Bellator 219 Awad vs Girtz

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I'm going to start tailing piglord on these Bellator cards. I don't know shit about any of these Bellator guys...
 
I'll bite on Girtz if his odds increase.
 
Can anybody enlighten me why Mokhatina is so juiced? Harding isn't very good so I get why she is correct fave, but she just lost a 5 round decision vs a low tier opponent and I just don't see why the market is so confident in her
 
Bellator 219 official early weigh-ins:

 
I believe I found the underdog of the weekend. I see a lot of value in Kiwi Janay Harding who fights out of Australia as a sizable underdog to Russian submission specialist Marina Mokhnatkina. Firstly there is a significant size difference with Janay being a much bigger girl at 5'10" to Marina's 5'6"- check the weigh-ins. This bout is at featherweight where Janay has competed in her last couple of bouts, while Marina's last few bouts have been at bantamweight. This includes Marina's most recent 135 pound title fight at Fight Night Global 83 where she lost a majority decision in her home country of Russia against a Georgian opponent from the Euro scene. Marina is a submission over position grappler who dives on opportunistic submissions as her main game plan. Yet she was defended against and was reversed by opponent Liana Jojua multiple times, caught with punches on the feet and even had her back taken on the feet or ended up on her back on the ground. Marina seemed to get a bit tired at some points and while she kept fighting she even had a point deducted for an illegal upkick to her opponent's head while she was on her back in guard and ultimately lost a majority decision including one 49-45 against her.

On the contrary, Janay has fought more notable competition including an early career bout with Megan Anderson, as well as Jessica Rose Clark and Amber Leibrock. Janay stopped her last opponent Sinead Kavanagh by TKO after the first round due to a doctor's stoppage as a result of a cut from a slicing elbow strike- not the only one she landed in that bout, by the way. Janay has pretty good footwork with decent boxing and hard elbow strikes on the feet and multiple fights that she won due to ground & pound on her record. She was also able to stuff Sinead's takedown attempt easily. With Marina potentially diving onto leg locks and other submissions I can see Janay hurting Marina on the feet or the ground. Janay trains at Tiger Muay Thai and has never been submitted, which would be Marina's most likely path to victory while Marina will presumably making the long trek to Temecula, California from St. Petersburg, Russia for her very first fight outside of Russia. The line is clearly skewed the way it is because of Marina's 4-1 record vs Janay's 4-4 record, but I think the line is way off. If Marina doesn't get a submission I believe she will lose a decision or maybe even get stopped. I'm five units deep so far on Janay at +285, +290 and +300.
 
For the record, Mokhnatkina would have beaten Liana Jojua if it was 3 rounds. She gassed hard, losing rounds 4 and 5 while getting a point deducted (probably unjustly). She won the first 3 rounds on one judge's cards, and 2 of the first 3 rounds on another judge's cards.

Since the fight against Harding is 3 rounds, not 5, her lack of 5-round cardio isn't relevant. And thus, it's not so much the result of that fight that folks should pay attention to.

Additionally, Liana Jojua, who has just signed with the UFC, is herself a grappler, with 5 of her 7 wins by submission. She was still repeatedly taken down, swept, and came very close to being tapped on numerous occasions. Harding was just able to keep from being taken down by Amber Leibrock and Sinead Kavanagh, whose grappling is very close to zero.
 
was only half a unit but will go a full unit after further thought, i think this is a really winnable fight for janay.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
For the record, Mokhnatkina would have beaten Liana Jojua if it was 3 rounds. She gassed hard, losing rounds 4 and 5 while getting a point deducted (probably unjustly). She won the first 3 rounds on one judge's cards, and 2 of the first 3 rounds on another judge's cards.

Since the fight against Harding is 3 rounds, not 5, her lack of 5-round cardio isn't relevant. And thus, it's not so much the result of that fight that folks should pay attention to.

Additionally, Liana Jojua, who has just signed with the UFC, is herself a grappler, with 5 of her 7 wins by submission. She was still repeatedly taken down, swept, and came very close to being tapped on numerous occasions. Harding was just able to keep from being taken down by Amber Leibrock and Sinead Kavanagh, whose grappling is very close to zero.
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Harding was also taken down and held down by Ramona Pascual before coming back for a KO win...it's just really hard to feel confident in her grappling defense to survive vs an opponent like Mokhnatkina after diving into tape.
 
One of these dogs has to hit. Initially, I was thinking Harding, partially due to Marina's terrible performance her last fight, and the long layoff. But upon closer inspection, Marina's last fight was at 135, and maybe she just shouldn't have been at that weight - even so, she only gassed late in the fight. As far as the layoff, she won a sambo tournament late in 2018, at 149 lbs, so maybe that is her optimum weight and she's not so rusty after all. Harding could win, and I will root for her cause she's kind of cute, but no money on this fight at her price.

Girtz is being disrespected like piglord said. That fight can go either way, so I may bite.

Koreshkov isn't losing.

They just put odds up for Schilling vs Berry, and that looks more enticing to me.

Hell, even Straus at those outrageous odds could be something there. New weight, layoff from a horrific set of circumstances. Kruchten is nothing special at all, but has trained at the MMA Lab for this camp,. so if Daniel only has one round in him..
 
Tony J said:
One of these dogs has to hit. Initially, I was thinking Harding, partially due to Marina's terrible performance her last fight, and the long layoff. But upon closer inspection, Marina's last fight was at 135, and maybe she just shouldn't have been at that weight - even so, she only gassed late in the fight. As far as the layoff, she won a sambo tournament late in 2018, at 149 lbs, so maybe that is her optimum weight and she's not so rusty after all. Harding could win, and I will root for her cause she's kind of cute, but no money on this fight at her price.

Girtz is being disrespected like piglord said. That fight can go either way, so I may bite.

Koreshkov isn't losing.

They just put odds up for Schilling vs Berry, and that looks more enticing to me.

Hell, even Straus at those outrageous odds could be something there. New weight, layoff from a horrific set of circumstances. Kruchten is nothing special at all, but has trained at the MMA Lab for this camp,. so if Daniel only has one round in him..
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New weight for Kruchten too whose had three fights in six years and only beaten guys with losing records. Hes also a recovering alcoholic. Spent about two months at the Lab doesnt normally train there. But yeah Straus coming back from an horrific accident so who knows but Krutchen sucks.
 
Sham5916910 said:
New weight for Kruchten too whose had three fights in six years and only beaten guys with losing records. Hes also a recovering alcoholic. Spent about two months at the Lab doesnt normally train there. But yeah Straus coming back from an horrific accident so who knows but Krutchen sucks.
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I don't disagree at all. Def worth a flier imo. I'll add that with Straus, even pre-accident, I noticed him gassing or giving up - granted, against guys about 3 levels higher than Shane, but worth noting given today's circumstances.
 
Some good prices on totals specifically o2.5 for Straus at 2.10. Thoughts?
 
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