,but I took a month off from posting and betting due to a bit of a burnout.
2021 around 800$ plus.Had a great first half of the year,was more than 7000$ up in August,then started losing a bit with the last three cards of the year being -4800$.I lost 3500$ betting Font,Crute and Santos on that card and then I could off rebounded the next card but putting Nunes in parlays cost me 2000$.
Learned something last year and ready to make more profit in 2022.
2021 around 800$ plus.Had a great first half of the year,was more than 7000$ up in August,then started losing a bit with the last three cards of the year being -4800$.I lost 3500$ betting Font,Crute and Santos on that card and then I could off rebounded the next card but putting Nunes in parlays cost me 2000$.
Learned something last year and ready to make more profit in 2022.
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2011
- Messages
- 422
- Reaction score
- 164
Line movement f*ck up, it is not easy to predict line movement.
I have $3000 + $400 on Michael Morales at -124, for sure the public will bet the young buck 12-0 Morales. I will hedge Trevin Giles on closing odd for healthy free roll profit like a 'pro!'
Instead the public hammer on Trevin Giles from +150 to -115 .... fml, not going to forfeit $40 per $100 unit. Let it ride!!!
So when someone claim they can predict line movement with 99% accuracy, I have to question the legitimacy of that claim.
I have $3000 + $400 on Michael Morales at -124, for sure the public will bet the young buck 12-0 Morales. I will hedge Trevin Giles on closing odd for healthy free roll profit like a 'pro!'
Instead the public hammer on Trevin Giles from +150 to -115 .... fml, not going to forfeit $40 per $100 unit. Let it ride!!!
So when someone claim they can predict line movement with 99% accuracy, I have to question the legitimacy of that claim.
