Dana White's Contender Series - Season 6, Week 3 - August 9th

[svmr_db]

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/dwcs-week-3-2609

https://www.sherdog.com/events/Dana-Whites-Contender-Series-Contender-Series-2022-Week-3-93229

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/89495-contender-series-2021-week-3

https://www.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dana_White's_Contender_Series_Season_6

 

[Tebowned]

Bo opened at -300? damn I would’ve emptied the tank there. Sub prop will be tempting.

 

[Stat_Collector]

my two main questions?
Does Anvar win?
is Bo likely to get a ko or sub?

and side note Paulo has better recent activity, should play a huge factor over Jamal who hasn't fought since 2020

 

[Hellowhosthat]

my two main questions?
Does Anvar win?
is Bo likely to get a ko or sub?

and side note Paulo has better recent activity, should play a huge factor over Jamal who hasn't fought since 2020

Erik Silva is a savage from what I've seen of him. Anvar is great on the feet, but if he ends up on the ground I think Silva puts him to sleep.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Gonna have to do some tape on Renato. Pogues is a natural LHW, I'm not sure he should be that big a favourite over anyone at HW.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Erik Silva is a savage from what I've seen of him. Anvar is great on the feet, but if he ends up on the ground I think Silva puts him to sleep.

He has low rated subs tho, most of his opponents have mid high sub losses before .

i also found this gem, Anvar has competed in grappling tournaments.

 

[Tebowned]

He has low rated subs tho, most of his opponents have mid high sub losses before .

i also found this gem, Anvar has competed in grappling tournaments.

FYI: Anyone can compete at f2w. Idk which belt this was. I watched the match on flograpling. He lost by split decision but tried to do a schaub shutdown.

I haven’t looked into this card and don’t have a pick yet but I love grappling more than mma so I thought I’d chime in.

 

[Stat_Collector]

FYI: Anyone can compete at f2w. Idk which belt this was. I watched the match on flograpling. He lost by split decision but tried to do a schaub shutdown.

I haven’t looked into this card and don’t have a pick yet but I love grappling more than mma so I thought I’d chime in.

Who's his opponent and what's his belt color? I think regardless its not about trying to prove he is better at bjj but can he survive sub attacks and scramble to his feet.

Most kick boxers have solid getups and td defense and are good athletes, the fact he is mixing grappling and developing a defense for it is gd for me.

 

[Tebowned]

Who's his opponent and what's his belt color? I think regardless its not about trying to prove he is better at bjj but can he survive sub attacks and scramble to his feet.

Most kick boxers have solid getups and td defense and are good athletes, the fact he is mixing grappling and developing a defense for it is gd for me.

I’m not saying to not bet him.

His opponent looks to be an average purple belt.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I’m not saying to not bet him.

His opponent looks to be an average purple belt.

agreed. 2018 he fought a guy that ended his career 1-3 , 3-2 amateur and he went to decision. Got subbed in 2016 by an average fighter. This was 4-6 year ago, but it paints a picture that his bjj game has been a slow progression. not like a bjj phenom.

 

[rev0lver]

Pogues, Nickal, and Carpenter are as close to locks as it gets here imo. Their opponents are terrible. Chairez is alright I guess but he has a huge wrestling gap with carpenter.

Anvar-Silva is def interesting. Anvar's been working on the grappling defense for a while and it's worked so far, but he hasn't really been tested. Silva's not a great wrestler though, he just has decent bjj, so I don't think it's a given that he gets Anvar down. I love Silva's standup, but does he win a straight up kickboxing match with Anvar? Not so sure about that. He's a confident, dynamic striker but he can also get hit and tends to leave his head very forward. It's gonna depend on Silva threatening takedowns and actually making Anvar respect that threat. Might just pick the dog here in the end tbh.

Expected to be on Wojcik but after tape I'm leaning Lavado. Her quality of opponents suck, but neither of them are really great. Lavado uses her length well and is decently well-rounded even if she's not exceptional anywhere. She definitely outranges here and can pick Wojcik apart from the outside. Only way I see Wojcik winning is via dominant top control, which is possible, but if Lavado doesn't get stuck there I think Lavado wins. Wojcik is good at being heavy on top, but Lavado doesn't get complacent off her back and has solid bjj.

 

[rev0lver]

Bo opened at -300? damn I would’ve emptied the tank there. Sub prop will be tempting.

Bo's looking comfortable, confident, and powerful on the feet. I don't think he even uses his wrestling here. Borrego's a sloppy striker and Bo should be able to have his way however he wants it. Gonna look for the KO line myself

 

[rev0lver]

Gonna have to do some tape on Renato. Pogues is a natural LHW, I'm not sure he should be that big a favourite over anyone at HW.

Renato was fighting at welterweight a few years ago lol. He's filled out a little but he's not a big HW. He's also pretty bad, my wikicapping was giving me red flags and the tape hasn't been much better on him.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Renato was fighting at welterweight a few years ago lol. He's filled out a little but he's not a big HW. He's also pretty bad, my wikicapping was giving me red flags and the tape hasn't been much better on him.

tbf tho he fought 3x in 2021(including thai boxing matches), Jamal hasn't fought since 2020 and he really didn't look that impressive to me. i think at the very least Jamal is instant fade.

