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Derrick Lewis vs Marcin Tybura II – Derrick Lewis KO’d Marcin Tybura way back in 2018, but now Tybura out-ranks Lewis and choked Tai Tuivasa unconscious last time out. If Tybura can avenge a loss to ‘The Black Beast’, he might just be looking at a top 5 opponent next time out… it would make it 9 wins from 11 fights, many against other ranked opposition. That said, if Lewis can make it 2-0 against the Polish heavyweight, he could make a late career surge up the ladder. Tonight, he tried to mix things up, but as always - dude is best when he puts guys on skates. What power!
NOTE: Lewis vs Jairzinho is still available as a fresh match up, but I'm bored of calling for that one.
Rodrigo Nascimento vs Michael Parkin – Nascimento’s momentum comes to a halt at the hands of Derrick Lewis, now it’s his turn to defend his ranking spot against a 3-0 UFC heavyweight in Mick Parkin. Parkin’s win over Mohammed Usman sets him out from the chasing pack, and while he’s a bit too decision heavy at this level, he’s clean, technical, and highly skilled. Can he best Rodrigo and take that spot?
Joaquin Buckley vs Gilbert Burns – Gilbert Burns is the man to shoot at when you’re trying to break into the top 5, even more so now that he’s given ground to a couple of rising prospects like Khamzat Chimaev and more recently Jack Della Maddalena. The 37 is a terror and a handful, but back-to-back losses to Belal and JDM suggest he might be wobbling enough at this stage for Buckley to aim for. But what’s more important is, I bet we get a barn burner here!
Nursulton Ruziboev vs Santiago Ponzinibbio – ‘Gente Boa’ has been losing to ranked-calibre fighters these past few years, and at 37, that’s perfectly understandable. Ponz is a seasoned veteran, a warhorse, a tough out for anyone – more to the point, he’s an ideal gatekeeper to the top 15, which is somewhere Nursulton is still striving to be despite tasting defeat tonight. Nursulton also has to prove he can win fights that go the distance, a major weakness historically, and there’s a decent chance Ponz can drag this fight into deeper waters. A great test for Nursulton, and a possible huge late-stage win for Ponz.
Carlos Ulberg vs Anthony Smith – With Johnny Walker, Volkan Oezdemir, and Khalil Rountree all booked, Ulberg’s next fight must still be a top ten opponent, and Anthony ‘Lionheart’ Smith fits the bill really well – partly because he serves to separate the decent prospects from the really good ones. Vitor Petrino wasn’t ready for Smith, but Carlos Ulberg is showing signs he is. It’s an acid test, for sure, but so is anyone in the top ten. If Ulberg wins, he’ll be looking at cracking that top 5, with guys like Jan and Rakic there to be shot at right now. But that’s a big ‘if’…
Alonzo Menifield vs Azamat Murzakanov – Azamat has not been seen since suffering pneumonia-like symptoms last December, but if he’s ready, set up this AM vs AM fight between two guys who could not be more different. Murzakanov is already 35 so is fighting against the clock right now, but his undefeated record adds a little incentive for Menifield to aim at, but Alonzo needs to perform a heck of a lot better than he did tonight – that was not good. Not good.
Diego Ferreira vs Joel Alvarez – Diego Ferreira rolled back the years tonight and at 39 years old he looked phenomenal. He took a bunch of damage in R1, but after that it was a veteran’s masterclass, and I’d like to see him take on another very talented, younger fighter in Joel Alvarez. Alvarez was supposed to face Rebecki tonight, and that would have taught us a lot about ‘El Fenomeno’, but it wasn’t to be, so this is the next best thing.
Mateusz Rebecki vs Ismael Bonfim – That was a set back for Rebecki, but it’s not like the Polish fighter looked bad early doors, but he definitely got the fight management aspect wrong. A more patient approach is needed at this level, but that’s a mistake many fighters make at one point or another. Ismael Bonfim is a high level prospect with a similarly big record and took a tough loss himself against Benoit St Denis before bouncing back against Vinc Pichel last time out. Line this one up, and let them get after it!
Sean Woodson vs Bryce Mitchell – This is the fight Woodson called for, and yeah, I like it enough. Bryce has beaten some pretty decent strikers before, including Edson Barboza and Dan Ige, so even though the Emmett annihilation will be fresh in the memory of UFC fans, this one is a lot closer than that particular fight appears. Also, after the scary sight of Bryce going into convulsions, someone with Woodson’s generic lack of power works well. I wouldn’t want to see this match before December, though, so if Woodson is prepared to sit out long enough for Bryce to get a full year’s recovery under his belt, then yeah: let’s do it!
