Bellator London MVP vs Melillo

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

How is Shipman being the value side even debatable?

Probably because I really wanted to bet him against Fabian, decided not to for reasons that played out in the fight, and saved money as a result?

Was Terry Brazier the "value side", incidentally? Great bet there, man!

 

[Soccer Steve]

How is Shipman being the value side even debatable?

It isn't. But then again you bet to win money via value in the long term so what do you know?

 

[Jordan3399]

Probably because I really wanted to bet him against Fabian, decided not to for reasons that played out in the fight, and saved money as a result?

Was Terry Brazier the "value side", incidentally? Great bet there, man!

Do you even understand the concept of value? Shipman goes to a 50/50 decision in a fight where nothing particularly unusual happened but +300 isn't value?

And criticising betting Brazier at +273? Really?

You never disappoint with the lunacy.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

2u on Fabian WIN
1u on Brazier loss

+1u

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Do you even understand the concept of value? Shipman goes to a 50/50 decision in a fight where nothing particularly unusual happened but +300 isn't value?

I understand value. You don't. "Everything goes perfectly for fighter X, everything goes badly for fighter Y, and fighter Y is still a little better and wins" does not mean that Y should have only been -120 or whatever it is you're arguing.

Now, perhaps he shouldn't have been -350 either, but it's not a clear-cut case of value, either. Again, I really wanted to bet Shipman in this spot.

And criticising betting Brazier at +273? Really?

According to your BetMMA account, it was 3.20, or +220. More lies, Jordie?

Regardless, he looked like more of a +400 there, if not worse. Garbage bet.

You never disappoint with the lunacy.

More projection!

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Daley is criticizing MVP's opponents, but in MVP's defense, he was originally scheduled to fight Derek Anderson, a far more substantial opponent, before he withdrew due to injury. Melillo was a late-notice replacement.

 

[Dathorn]

Daley is criticizing MVP's opponents, but in MVP's defense, he was originally scheduled to fight Derek Anderson, a far more substantial opponent, before he withdrew due to injury. Melillo was a late-notice replacement.

They should be criticized. I like MVP, but objectively he's only fought 3 or 4 guys worth even mentioning depending on who you want to count. Non Padded record, he's basically 3-1 or 2-1.

 

[Jordan3399]

I understand value. You don't. "Everything goes perfectly for fighter X, everything goes badly for fighter Y, and fighter Y is still a little better and wins" does not mean that Y should have only been -120 or whatever it is you're arguing.

Now, perhaps he shouldn't have been -350 either, but it's not a clear-cut case of value, either. Again, I really wanted to bet Shipman in this spot.



According to your BetMMA account, it was 3.20, or +220. More lies, Jordie?

Regardless, he looked like more of a +400 there, if not worse. Garbage bet.



More projection!

You're talking like Shipman massively overperformed and Edwards massively underperformed which is retardedly off. Yet in comparison you complete disregard the fact that maybe Brazier underperformed. If it was so obvious where was your maxbet on Bak?

Not to mention I bet Brazier early and reduced when the line closed, I thought something like that would be obvious but evidently you still don't grasp things like that either.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

You're talking like Shipman massively overperformed and Edwards massively underperformed which is retardedly off.

Nah, it's spot-on. Round 3 is what the entire fight should have looked like based on the skills we saw of both fighters on tape.

Did you lose money on Shipman, too? Or are you just hell-bent on arguing after another losing card?

Yet in comparison you complete disregard the fact that maybe Brazier underperformed. If it was so obvious where was your maxbet on Bak?

I didn't tape the fight at all. Say, why did you feel the need to lie about the price you got Brazier for?

Was +220 too embarrassing, so you had to fudge it up to +273?

Not to mention I bet Brazier early and reduced when the line closed, I thought something like that would be obvious but evidently you still don't grasp things like that either.

HAHA. "I always hedge at the last second on the prebets I lose but never hedge on the prebets that I win!"

Typical Jordie.

 

[Jordan3399]

Nah, it's spot-on. Round 3 is what the entire fight should have looked like based on the skills we saw of both fighters on tape.

Did you lose money on Shipman, too? Or are you just hell-bent on arguing after another losing card?



I didn't tape the fight at all. Say, why did you feel the need to lie about the price you got Brazier for?

Was +220 too embarrassing, so you had to fudge it up to +273?



HAHA. "I always hedge at the last second on the prebets I lose but never hedge on the prebets that I win!"

Typical Jordie.

Could you be anymore of a clown? Criticising the Brazier bet when you didn't even tape it? Not thinking Shipman was the value side? And then acting like reducing risk is some unheard of concept?

