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TrueAscension

TrueAscension

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Yall take this down if you want but a few peeps asked me about betting on esports.
Now would be a good time to live bet Liquid as they are down 1-0 and are a far better team.

Sorry if this thread is super off topic.

You can also watch here
 
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TrueAscension said:
Yall take this down if you want but a few peeps asked me about betting on esports.
Now would be a good time to live bet Liquid as they are down 1-0 and are a far better team.

Sorry if this thread is super off topic.

You can also watch here
Click to expand...

Bro where is a goid site to live bet this
 
Its not very often i self reflect on my gambling habits, but me wanting to jump in on live betting esports gots me feeling i need 2 go to rehab
 
Must...not...go full degen...

tenor.gif
 
TrueAscension said:
I HOPE NONE OF YOU BET THIS LOL
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Why would have anyone done that lol. Your reasoning for the bet was "they are losing but are a better team".

Not to mention, Rogue was obviously the right side from the beginning. Not only did my "strictly numbers" model indicate that, but also every single intangible factor was in their favour. ECS is a huge deal for Rogue, and just another online league for Liquid. Liquid are in the middle of a busy schedule of traveling to international events etc, and in general get overrated like all big name teams do; degens bet on their favorite teams.
 
I guess this be the place to discuss eSports my nyukkahs. The Stockholm Major is starting in Dota2 and I already cashed on NiP as an underdog, and VG as a milder favorite than they ought to have been. Tail at your own risk but I'll drop plays I like in here.

Odds aren't released on 5D yet, but Betway is listing:
2.20 VG vs 1.60 EG
2.55 NiP vs 1.45 PSG.LGD
1.60 Secret vs 2.20 Liquid
1.50 Keen vs 2.40 J.Storm
2.30 Chaos vs 1.55 Na'Vi
1.1 Fnatic vs 5.75 Infamous

Tight odds, but I don't think any team ever deserves to be 1.6 vs Liquid. Chaos also happens to be a bad team. I currently like Na'Vi and Liquid, but I'll be livebetting.
 
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playing:
2u EHOME +1.5 @ 1.47
1.5u Na'Vi ML @ 1.53
.25u EHOME +1.5 & Na'Vi ML @ 2.25
 
five teams in DOTA are unanimously considered S-tier at the moment (in order of strength): Secret, VP/Liquid, EG/PSG.LGD.
In the three matches where S-teams are facing lower competition, odds are currently:
EG -161 vs VG
PSG.LGD -204 vs NiP
VP -435 vs Mineski

I think that NiP is a better team than VG and that PSG.LGD is a worse team than EG, my instincts say that NiP is the value side here. PSG.LGD has only been crushing cans as of late. I love my Chinese teams, but they are obviously in a rebuilding state right now and being the top dog in China right now doesn't say an awful lot. (sorry for mixing up the formats, but I like American odds better when eyeballing risk and decimal odds better when accounting)
.75u NiP @ 2.63
1.5u NiP +1.5 @ 1.52

EDIT: justifying my EHOME action above, I'm banking on North American DOTA disappointing as they pretty much always do. I know that EHOME is missing a player, but I just can't trust NA teams as favorites. They are almost Brazil-tier.
 
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2u EHOME +1.5 @ 1.47
1.5u Na'Vi ML @ 1.53
.25u EHOME +1.5 & Na'Vi ML @ 2.25
.75u NiP @ 2.63
1.5u NiP +1.5 @ 1.52
Investment: 6u
Return: 8.08u
Net: 2.08u
ROI: 34.7%
Hit nothing live, got cold feet. I'll go bigger next time.
 
2.08u Mineski vs EHOME decider map played @ 2.10
yeah I'm rolling all my winnings over, never say die brahs

Also hit 2u Keen to beat Liquid, live @ +162. Keen was winning every minute this game but held underdog odds throughout, crazy.
 
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2u EHOME +1.5 @ 1.47
1.5u Na'Vi ML @ 1.53
.25u EHOME +1.5 & Na'Vi ML @ 2.25
.75u NiP @ 2.63
1.5u NiP +1.5 @ 1.52
2u Keen ML, live @ 2.62
2.08u Mineski vs EHOME decider map played @ 2.10

Investment: 10.08u
Return: 17.69u
Net: 7.61u
ROI: 75.5%
good plays today, might run some final livebets on NiP vs Fnatic
 
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live arbitrage:
1u Fnatic ML @ +278
.25u NiP ML @ +760
these motherfucking lines dropped within about 90 seconds. Guaranteed net of at least +.15u, though it looks like my Fnatic ML will cash at the moment. Knock on wood, but I'm calling it:
1u Fnatic ML @ +278

Investment: 11.34u
Return: 21.47u
Net: 10.13u
ROI: 89.4%


Peace out, I'm done for the day.
 
Tomorrow's odds are looking like:
-250 PSG.LGD vs +175 Mineski
-400 Secret vs +255 ViCi
-286 EG vs +195 Keen
-217 Na'Vi vs +171 J.Storm
-256 EHOME vs +200 Infamous
-181 NiP vs +133 Forward
-400 Liquid vs +265 Chaos
-192 VP vs +140 Fnatic

I like NiP at that price against Forward and VP against Fnatic. The heater must go on.
 
1u EHOME ML + PSG.LGD ML @ 1.82
 
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Is there coin to be made from doing straight arbs in this? Obviously if the opportunity arises of course but in the short time ive looked into this wide swings occur in both directions...
 
Austisthunder said:
Is there coin to be made from doing straight arbs in this? Obviously if the opportunity arises of course but in the short time ive looked into this wide swings occur in both directions...
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I arbed the fuck out of that NiP Fnatic game the other day.

I didn't arb the current PSG.LGD vs Mineski game, but Mineski won a fight 2 minutes in and PSG.LGD dropped to -152 when they ought to be like -300 so I dropped 3 units on it lol
EDIT: speaking of which
3u PSG.LGD game 1 ML @ 1.66
 
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Daily reminder to always bet against teams who pick Undying. I don't think I've seen that hero get a W in weeks.
 
OutRun said:
Daily reminder to always bet against teams who pick Undying. I don't think I've seen that hero get a W in weeks.
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Lol Undying has 50% winrate in the major and had 75% in the minor.
 
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