Alex Caceres vs Damon Jackson – Caceres had already slipped out of the top 15 and tonight he slips a little further. Bruce Leeroy still looked great in R3, though, and broke out some typically varied offence befitting a tricky veteran like him, and I’d like to see him get the chance to bounce back against Damon Jackson. Jackson is another uber-veteran who can look extremely dangerous on his day, and having won 5 of his last 7, he’s up there with the top 20-25 UFC featherweights in my opinion. This could be a very fun one.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik – Despite the loss to Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Waldo Cortes-Acosta has done a couple of things well: he’s remained very active and rattled off a 5-1 UFC record while doing so – both things that deserve a ton of credit. Despite Despaigne proving to have a limited overall game, I doubt too many would have wanted to fight him, but Waldo stepped in and got the job done well enough to expose those gaps in the Cuban’s game. Give him another ranked opponent. Give him Jairzinho. Waldo’s striking isn’t as crisp as Jairzinho, but Waldo showed tonight he will find ways to win if he needs to. Let’s see if Jairzinho can rebuff the Dominican.
Robelis Despaigne vs Austen Lane – The run of ultra-fast demolition jobs had to come to an end sooner or later, but Robelis still looked genuinely dangerous on the feet, even if the blueprint is now there for how to beat him. Unfortunately for Robelis, when he did land, Waldo eat his shots really well. Give him Austen Lane next. 6’7 vs 6’6, 35 vs 36, both kinda limited at this late stage of their careers, this feels fair for both men and a good opportunity to bounce back.
Chase Hooper vs Jim Miller – Chase Hooper looked so good tonight it’s time to start taking him forward, he absolutely mauled Borshchev, and that’s three in a row against lower level opposition in the lightweight division. Rocket skates? No, not quite, but a recognisable, highly respected legend like Jim Miller? Hell, why not. Get this on the main card of a PPV event and let it be a showcase for either fighter, whoever shows out best. In terms of styles, these two match up so, so well.
Viacheslav Borshchev vs Darrius Flowers – What a nightmare for Viacheslav tonight, dropped early, and then set upon by the most ferocious version of Chase Hooper we’ve seen so far. Completely out-grappled, and left with a huge hematoma, Borshchev got set back tonight in a way not many expected. Give him 0-2 Darrius Flowers next, loser most likely gets cut.
Esteban Ribovics vs Brad Riddell – The stuff of dreams for Esteban Ribovics as he goes in against one of the fastest starters in the UFC and shuts him down with a picture perfect head kick KO! The Argentinian is an exciting fighter who caught lightning in a bottle, now the UFC need to give him a shot at building on that. Brad Riddell is on a three-fight losing streak, but he’s only lost to top level competition – on the flip side, his biggest win is still probably Drew Dober, suggesting he might be competing at too high a level. Let’s have a bit of an elevator’s-type fight, as Ribovics star rises and Riddell seeks to stop his own falling too far in a helluva fight!
Terrance McKinney vs Nikolas Motta – Terrance McKinney cannot seem to get the momentum going at the minute, and this scintillating head kick KO defeat sets him back once more. I’d like to see McKinney face someone like Nikolas Motta next, a 2-2 Brazilian who is as kill-or-be-killed as Terrance, and hasn’t gone the distance in any of his 5 UFC outings (including the No Contest against Trey Ogden). Someone’s gonna rise from the chaos smelling of roses, but the heck if I know who! Let’s go to war!
Tabatha Ricci vs Marina Rodriguez – Tabatha Ricci squeaks past the returning Tecia Pennington to defend her #11 ranking. Ricci previously lost to Loopy Godinez by that same margin, and Godinez in turn lost to #5 Virna Jandiroba. I think it’s hard to make a case for Ricci to fight too far up the rankings, but she probably matches up pretty well with fellow Brazilian Marina Rodriguez, who has lost 3 of her last 4 and is currently ranked #6. Rodriguez at one point was one of the top contenders in the division, but she’s just starting to slip a little and at 37 years of age, that downward trajectory might now be permanent. Ricci is a popular fighter and a specialist – I think she makes sense for the UFC to try and push forward a bit, but will Rodriguez simply out-gun her? Let’s find out!
Tecia Pennington vs Iasmin Lucindo – You have to feel for Tecia, as her return to action sees her drop a second straight split decision win in another razor close fight. Tecia has great defence but can struggle to land with any real power, and it seems to have cost her a fair few times in her career. Give her #13 Iasmin Lucindo next, the surging youngster who just beat Karolina Kowalkiewicz and would benefit from adding another time-tested veteran on her résumé, if she can get past Tecia.
