Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jun 13, 2019.
Algeo vs. Loughnane is a great fight
Always love when BOL sets the openers. Lowering my bet sizing for DWCS as fighters often perform differently than on tape with what's at stake.
Pickett +330 $100
Loughnane +108 $540
Goldy -190 $450
I capped these pre-odds and think most of these are way off. I'm on all dogs besides Meeks.
Now that this series is back I'm interested in betting again. I love analyzing these fights.
Surprised they're making Loughnane and Algeo fight for a contract. They're both probably UFC ready. I've been a fan of Loughnane since he was on TUF and thought he'd get signed any day for years now. Think he gets the win here.
Soriano-Pickett is a crapshoot. There's no good reason Soriano should be that heavy of a favorite.
Robbins standup is ultra sus but I think her ground game can overpower Goldy
Meeks is legit. De Castro's just powerful and tires himself out in less than one round.
Did Weaver-Shahbazyan get cancelled or are there just no odds yet?
Shah not medically cleared.
No disrespect but how do you manage to get the best possible odds on every card? I understand that there is skill in line projection, but guessing right over 90 percent of the time seems unattainable.
Those weren't the best possible odds. Loughnane opened at +150 which I got down a bit on. Goldy was at -185 for about 20 minutes or so. Same with Picket above +300.
It takes knowing when odds are released and being on the ball having your browser open to the book you expect it to be released at.
And some other things
But how can you know when the odds are released? I already have an idea on what i want to bet before they are released, but is there an app or something, so i can hit the opening lines better?
But if you have a large unit size, pounding the openers hurts you because the books are limiting them with the purpose of gauging what the public thinks the line should actually be. So you're wagering very little, returning very little, and letting the books move the lines on the cheap.
And if you have low unit size, fine, but you're pissing off all the big guys.
Plenty of value can be found away from the openers.
Having a strong grasp on public perception as well as how casual bettors, professional bettors, and sportsbooks operate is a big part of it. I always do my research pre lines so that I can be ready to make fully informed decisions when they are released, and I can usually guess what the opening line and closing lines will be. The hard part is timing the bet so that you don't fuck the line for everyone else while still being able to get your intended stake down across multiple books.
Normally I'd leave openers alone but I knew this wouldn't hold and maxed it 5 times with varying odds. BOL usually has $250 opening limits, was disappointed to see $100 on these.
It makes sense, i belong to the low unit size gang. I mainly play on Bet365, but having alot of succes so was thinking signing on to the sites which releases the lines earlier. Appreciate the help, can you expand on what twitter accounts? I have no idea on what to search as i rarely use twitter.
BestFightOdds history graphs are usually pretty accurate, but not always. Their automated odds graphing function does sometimes miss the opening lines if they move quickly. I have seen it myself many times when I chanced upon the openers seconds after they were released and then minutes later BFO showed a lower number than I actually hit as the "opener".
Gotcha. Yea, I honestly was just wondering, not calling you out. I manage to get good openers usually, but not at a bulletproof rate.
Yorgan is +675 at BOL. That's just crazy for low level HW. Meeks has been competing in MMA for less than 2 years and his base is Grecco Roman which probably doesn't translate as well as freestyle. He should still be a big favorite, but -1000 is completely nuts.
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