What general rules do you have for betting MMA?
For example:
Fighters over 34 tend to be significantly slower and have less explosiveness than those under 30. Dagestani wrestling credentials can do the same, and Olympic/Commonwealth credentials also count
Strong American wrestling credentials (particularly collegiate) are generally the biggest indicator of success
Fighters tend not to improve without an extended layoff - Once a fighter displays a weakness, it's there forever
Fighters with cardio issues will always have cardio issues
Fighters with low fight IQ will lose to anyone who is a specialist in their area of weakness, even if they have their own clear path to victory
Blindly bet all Nigerian fighters
Once a fighter's chin is gone, they don't get it back (unless they're Andre Arlovski)
Where all things are equal, athleticism is the deciding factor
Once a fighter who has been around for a long time starts talking about retirement, they're done
Fighters will undersell their injuries - without 3+ months between injury and fight, the injury will still significantly affect them
Fighters who just had a baby win fights
Fighters who haven't had the amount of time to train that they're used to will perform worse than usual - Athleticism is not an equaliser
What a fighter looks like at the weigh in means a whole load of fuck all
Fighter motivation in interviews means a whole load of fuck all
Fighters who rely on athleticism decline faster than fat fucks unless the athletic fighters make clear technical adjustments or are on whatever Yoel Romero is taking
Shot/slow fighters may mask their declines against other shot/slow fighters
Blindly fade Astra Fight Team
Blindly fade Xtreme Couture unless fighting a team that is clearly worse (Astra Fight Team, European fight teams) or fighter is exceptional talent that would shine anywhere
Chin issues tend to go away up a weight class, and present themselves when dropping one
Fighters renowned for their pace at lower weight classes don't succeed at higher weight classes, power strikers/wrestlers do