Trey Waters vs Matthew Semelsberger – Trey Waters showed a serious lack of defence at times tonight, but ate most of Goff’s shots well (the body work seemed to hurt though…), and his boxing remained crisp and accurate even when he was exhausted. Give him Semelsberger. Semi The Jedi is now 5-5 in the UFC and has lost his last 3 – he’s the sort of opponent Waters needs as he tries to gain experience and work on some of the defensive holes in his game. Semelsberger can turn your lights out, so Trey will have to mind his P’s and Q’s.
Billy Goff vs Rhys McKee – Goff lost an entertaining bout tonight and probably got a little unlucky on the scorecards to boot. His high pressure approach did see him getting sniped quite a bit, but he definitely got his licks in. I’d like to see him face 0-4 Rhys McKee who is in his second UFC stint and simply can’t afford to lose any more fights. McKee has had a very tough run of opponents, though, and probably needs a step down in competition. If he can’t hang with Goff’s forward march, he simply won’t belong in the UFC.
Charles Johnson vs Allan Nascimento – I personally don’t see a ranked opponent for Charles Johnson next, but that doesn’t mean he should take a step back. Allan Nascimento is as good as they come when discussing unranked UFC flyweights, and the winner here would be undeniable for a shot at a top 15 fighter. That said, either could face someone like David Dvorak who looks like little more than a placeholder at this point. Note: Both guys beat Hadley.
Jake Hadley vs Alessandro Costa – There’s no question that Jake Hadley has had a disappointing run in the UFC to date. He’s not a bad fighter by any means, but he’s outside the top 25 at this moment in time, and it’s a bit of a thin division… he will need to start recording wins fast if he’s going to hang around. Giving him 2-2 Alessandro Costa gives him a very respectable, dangerous opponent, so nothing too insulting, but Hadley simply must show out here or he’ll be on the chopping block after 3 straight losses.
Veronica Hardy vs Casey O’Neill – There has been a bit of bad blood between these two fighters in the past with words exchanged, and with both fighters having links to the UK, the UFC could do worse than try to put this on UFC 304 time permitting – but with a ranking spot at stake, they could host anywhere. Hardy has won 3 straight since a 3 year absence, while O’Neill has slipped to a 2-fight skid. O’Neill will defend that #14 spot.
JJ Aldrich vs Luana Carolina – Two flyweights with overall winning records in the UFC, both Aldrich and Carolina have consistently hit a ceiling whenever they’ve approached the conversation for the top 15. Aldrich just seems to lack the all-out offence, while Carolina suffered meme defeats to Molly McCann and Ariane da Silva (Lipski). Can either fighter progress beyond this point?
NOTE: Lewis vs Jairzinho is still available as a fresh match up, but I'm bored of calling for that one.
Rodrigo Nascimento vs Michael Parkin – Nascimento’s momentum comes to a halt at the hands of Derrick Lewis, now it’s his turn to defend his ranking spot against a 3-0 UFC heavyweight in Mick Parkin. Parkin’s win over Mohammed Usman sets him out from the chasing pack, and while he’s a bit too decision heavy at this level, he’s clean, technical, and highly skilled. Can he best Rodrigo and take that spot?
Joaquin Buckley vs Gilbert Burns – Gilbert Burns is the man to shoot at when you’re trying to break into the top 5, even more so now that he’s given ground to a couple of rising prospects like Khamzat Chimaev and more recently Jack Della Maddalena. The 37 is a terror and a handful, but back-to-back losses to Belal and JDM suggest he might be wobbling enough at this stage for Buckley to aim for. But what’s more important is, I bet we get a barn burner here!
Nursulton Ruziboev vs Santiago Ponzinibbio – ‘Gente Boa’ has been losing to ranked-calibre fighters these past few years, and at 37, that’s perfectly understandable. Ponz is a seasoned veteran, a warhorse, a tough out for anyone – more to the point, he’s an ideal gatekeeper to the top 15, which is somewhere Nursulton is still striving to be despite tasting defeat tonight. Nursulton also has to prove he can win fights that go the distance, a major weakness historically, and there’s a decent chance Ponz can drag this fight into deeper waters. A great test for Nursulton, and a possible huge late-stage win for Ponz.