 

[rev0lver]

tbf tho he fought 3x in 2021(including thai boxing matches), Jamal hasn't fought since 2020 and he really didn't look that impressive to me. i think at the very least Jamal is instant fade.

I get the recency thing but I still will always put skill over that. Renato's 2021 fights were 2 wins by retirement and knocking out a can. Wouldn't describe Pogues as super impressive, but he's a tough, heavy-handed guy with a well-rounded skillset. I think he's better everywhere here.

 

[Tebowned]

Bo's looking comfortable, confident, and powerful on the feet. I don't think he even uses his wrestling here. Borrego's a sloppy striker and Bo should be able to have his way however he wants it. Gonna look for the KO line myself

I'm just assuming his KO line is gonna be high since he's koed his amateur opponents but he actually has slick BJJ for a wrestler.
I can see him locking up a head and arm choke from any position.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I get the recency thing but I still will always put skill over that. Renato's 2021 fights were 2 wins by retirement and knocking out a can. Wouldn't describe Pogues as super impressive, but he's a tough, heavy-handed guy with a well-rounded skillset. I think he's better everywhere here.

stamina and conditioning is in favor of renato, Jamal looked gassy in his DWCS bout . I seen Renato go five rounds muay thai and remain a steady pace. Also striking, renato uses all his limbs, he doesn't have devastating ko , he's more of a break fighters down and wear out their joints kind of fighter.








Jamal is decent boxing and solid takedowns but he doesnt finish fights on the ground , he lays and prays when he fights decent opponents.



I cant give an accurate assessment of his bjj but he showed decent reversal and a tight guillotine choke that wrestlers sometimes fall victim to. It doesn't have enough footage to cap his bjj skills, but we can at least expect him to reverse, attack subs from the bottom and use it as a way to scramble back up to his feet.



I thought it was impressive that in his third fight he beat an 8-1 fighter to a decision, even ate a nasty head kick and didn't get wobbled.




more grappling footage

 

[rev0lver]

stamina and conditioning is in favor of renato, Jamal looked gassy in his DWCS bout . I seen Renato go five rounds muay thai and remain a steady pace. Also striking, renato uses all his limbs, he doesn't have devastating ko , he's more of a break fighters down and wear out their joints kind of fighter.








Jamal is decent boxing and solid takedowns but he doesnt finish fights on the ground , he lays and prays when he fights decent opponents.



I cant give an accurate assessment of his bjj but he showed decent reversal and a tight guillotine choke that wrestlers sometimes fall victim to. It doesn't have enough footage to cap his bjj skills, but we can at least expect him to reverse, attack subs from the bottom and use it as a way to scramble back up to his feet.



I thought it was impressive that in his third fight he beat an 8-1 fighter to a decision, even ate a nasty head kick and didn't get wobbled.




more grappling footage

He definitely got wobbled in that fight he got the guillotine though... basically was seconds from getting finished. I can't trust him against someone as heavy handed as Pogues. That 8-1 fighter you're talking about is a can crusher himself. 2 fights later, Renato went to a split with a 37 year old can. They're probably the best fighters he's ever faced.

When I see someone like this, he looks *okay* against bad competition. I don't want to claim he has absolutely no shot, but someone at this level should be mauling that competition. Pogues has proven himself against quality opponents even if he's not a worldbeater. If Renato's game is this kind of middling, pointfighting muay thai, Pogues should be able to light him up on the feet.

 

[mkess101]

Who's his opponent and what's his belt color? I think regardless its not about trying to prove he is better at bjj but can he survive sub attacks and scramble to his feet.

Most kick boxers have solid getups and td defense and are good athletes, the fact he is mixing grappling and developing a defense for it is gd for me.

I gotta tell you as someone that had some moderate success in some grappling competitions way back when, you seem to put a lot of stock in belt colors. Or at least you mention them a lot. I get that you are very much a stat guy and like measurables and that's fine, for sure it has a place in handicapping. But I'd really warn you about paying too much attention to who has what belt.

All black, brown, purple etc are NOT created equal. I rolled with brown belts (I never got past purple) with similar athleticism and size to me that I clowned. Conversely there were purple belts that hung with me fine even with me having noticeable physical advantages.

The politics of belts is unreal. Guys being given black belts on a telecast because they KO'd their opponent in a fight that had no grappling at all. Just so the school can get some airtime showing the guy getting his belt.

I'm not saying belts are meaningless, but you really can't put a ton of stock in them as far as a guy's overall grappling ability.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

I gotta tell you as someone that had some moderate success in some grappling competitions way back when, you seem to put a lot of stock in belt colors. Or at least you mention them a lot. I get that you are very much a stat guy and like measurables and that's fine, for sure it has a place in handicapping. But I'd really warn you about paying too much attention to who has what belt.

All black, brown, purple etc are NOT created equal. I rolled with brown belts (I never got past purple) with similar athleticism and size to me that I clowned. Conversely there were purple belts that hung with me fine even with me having noticeable physical advantages.

The politics of belts is unreal. Guys being given black belts on a telecast because they KO'd their opponent in a fight that had no grappling at all. Just so the school can get some airtime showing the guy getting his belt.

I'm not saying belts are meaningless, but you really can't put a ton of stock in them as far as a guy's overall grappling ability.

Agreed, only if they're competing on good level grappling circuits imo. Stuff like naga is the equivalent of golden gloves.