Still amazes me anyone takes you remotely seriously, saying all that nonsense then trying to criticise me when I have a third party tracked tip record with great results. Never ceases to entertain me lol.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Could you be anymore of a clown? Criticising the Brazier bet when you didn't even tape it?

Haha, so you're seriously arguing that Bak massively overperformed his tape, while Brazier underperformed? Too funny.

Clowns are going to clown. While accusing everyone else of being the clown.

Not thinking Shipman was the value side?

Sorry the logic was too complex for you to grasp. You can now go back to making garbage pre-bets, lying about magic, unprovable live-bets and hedges, and calling yourself a "professoinal MMA gambler" on Twitter.

And then acting like reducing risk is some unheard of concept?

Even if true, that's not the same as getting Brazier at "+273". Your BetMMA account, which you proudly advertise, states you got him at +220.

And again, there is a downside to "reducing risk", which is that you also reduce your winnings if you're successful. Magically though, that downside never, ever happens to you, only the upside of hedging losing pre-bets.

What a coincidence!

 

[Jordan3399]

Haha, so you're seriously arguing that Bak massively overperformed his tape, while Brazier underperformed? Too funny.

Clowns are going to clown. While accusing everyone else of being the clown.



Sorry the logic was too complex for you to grasp. You can now go back to making garbage pre-bets, lying about magic, unprovable live-bets and hedges, and calling yourself a "professoinal MMA gambler" on Twitter.



Even if true, that's not the same as getting Brazier at "+273". Your BetMMA account, which you proudly advertise, states you got him at +220.

And again, there is a downside to "reducing risk", which is that you also reduce your winnings if you're successful. Magically though, that downside never, ever happens to you, only the upside of hedging losing pre-bets.

What a coincidence!

And that's just in the last 3 months

Where's your record Paul?

 

[Gugabe]

Kind of? As I wrote elsewhere, I was actually surprised by how flawed and deficient in basic skills Shipman was when looking at the tape contrasted with his glossy record. He's just a tough bastard and overachiever who has defeated many guys with better skills and natural talent over his career.

I thought the skill gap would be too much against Fabian, even if the difference between him and his older brother is comparable to the difference between Dhiego and Douglas Lima, and I was half-right, as Fabian underachieved to the point of almost giving the fight away.

When one guy fights perfectly, maxes out his abilities, and another guy severely underperforms and half-asses it, and STILL edges the fight, is -350 correct or overinflated? Hard to say.

+220 goes into a split decision that he should probably have won, that's pretty textbook value side even if he's 'overperforming' and you read on Fabian was incorrect due to him not... living up to having a better sibling?

Your logic here seems to be 'I didn't make the play pre-fight, so it's impossible that it could have been value'

 

[Oliver Clothesoff]

Anyone know where I can watch the Main Card? It streamed for free on MMA Junkie but it's gone now.

 

[Gugabe]

Jordie and Gugabe, Awful Tout Duo Assemble!

Speaking of which, why didn't you put your money on Shipman, then? You could explain it away to the people you scam out of $14 per event with your "it went into a split decision! It's great!", while ignoring the nuance I described above.

Instead, you pissed away that money on a Brazier bet. No way to make excuses for that garbage pick!

Brazier went from +220 to +100. CLV alone for a small stab is fine. Didn't like Shipman pre-fight personally, but the way that events play out means that +200 stab on him is advantage play even if I wouldn't agree with it. Shipman'd be a better pick than Brazier, I'd be happy to say that.

If you're consistently getting splits out of +200's you're going to make money in the longterm.

 

[piglord]

If you're consistently getting splits out of +200's you're going to make money in the longterm.

although perhaps not in 2019.

 

[Gugabe]

although perhaps not in 2019.

My tipping record on decisions this year where the non-majority MMAdecisions fighter won is insane, but it should normalize in the longterm or atleast not be 90% losses. Going by mmadecisions since it should be the most fair metric of who won on consensus. Been an awful year for judging.

2-10-1 for -41.02u when I'm down 17.5u for the year on tips through this shit.

Won:
Casey Kenney over Ray Borg +7.16u
Gutierrez over Freitas +2.2u
Griffin-Imadaev should have been a draw +2.63u

Lost:
Abreu over Gazmatov -3.3u swing
GM3 over Anders -4u
Cole Smith V Miles Johns is even media split so whatever but Smith was still +137 when I got him
Krantz over Song (Tbh felt Song got this pretty clear but media disagrees) -4.76u
Trinaldo over Hernandez -4.7u
Morales over Lopez -3.8u
Chirico over Holland -3u
Lineker over Sandhagen -4.25u
Arlovski over Sakai -5.5u
GM3 over Holland -11.75u
Rothwell over Ivanov -7.95u