Carlos Ulberg vs Anthony Smith – With Johnny Walker, Volkan Oezdemir, and Khalil Rountree all booked, Ulberg’s next fight must still be a top ten opponent, and Anthony ‘Lionheart’ Smith fits the bill really well – partly because he serves to separate the decent prospects from the really good ones. Vitor Petrino wasn’t ready for Smith, but Carlos Ulberg is showing signs he is. It’s an acid test, for sure, but so is anyone in the top ten. If Ulberg wins, he’ll be looking at cracking that top 5, with guys like Jan and Rakic there to be shot at right now. But that’s a big ‘if’…
Alonzo Menifield vs Azamat Murzakanov – Azamat has not been seen since suffering pneumonia-like symptoms last December, but if he’s ready, set up this AM vs AM fight between two guys who could not be more different. Murzakanov is already 35 so is fighting against the clock right now, but his undefeated record adds a little incentive for Menifield to aim at, but Alonzo needs to perform a heck of a lot better than he did tonight – that was not good. Not good.
Diego Ferreira vs Joel Alvarez – Diego Ferreira rolled back the years tonight and at 39 years old he looked phenomenal. He took a bunch of damage in R1, but after that it was a veteran’s masterclass, and I’d like to see him take on another very talented, younger fighter in Joel Alvarez. Alvarez was supposed to face Rebecki tonight, and that would have taught us a lot about ‘El Fenomeno’, but it wasn’t to be, so this is the next best thing.
Mateusz Rebecki vs Ismael Bonfim – That was a set back for Rebecki, but it’s not like the Polish fighter looked bad early doors, but he definitely got the fight management aspect wrong. A more patient approach is needed at this level, but that’s a mistake many fighters make at one point or another. Ismael Bonfim is a high level prospect with a similarly big record and took a tough loss himself against Benoit St Denis before bouncing back against Vinc Pichel last time out. Line this one up, and let them get after it!
Sean Woodson vs Bryce Mitchell – This is the fight Woodson called for, and yeah, I like it enough. Bryce has beaten some pretty decent strikers before, including Edson Barboza and Dan Ige, so even though the Emmett annihilation will be fresh in the memory of UFC fans, this one is a lot closer than that particular fight appears. Also, after the scary sight of Bryce going into convulsions, someone with Woodson’s generic lack of power works well. I wouldn’t want to see this match before December, though, so if Woodson is prepared to sit out long enough for Bryce to get a full year’s recovery under his belt, then yeah: let’s do it!
Alex Caceres vs Damon Jackson – Caceres had already slipped out of the top 15 and tonight he slips a little further. Bruce Leeroy still looked great in R3, though, and broke out some typically varied offence befitting a tricky veteran like him, and I’d like to see him get the chance to bounce back against Damon Jackson. Jackson is another uber-veteran who can look extremely dangerous on his day, and having won 5 of his last 7, he’s up there with the top 20-25 UFC featherweights in my opinion. This could be a very fun one.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik – Despite the loss to Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Waldo Cortes-Acosta has done a couple of things well: he’s remained very active and rattled off a 5-1 UFC record while doing so – both things that deserve a ton of credit. Despite Despaigne proving to have a limited overall game, I doubt too many would have wanted to fight him, but Waldo stepped in and got the job done well enough to expose those gaps in the Cuban’s game. Give him another ranked opponent. Give him Jairzinho. Waldo’s striking isn’t as crisp as Jairzinho, but Waldo showed tonight he will find ways to win if he needs to. Let’s see if Jairzinho can rebuff the Dominican.
Robelis Despaigne vs Austen Lane – The run of ultra-fast demolition jobs had to come to an end sooner or later, but Robelis still looked genuinely dangerous on the feet, even if the blueprint is now there for how to beat him. Unfortunately for Robelis, when he did land, Waldo eat his shots really well. Give him Austen Lane next. 6’7 vs 6’6, 35 vs 36, both kinda limited at this late stage of their careers, this feels fair for both men and a good opportunity to bounce back.
Chase Hooper vs Jim Miller – Chase Hooper looked so good tonight it’s time to start taking him forward, he absolutely mauled Borshchev, and that’s three in a row against lower level opposition in the lightweight division. Rocket skates? No, not quite, but a recognisable, highly respected legend like Jim Miller? Hell, why not. Get this on the main card of a PPV event and let it be a showcase for either fighter, whoever shows out best. In terms of styles, these two match up so, so well.
Viacheslav Borshchev vs Darrius Flowers – What a nightmare for Viacheslav tonight, dropped early, and then set upon by the most ferocious version of Chase Hooper we’ve seen so far. Completely out-grappled, and left with a huge hematoma, Borshchev got set back tonight in a way not many expected. Give him 0-2 Darrius Flowers next, loser most likely gets cut.
