Bellator 212

Mir 11 pounds lighter than he was against Fedor, and Ayala as fat and out-of-shape as ever. A good sign.
 
Weigh-in notables: Derek Campos looking ripped but surprisingly shorter and smaller than Sam Sicilia despite dropping down to featherweight. Frank Mir looking very good. Alejandra Lara looking sexy.
 
Freerolled Mir-Ayala... fuck it.

Ayala: 1u to win 1.12u
Mir: 1u to win 1.11u

Red panty night (?)
 
27284.jpg

Please tell me Ayala has his thumb up inside that right fist. And my goodness look at that stance.

I'm 2u on Mir and might go deeper.
 
Vir_Ars said:
You put 2u to win 1.11 or 1.12??? You still lossing anyway...
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Need to work on your math my friend. He wins either .12u or .11u no matter what happens.

Except! What happens in a double KO? Honest? Anyone encounter that before?
 
In my book Mir is underdog 2.05 and ayala 1.75, only if Mir win he will get 0.05 back and if ayala win he will lose some money, so, too much trouble for nothing.
 
Vir_Ars said:
In my book Mir is underdog 2.05 and ayala 1.75, only if Mir win he will get 0.05 back and if ayala win he will lose some money, so, too much trouble for nothing.
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He will get 1u returned and he profits either .12u or .11u no matter what happens. Now, back to my double KO question...
 
i hit ayala at + money but let's be real, i might as well be betting on felony fights here.
 
Ayala has been weirdly and massively overrated by the public in his last two fights, also against heavyweight senior citizens.

Against 41 year-old Roy Nelson, he opened at +250 and ended at a respectable +140.

Against nearly 43 year-old Kongo, he opened at +255 (and Kongo was -365) only to end at just +135.

Mir definitely has much better stand-up and reactions than that version of Nelson, but with worse wrestling and a worse chin.

I've resisted the urge to sink another unit or two into Mir though, since there is a decent chance Ayala lands one of his wild, sloppy strikes and it's enough to knock out Mir.
 
Also watched some tape on Daniel Crawford since +850 sounds mighty tempting and while AJ McKee is a very good fighter, him being that heavily favored sounds off.

Eh, going to pass.
 
Soccer Steve said:
He will get 1u returned and he profits either .12u or .11u no matter what happens. Now, back to my double KO question...
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Pretty sure it would be called a No Contest and the bet would be void.

Precedent: Rob Emerson vs Gray Maynard back in 2007


And BTW.. I still think Ayala wins.. but it feels good to freeroll
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Just watched that fight. Lara actually looked much worse against Lena in victory than she did against MacFarlane in defeat. (And she absolutely lost the 1st round against Lena, too) She improved markedly against MacFarlane, despite losing.

I've also seen Velasquez now. Lara beat Lena by taking her down repeatedly from a clinch. That worked fine against Lena, whose takedown defense is among the worst I have ever seen in modern MMA, and who has virtually zero ground skills. (Lara was a BJJ blue belt making frequent white belt mistakes and dominated her)

Not going to work against Velasquez, who was on the national Brazilian judo team, huge and strong at 125, trains with the Nogueiras, and has solid ground skills from what I've seen.

Very happy to let the juice settle and people continue betting on Lara, though.
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I just watched tape for these two and agree with you 100%.

Lara might be the worst fighter to ever fight for a major title in MMA. Her overall game prior to Bellator is laughable. Literally will make you laugh at how bad and sloppy she is. And, besides Mazo who is decent (but still Mazo's first pro fight) Lara has been fighting the worst bums in the Colombian circuit. Lara has definitely improved but her game is to throw a lazy kick out there, get punched in the face, and then dive into a bodylock looking for a takedown. Against a terrible Lena Ovychnnikova this actually worked since Lena had some horrible counterwrestling and clinch game. Despite 'training with the Ukraine wreslting team,' Lena decided that the best defense for a bodylock was to attempt multiple sloppy head and arm throws. This ended up leading to Lena giving up her back in the 2nd and 3rd round (where she gassed and gifted her neck to Lara). Not one attempt to get an underhook and shrug off Lara despite having an obvious striking advantage.

