Bellator 290: Bader vs Fedor 2—February 4, 2023

[Stat_Collector]

I'm not sure Diana is safe, been pretty underwhelmed with her against some very low level girls.

she’ll be super juiced probably so i’ll just pass anyways.

 

[DabanggData]

Bellator 290: Bader vs. Emelianenko 2

Saturday 02.04.2023 at 06:00 PM ET
U.S. Broadcast: CBS | Prelims: YouTube

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/95280-bellator-290-bader-vs-emelianenko-2
https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/70530

Alejandra Lara has 3 straight decision losses as a favorite... she should be favored here but opened +241 lol, 3.54331 inch reach advantage for Alejandra Lara

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/bellator-290-2786
https://fightodds.io/odds/4475/bellator-290-bader-vs-emelianenko-2
https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/martial-arts/mma/bellator-290

I took Steve Mowry +195, opened +250, 4.72441 inches taller, 1.1811 inch reach advantage, 9 years younger
https://www.instagram.com/tallstevefightspeople/?hl=en

also took Yusuf Karakaya +191, age 28
https://www.instagram.com/yukarakaya/?hl=en






Mowry won ten straight fights before an eyepoke last time out against former champion Valentin Moldavsky lead to a no-contest. Currently ranked at #5, Mowry will be looking to secure a win to put his name in the hat to face the winner of Bellator 290’s main event of Ryan Bader vs. Fedor Emelianenko for the heavyweight title.

“February 4, 2023, you are going to see the nastiest, meanest, most violent, most complete Steve Mowry that’s ever been in the cage.”

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/bouts/723564-bellator-290-steve-mowry-vs-ali-isaev



Generated subtitles here:

 

[BFoe]

Bellator 290: Bader vs. Emelianenko 2

Saturday 02.04.2023 at 06:00 PM ET
U.S. Broadcast: CBS | Prelims: YouTube

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/95280-bellator-290-bader-vs-emelianenko-2
https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/70530

Alejandra Lara has 3 straight decision losses as a favorite... she should be favored here but opened +241 lol, 3.54331 inch reach advantage for Alejandra Lara

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/bellator-290-2786
https://fightodds.io/odds/4475/bellator-290-bader-vs-emelianenko-2
https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/martial-arts/mma/bellator-290

I took Steve Mowry +195, opened +250, 4.72441 inches taller, 1.1811 inch reach advantage, 9 years younger
https://www.instagram.com/tallstevefightspeople/?hl=en

also took Yusuf Karakaya +191, age 28
https://www.instagram.com/yukarakaya/?hl=en






Mowry won ten straight fights before an eyepoke last time out against former champion Valentin Moldavsky lead to a no-contest. Currently ranked at #5, Mowry will be looking to secure a win to put his name in the hat to face the winner of Bellator 290’s main event of Ryan Bader vs. Fedor Emelianenko for the heavyweight title.

“February 4, 2023, you are going to see the nastiest, meanest, most violent, most complete Steve Mowry that’s ever been in the cage.”

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/bouts/723564-bellator-290-steve-mowry-vs-ali-isaev



Generated subtitles here:

Thank you! I updated the OP with a better link to the full fight odds, and I also edited the OP to note where Fedor/Bader opened at and where the line sits now.

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

1 unit Akhmed Magomedov -455

Akhmed Magomedov is 10 years younger, 26 vs 36. Classic russian dagestani, 5 subs and 4 dec. Who has faced overall mediocre to decent competition. Had a quick sub last fight.

Henry Corrales lost to Johnny Camobell, and has lost by submission 3 times. I think there is a very clear path to victory here for Magomedov, take Corrales down and submit him.

Seems like another mismatch, which have seen quite a lot of in Bellator. Likely will widen to -600 -700 or so. Juiced but not juiced enough in my opinion.

 

[Thesnake101]

Think Karl might be worth a stab here. His last fight is an ugly loss but he was doing pretty well until he got rocked, which is something I can't see Neal doing since he's never flashed anything outside of good wrestling.

Albrektsson is the more experienced, versatile guy and I think he'll pick up a comfortable win.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Value on Bates imo. I get why people were playing Lugo when he opened as a dog last time but no way he should be a massive favourite like he is now.

 

[Thesnake101]

Value on Bates imo. I get why people were playing Lugo when he opened as a dog last time but no way he should be a massive favourite like he is now.

Easy pass imo. No value on Lugo but he should win more often than not, given Bates' propensity to make hard work of bad opposition. Maybe a play on Jornel if the odds shift.

Really like Eblen here, already cashed on him against Mousasi and I think this is an easier fight for him.

