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Current champions and the likelihood of them still being champion in a year. For the sake of consistency, I'm going to assume everyone here fights exactly twice.
Alexandre Pantoja
Likely 2024 fights: Moreno/Albazi winner, Nicolau/Kape winner
Prediction: Damage could catch up to him fast, but I still like him in both of these fights. I think the FLW title is in a period of stability.
Verdict: Still champion in a year
Sean O'Malley
Likely 2024 fights: Marlon Vera, Merab/Cejudo winner
Prediction: Depends on Merab/Cejudo winner and if he fights more than twice. Vera is losable, but I still favor Sean. If Cejudo beats Merab, Sean will beat him. 35+ year olds are 0-11 in title fights below WW. If Merab wins, it's a tossup. Still think Sean could find a knockout.
Verdict: Still champion in a year
Alexander Volkanovski
Likely 2024 fights: Ilia Topuria, tbd/Ilia Topuria rematch
Prediction: Volk is aging fast and starting to take damage in his fights. 35+ year olds at LW and below are 0-11 in title fights.
Verdict: Not champion in a year
Islam Makhachev
Likely 2024 fights: Charles Oliveira, Gaethje/Tsarukyan
Prediction: Islam's in his prime, and I favor him against every other LW. He only loses belt if he takes it off himself, which I don't think he does.
Verdict: Still champion in a year
Leon Edwards
Likely 2024 fights: Belal Muhammad, Shavkat Rakhmonov
Prediction: Will beat Muhammad. Leon's a tough matchup for Belal, and 35+ year olds are 1-7 against guys under 35 in title fights at WW. A loss to Shavkat in that potential fight isn't a foregone conclusion, but I still favor Shavkat, and I wouldn't rule out Leon vacating and going up to MW either.
Verdict: Not champion in a year
Sean Strickland
Most likely 2024 fights: Dricus du Plessis, Khamzat Chimaev
Prediction: Call me crazy, but I actually like Sean in both of these fights. Both opponents are bats out of hell, but Sean is defensively sound enough in both striking and grappling (I consider the Pereira fight an anomaly/bad matchup) that I don't think either will get him out of there early. I don't see either winning a 5 rounder against him after he survives the initial onslaught.
Verdict: Still champion in a year
Alex Pereira
Most likely 2024 fights: Jamahal Hill, Magomed Ankalaev
Prediction: Alex will be vulnerable to a knockout loss vs. Hill, but even if he wins, I think Ankalaev (or possibly Rakic) simply outgrapple him.
Verdict: Not champion in a year
Jon Jones
Most likely 2024 fights: Stipe Miocic, Tom Aspinall
Prediction: The reality is that the most likely outcome is that Jon will beat Stipe and then hang it up. I wouldn't completely rule out him fighting Aspinall and doing Jon Jones things en route to a victory after, but I can't say the combination of these two things coming together is the most likely circumstance.
Verdict: Not champion in a year
Weili Zhang
Most likely 2024 fights: Yan Xiaonan, Tatiana Suarez
Prediction: Determing who Weili fights in 2023 is a bit up in the air, and I wouldn't completely rule out her fighting Tatiana and getting outgrappled, but the reality is that she's in her prime and a step above the rest of the division at this point.
Verdict: Still champion in a year
Alexa Grasso
Most likely 2024 fights: Valentina Shevchenko, Erin Blanchfield/Manon Fiorot
Prediction: I don't see Alexa surviving two of the potential fights I listed.
Verdict: Not champion in a year
Alexandre Pantoja
Likely 2024 fights: Moreno/Albazi winner, Nicolau/Kape winner
Prediction: Damage could catch up to him fast, but I still like him in both of these fights. I think the FLW title is in a period of stability.
Verdict: Still champion in a year
Sean O'Malley
Likely 2024 fights: Marlon Vera, Merab/Cejudo winner
Prediction: Depends on Merab/Cejudo winner and if he fights more than twice. Vera is losable, but I still favor Sean. If Cejudo beats Merab, Sean will beat him. 35+ year olds are 0-11 in title fights below WW. If Merab wins, it's a tossup. Still think Sean could find a knockout.
Verdict: Still champion in a year
Alexander Volkanovski
Likely 2024 fights: Ilia Topuria, tbd/Ilia Topuria rematch
Prediction: Volk is aging fast and starting to take damage in his fights. 35+ year olds at LW and below are 0-11 in title fights.
Verdict: Not champion in a year
Islam Makhachev
Likely 2024 fights: Charles Oliveira, Gaethje/Tsarukyan
Prediction: Islam's in his prime, and I favor him against every other LW. He only loses belt if he takes it off himself, which I don't think he does.
Verdict: Still champion in a year
Leon Edwards
Likely 2024 fights: Belal Muhammad, Shavkat Rakhmonov
Prediction: Will beat Muhammad. Leon's a tough matchup for Belal, and 35+ year olds are 1-7 against guys under 35 in title fights at WW. A loss to Shavkat in that potential fight isn't a foregone conclusion, but I still favor Shavkat, and I wouldn't rule out Leon vacating and going up to MW either.
Verdict: Not champion in a year
Sean Strickland
Most likely 2024 fights: Dricus du Plessis, Khamzat Chimaev
Prediction: Call me crazy, but I actually like Sean in both of these fights. Both opponents are bats out of hell, but Sean is defensively sound enough in both striking and grappling (I consider the Pereira fight an anomaly/bad matchup) that I don't think either will get him out of there early. I don't see either winning a 5 rounder against him after he survives the initial onslaught.
Verdict: Still champion in a year
Alex Pereira
Most likely 2024 fights: Jamahal Hill, Magomed Ankalaev
Prediction: Alex will be vulnerable to a knockout loss vs. Hill, but even if he wins, I think Ankalaev (or possibly Rakic) simply outgrapple him.
Verdict: Not champion in a year
Jon Jones
Most likely 2024 fights: Stipe Miocic, Tom Aspinall
Prediction: The reality is that the most likely outcome is that Jon will beat Stipe and then hang it up. I wouldn't completely rule out him fighting Aspinall and doing Jon Jones things en route to a victory after, but I can't say the combination of these two things coming together is the most likely circumstance.
Verdict: Not champion in a year
Weili Zhang
Most likely 2024 fights: Yan Xiaonan, Tatiana Suarez
Prediction: Determing who Weili fights in 2023 is a bit up in the air, and I wouldn't completely rule out her fighting Tatiana and getting outgrappled, but the reality is that she's in her prime and a step above the rest of the division at this point.
Verdict: Still champion in a year
Alexa Grasso
Most likely 2024 fights: Valentina Shevchenko, Erin Blanchfield/Manon Fiorot
Prediction: I don't see Alexa surviving two of the potential fights I listed.
Verdict: Not champion in a year