Juliana Velasquez is undefeated and it hasn't been a cakewalk fighting 0-0 and 0-1 Colombian fighters. Velasquez has fought solid Brazilian circuit girls like Duarte and Talita Bernardo. Her fight style seems tailor made to counter anything that Lara tries to do to her. She seems to be immensely powerful and strong, and would probably shrug off any of those lazy bodylock TD attempts on physicality alone. Unfortunately for Lara, Velasquez is also a judo black belt and would have both a large power and technique advantage in the clinch.

Velasquez has also shown an ability to avoid chained TD attempts from hapless leg grabber Na Liang, which probably won't matter because Lara doesn't shoot at the legs anyway. But in case she did, we know it ain't leading anywhere. Finally Velasquez's patient counterpunching style is the opposite of Ovchynnikova who fell into a body lock with every punch she threw. Lara will be forced to throw some striking at distance and likely eat a few hard right hands from Velasquez, who has legitimate one-punch KO power at 125. Watching Lara eat so many clean shots on the feet, and seeing Velasquez drop Elaine Alburqueque like a bag of hammers with one punch (available on Youtube) makes me think that there's a very good chance Velasquez KO's Lara. I can also see a TKO where Lara fails multiple TD attempts, ends up in a bad position and eats a ton of elbows or hammerfists.

Honestly I don't see how Lara wins this except for some odd mistake by Velasquez in transition which leads to an armbar. But, as mentioned earlier, her judo background probably gives her a significant advantage in these transitions.
 
Oblivian said:
I pulled the trigger on Mir. I've actually done well betting for/against Mir, but this is a tough one. Honestly, I think he just needs to resist a firefight, tie up, and look for a trip takedown/throw. I do not view Ayala as a big threat of a KO late, so wearing him down by trying to grapple or actually snagging a sub would be great.
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Mir at + odds here has some value. He should be in the -140-150 range imo.
 
turbozed said:
I just watched tape for these two and agree with you 100%.

Lara might be the worst fighter to ever fight for a major title in MMA. Her overall game prior to Bellator is laughable. Literally will make you laugh at how bad and sloppy she is. And, besides Mazo who is decent (but still Mazo's first pro fight) Lara has been fighting the worst bums in the Colombian circuit. Lara has definitely improved but her game is to throw a lazy kick out there, get punched in the face, and then dive into a bodylock looking for a takedown. Against a terrible Lena Ovychnnikova this actually worked since Lena had some horrible counterwrestling and clinch game. Despite 'training with the Ukraine wreslting team,' Lena decided that the best defense for a bodylock was to attempt multiple sloppy head and arm throws. This ended up leading to Lena giving up her back in the 2nd and 3rd round (where she gassed and gifted her neck to Lara). Not one attempt to get an underhook and shrug off Lara despite having an obvious striking advantage.

Juliana Velasquez is undefeated and it hasn't been a cakewalk fighting 0-0 and 0-1 Colombian fighters. Velasquez has fought solid Brazilian circuit girls like Duarte and Talita Bernardo. Her fight style seems tailor made to counter anything that Lara tries to do to her. She seems to be immensely powerful and strong, and would probably shrug off any of those lazy bodylock TD attempts on physicality alone. Unfortunately for Lara, Velasquez is also a judo black belt and would have both a large power and technique advantage in the clinch.

Velasquez has also shown an ability to avoid chained TD attempts from hapless leg grabber Na Liang, which probably won't matter because Lara doesn't shoot at the legs anyway. But in case she did, we know it ain't leading anywhere. Finally Velasquez's patient counterpunching style is the opposite of Ovchynnikova who fell into a body lock with every punch she threw. Lara will be forced to throw some striking at distance and likely eat a few hard right hands from Velasquez, who has legitimate one-punch KO power at 125. Watching Lara eat so many clean shots on the feet, and seeing Velasquez drop Elaine Alburqueque like a bag of hammers with one punch (available on Youtube) makes me think that there's a very good chance Velasquez KO's Lara. I can also see a TKO where Lara fails multiple TD attempts, ends up in a bad position and eats a ton of elbows or hammerfists.

Honestly I don't see how Lara wins this except for some odd mistake by Velasquez in transition which leads to an armbar. But, as mentioned earlier, her judo background probably gives her a significant advantage in these transitions.
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Excellent post. Only one tiny correction; since Velasquez is a southpaw, it's her straight left that is her main weapon, not her straight right. To be fair, it's her only real punch of any consequence (her "jab", if it can even be called that, sucks, and she doesn't throw hooks), but it's more than enough, and way better than all of Lara's striking put together.
 
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