I've been familiar with Tokov for years now, was hyped snd subsequently underwhelmed by his fight with Emeev back when it happened. Feels like he never really made the jump to truly elite MW despite being as consistent as can be.

Factoring inactivity, a possibly suspect chin (Harris shouldn't faceplant you, ever) and what I think will be negated wrestling between the two, I think I'll take the guy who's dropped Mousasi and has the type of confidence undefeated guys carry. I might play Eblen's KO line if I can get my hands on it.

 

[kenfloshogun]

Does anyone remember the first couple of mins of Larkin/Berkhamov? How was it going?

 

[Thesnake101]

Any thoughts on Caldwell's fight? Not interested in playing him even as an underdog since he's slowed down a lot and his style doesn't translate well for the current day judging criteria, but I think Mikhailov might be overpriced.

It's definitely going to be a grappling heavy fight, which might kill Darrion's gas tank if Nikita can scramble, but maybe he'll just get stuck under Darrion long enough to lose a decision.

 

[Tyrone woods]

Anyone got any leans for homassi vs ward? Really tempted on Ward as an underdog and his R2 prop when it’s released

 

[Danis_champ]

Does anyone remember the first couple of mins of Larkin/Berkhamov? How was it going?

Berk was cage hugging him against the fence that being said he was winning the fight that's why the odds are bit wider this time.

 

[Thesnake101]

Anyone got any leans for homassi vs ward? Really tempted on Ward as an underdog and his R2 prop when it’s released

Seems like a horrible matchup for Ward since his chin has never been good, he's been getting softballs since coming back from all the issues he had outside the cage, and Homasi has been able to get off early against most of his opponents in Bellator so far.

If you're not too keen on picking Sabah as the favorite I'd go with the under instead.

 

[lefontes]

Hugues x Karakaya Thoughts please.

 

[Thesnake101]

Screw it, fading the russian girl and adding her opponent as a leg to this parlay: Lara ML/Karl ML/Homasi ML/Eblen ML

Pulled the trigger earlier than usual cuz the lines were getting worse for all but Sabah.

 

[johno]

Anyone got any leans for homassi vs ward? Really tempted on Ward as an underdog and his R2 prop when it’s released

I realise wards last fight was after a lay off but it wasn't great despite the win. Homasi is actually a proper welterweight, with a training camp, at att

 

[BigSteve]

Hugues x Karakaya Thoughts please.

Played Karakaya at 2.55, Bet365 removed the line today. No idea what is going on

 

[Thesnake101]

Played Karakaya at 2.55, Bet365 removed the line today. No idea what is going on

Stake did the same, fight might be cancelled.

Darrion's dog line is getting bigger and bigger, added to a parlay but I'll probably hit it if it keeps ballooning up. Nikita himself looked pretty dumb when it came to managing his gas tank against Barzola, so I don't think he should be a mear -200 over Caldwell.

Envious of everyone who managed to get Mowry at huge dog odds. He might get blanketed, but Isaev has a lot of things going against him for this fight.

Not much to say except that money has been coming in on guys I like, so at least I'm not alone with my reads.

 

[BigSteve]

Stake did the same, fight might be cancelled.

Darrion's dog line is getting bigger and bigger, added to a parlay but I'll probably hit it if it keeps ballooning up. Nikita himself looked pretty dumb when it came to managing his gas tank against Barzola, so I don't think he should be a mear -200 over Caldwell.

Envious of everyone who managed to get Mowry at huge dog odds. He might get blanketed, but Isaev has a lot of things going against him for this fight.

Not much to say except that money has been coming in on guys I like, so at least I'm not alone with my reads.

not canceled its back now. Just a ton of money on the Turkish dude. Someone I know had their bet removed due to a 'wrong' line being set. my bet is still valid

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

not canceled its back now. Just a ton of money on the Turkish dude. Someone I know had their bet removed due to a 'wrong' line being set. my bet is still valid

Hughes has pretty stiff striking but what have you seen from Karakaya that made you want to back him?

Karakaya is famous in Turkey for winning Survivor (the reality tv show). He doesn't have any real grappling skills or notable kickboxing results. I read he wasn't training from 2014-2019. That sub he got in his pro debut in 2019 was against an Iranian kickboxer, brought in to lose, and he tapped before a squeeze was even applied.

Hughes should be a sizeable favorite. He is probably going to armbar him.

 

[PuertoRican]

Screw it, fading the russian girl and adding her opponent as a leg to this parlay: Lara ML/Karl ML/Homasi ML/Eblen ML

Why would you fade the Russian girl, aside from having less professional fights than Lara?

I know my reasons for why I'll make a medium to big sized bet on Diana Avsaragova when I land in Vegas in a couple of days.