Esteban Ribovics vs Brad Riddell – The stuff of dreams for Esteban Ribovics as he goes in against one of the fastest starters in the UFC and shuts him down with a picture perfect head kick KO! The Argentinian is an exciting fighter who caught lightning in a bottle, now the UFC need to give him a shot at building on that. Brad Riddell is on a three-fight losing streak, but he’s only lost to top level competition – on the flip side, his biggest win is still probably Drew Dober, suggesting he might be competing at too high a level. Let’s have a bit of an elevator’s-type fight, as Ribovics star rises and Riddell seeks to stop his own falling too far in a helluva fight!
Terrance McKinney vs Nikolas Motta – Terrance McKinney cannot seem to get the momentum going at the minute, and this scintillating head kick KO defeat sets him back once more. I’d like to see McKinney face someone like Nikolas Motta next, a 2-2 Brazilian who is as kill-or-be-killed as Terrance, and hasn’t gone the distance in any of his 5 UFC outings (including the No Contest against Trey Ogden). Someone’s gonna rise from the chaos smelling of roses, but the heck if I know who! Let’s go to war!
Tabatha Ricci vs Marina Rodriguez – Tabatha Ricci squeaks past the returning Tecia Pennington to defend her #11 ranking. Ricci previously lost to Loopy Godinez by that same margin, and Godinez in turn lost to #5 Virna Jandiroba. I think it’s hard to make a case for Ricci to fight too far up the rankings, but she probably matches up pretty well with fellow Brazilian Marina Rodriguez, who has lost 3 of her last 4 and is currently ranked #6. Rodriguez at one point was one of the top contenders in the division, but she’s just starting to slip a little and at 37 years of age, that downward trajectory might now be permanent. Ricci is a popular fighter and a specialist – I think she makes sense for the UFC to try and push forward a bit, but will Rodriguez simply out-gun her? Let’s find out!
Tecia Pennington vs Iasmin Lucindo – You have to feel for Tecia, as her return to action sees her drop a second straight split decision win in another razor close fight. Tecia has great defence but can struggle to land with any real power, and it seems to have cost her a fair few times in her career. Give her #13 Iasmin Lucindo next, the surging youngster who just beat Karolina Kowalkiewicz and would benefit from adding another time-tested veteran on her résumé, if she can get past Tecia.
Trey Waters vs Matthew Semelsberger – Trey Waters showed a serious lack of defence at times tonight, but ate most of Goff’s shots well (the body work seemed to hurt though…), and his boxing remained crisp and accurate even when he was exhausted. Give him Semelsberger. Semi The Jedi is now 5-5 in the UFC and has lost his last 3 – he’s the sort of opponent Waters needs as he tries to gain experience and work on some of the defensive holes in his game. Semelsberger can turn your lights out, so Trey will have to mind his P’s and Q’s.
Billy Goff vs Rhys McKee – Goff lost an entertaining bout tonight and probably got a little unlucky on the scorecards to boot. His high pressure approach did see him getting sniped quite a bit, but he definitely got his licks in. I’d like to see him face 0-4 Rhys McKee who is in his second UFC stint and simply can’t afford to lose any more fights. McKee has had a very tough run of opponents, though, and probably needs a step down in competition. If he can’t hang with Goff’s forward march, he simply won’t belong in the UFC.
Charles Johnson vs Allan Nascimento – I personally don’t see a ranked opponent for Charles Johnson next, but that doesn’t mean he should take a step back. Allan Nascimento is as good as they come when discussing unranked UFC flyweights, and the winner here would be undeniable for a shot at a top 15 fighter. That said, either could face someone like David Dvorak who looks like little more than a placeholder at this point. Note: Both guys beat Hadley.
Jake Hadley vs Alessandro Costa – There’s no question that Jake Hadley has had a disappointing run in the UFC to date. He’s not a bad fighter by any means, but he’s outside the top 25 at this moment in time, and it’s a bit of a thin division… he will need to start recording wins fast if he’s going to hang around. Giving him 2-2 Alessandro Costa gives him a very respectable, dangerous opponent, so nothing too insulting, but Hadley simply must show out here or he’ll be on the chopping block after 3 straight losses.
Veronica Hardy vs Casey O’Neill – There has been a bit of bad blood between these two fighters in the past with words exchanged, and with both fighters having links to the UK, the UFC could do worse than try to put this on UFC 304 time permitting – but with a ranking spot at stake, they could host anywhere. Hardy has won 3 straight since a 3 year absence, while O’Neill has slipped to a 2-fight skid. O’Neill will defend that #14 spot.
JJ Aldrich vs Luana Carolina – Two flyweights with overall winning records in the UFC, both Aldrich and Carolina have consistently hit a ceiling whenever they’ve approached the conversation for the top 15. Aldrich just seems to lack the all-out offence, while Carolina suffered meme defeats to Molly McCann and Ariane da Silva (Lipski). Can either fighter progress beyond this point?
