Bellator 214 Fedor vs Bader

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[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Fight is a little barren for betting. Fedor has a shot, but +300 is about right for someone with a puncher's chance.

Pico should destroy Corrales (who is worse than Higo), but that will likely be reflected in the odds. Keeping an eye on Bandejas-Archuleta; Bandejas is a nice prospect, but Archuleta is good and should have a big edge.

 

[Oblivian]

Am I going to be the only one here on Fedor?

 

[Soccer Steve]

Am I going to be the only one here on Fedor?

No way. I’m on him to win by that overhand via nostalgia.

 

[Vir_Ars]

I'm putting some money on Fedor, sounds crazy, I know

 

[lefontes]

Under1.5 Bader/Fedor are @1.57 on 1xbet, imo is easy money, This fight will done on the first round. Im put the limit on this bet.

 

[ill800]

I got Bader at -170 and I’m thinking about just freerolling on fedor

Fedor submission!

 

[Vir_Ars]

I got Bader at -170 and I’m thinking about just freerolling on fedor

Fedor submission!

The reason to me, to put money in Fedor, is that Fedor have a Legit ground game and a lot of power and knowledge to use that power.

My concerns, is that Bader is younger, a westler and with a better gastank

 

[ill800]

The reason to me, to put money in Fedor, is that Fedor have a Legit ground game and a lot of power and knowledge to use that power.

My concerns, is that Bader is younger, a westler and with a better gastank

Yea but We haven’t seen fedor do anything significant on the ground in years, besides getting subbed by werdum

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Am I going to be the only one here on Fedor?

At the current price of +320, I'm tempted to make a small play myself. Bader is an excellent fighter, but Fedor made his legend by neutralizing great wrestlers and he can still blast people on the feet, the latter a weakness of Bader's. As we saw against Sonnen, Fedor STILL has very good takedown defense and he is STILL pretty good at getting back up from the ground, if not as excellent as in his prime.

Look, Fedor is dealing with a slew of injuries in addition to advanced age and a chin made of china, but his reactions and timing are still there, and he is still good at the same things he was in his prime, if not to the same degree.

If Bader fights right, he will get a few takedowns in the first, wear Fedor down, then maul and finish him in the second. But is there a 25% or higher chance Fedor catches him before then?

I think so.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Under1.5 Bader/Fedor are @1.57 on 1xbet, imo is easy money, This fight will done on the first round. Im put the limit on this bet.

That's a pretty expensive line and I disagree it being easy money. Bader isn't dumb, he knows Fedor can KO him and the simplest thing for him to do will be to immediately take him down, which I think he can, and grind him and gas him for 5 minutes. You might have a loooong 2minutes 30seconds at the start of Roun 2 to sit through hoping Bader doesn't just rinse and repeat, or Fedor can connect clean and immensely.

 

[lefontes]

That's a pretty expensive line and I disagree it being easy money. Bader isn't dumb, he knows Fedor can KO him and the simplest thing for him to do will be to immediately take him down, which I think he can, and grind him and gas him for 5 minutes. You might have a loooong 2minutes 30seconds at the start of Roun 2 to sit through hoping Bader doesn't just rinse and repeat, or Fedor can connect clean and immensely.

On 1xbet this U1.5 is about 2 rounds. Im lost if going to round 3, i think that this is done inside 2 rounds. But i like your breakdown.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

If Bader fights right he is a good bet even @ super juiced odds to beat old Fedor.
The thing is, if Bader respects you in any of kind of capacity his game is totally different (and not in a good way) than if he thinks he can just crush you. I am not sure what his mentality will be v Fedor. I tend to think he'll give him respect, and historically nobody that beat Fedor was giving him any kind of respect if my memory is correct?

What that win over Mitrione told us? Nothing. Matt was always very bad v wrestlers/grapplers. Even Travis beat him, and this is one of his worst losses in hindsight. Fedor is chinny and doesn't have cardio for more than a round. But inside that 1st round he is still very dangerous and he can very easily push Bader into a panic mode (if Bader doesn't do this to himself before that). I can easily see Emilianenko submitting Bader if he freaks out, or catch him with something. But I will repeat myself, if Bader actually fights right, it's his fight to lose. It all depends on that. Is he gonna shit the bed or not?

 

[Soccer Steve]

Fedor's only path is KO, right? Any point waiting on that prop or will it basically be a mirror of his ML? I can't see a sub presenting itself with Ryan's wrestling.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Fedor's only path is KO, right? Any point waiting on that prop or will it basically be a mirror of his ML? I can't see a sub presenting itself with Ryan's wrestling.

Yeah, Fedor's primary path, by far, is knockout. Props don't always make sense though, so it may be worth it to wait on that instead of just betting him ML.

I recall Fedor was like a -230 favorite against Chael, but only -150 to win inside the distance, the latter line which I grabbed.

 

[theTKDguy]

Fedor vs bader under, fight to end via ko
Pico
Hager

Are locks

 

[BaruchSpinoza]

I've got:
1u Fedor via KO/TKO @ +500
1u Bader KO/TKO round 1 @ +320
5u Fight not starting the 4th round @ -278
2u Bader @ -200

 

[OddLook]

Put my money at Bader wins inside the distance at 1.75(-133) at parimatch bookey.

 

[BaruchSpinoza]

Under1.5 Bader/Fedor are @1.57 on 1xbet, imo is easy money, This fight will done on the first round. Im put the limit on this bet.

Fight to be finished in 1, 2 or 3 @ 1.36, sounds pretty good to me! If there is a larger than 10% chance that the fight will finish in the later part of round two or in the third round, this bet would have better value.

(there is no such thing as "easy money" in betting btw)