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Alex Perez vs Brandon Moreno – These two were supposed to meet way back in 2020, but the fight got rebooked and Perez has lost 3 straight since before snapping that skid tonight. Perez looked really sharp, and knocked Nicolau out COLD. His reward should be a fight against someone like Moreno, who is himself on a 2-fight skid. That’s what happens when you fight the elite constantly. May the best man win, this should be fire as long as it lasts.
Matheus Nicolau vs Muhammad Mokaev – I know, I know, Mokaev beat Nicolau but this division is moving at speed now and I really would like to see how Mokaev deals with Nicolau’s grappling. Mokaev can be pretty one-dimensional at times, and Nicolau is a slow and patient dude, but a hell of a Jiu Jitsu practitioner. It’s the right test for Mokaev, who is stuck with Albazi ahead of him right now in my estimations.
Bogdan Guskov vs Azamat Murzakanov – Bogdan Guskov skips the queue by unleashing brutal ground ‘n’ pound on Ryan Spann, knocking him out clean. At only 2-1 in the UFC, that’s a mightily impressive feat, but I can’t help but feel Bogdan still has to earn his spot above someone like Azamat Murzakanov who is 3-0 in the UFC. The beauty of this is they can run it pretty much anywhere in the world.
Ryan Spann vs Philipe Lins – Lins has entered free agency and may thus leave the UFC, but until that’s confirmed, the Brazilian is on a 4-fight win streak is my choice to face Ryan Spann next. Spann has dropped 3 in a row, and this is very much an ‘elevators’ type fight where Spann either proves he belongs, or potentially washes out of the UFC altogether.
Karine Silva vs Katlyn Cerminara – Karine Silva comes through a very tough test against Ariane da Silva and passes the questions about going a full 15 minutes with flying colours. I’d like to see her jump the queue a little bit and face Katlyn Cerminara, who has lost 2 in a row to Manon Fiorot and Maycee Barber, and the door looks to opening just a little bit behind one of the toughest gatekeepers in any division. Can Silva roll on?
Ariane da Silva vs Miranda Maverick – Painful one for Ariane da Silva (nee Lipski) who really didn’t make too many huge mistakes but was ultimately out-wrestled and controlled for extended periods. Ariane is one of the most entertaining fighters at flyweight, and I’d like to see her test #15 Miranda Maverick next. Maverick has won 4 of her last 5 and finally dislodged Andrea Lee from the rankings last time out.
Jhonata Diniz vs Lukasz Brzeski – After Lukasz beat Valter Walker on his UFC debut, I’d like to see him get the chance to snatch another 0 against kickboxer Jhonata Diniz who endured a miserable first round to come back with much improved TDD and just lit Austen Lane up on the feet. At times he couldn’t miss. It was still a hit-and-miss type of performance, though, so let’s not get silly. 1-3 Brzeski is a serious test for Diniz on tonight’s showing.
Austen Lane vs Hamdy Abdelwahab – Hamdy will return from a 2-year drug suspension in July, the 5-0 fighter looking pretty ordinary in a now-overturned split decision win over Don’Tale Mayes in his UFC debut, let’s see if he’s improved at all by putting him against 0-2 Austen Lane. Looks like the right fight for his return, and Lane probably pretty happy not to fight a striker.
David Onama vs Julio Arce – Both fighters won last time out while missing weight, which is a bit embarrassing for veterans of their calibre. Arce has been trading wins and losses lately, and sits as a middle-of-the-pack featherweight, and he needs to start stringing wins together sooner rather than later. For Onama, that’s two in a row, easily the most important win of his career, I want to see him build on that and make weight next time.
Jonathan Pearce vs Gavin Tucker – Tough defeat for JSP who is on a two-fight skid, much like Gavin Tucker who has lost back-to-back efforts against Dan Ige and Diego Lopes. Both are losing to very credible opposition, and have their share of decent wins, but they both badly need to turn things round. Tucker, at 37, is under more pressure than JSP, but Pearce can’t afford another loss by any means either.
Uros Medic vs Chidi Njokuani – Uros Medic shut Tim Means down with a vicious uppercut, and even at this stage that’s not an easy thing to do. Medic has shown he’s a dangerous striker that can be blown away by powerful and well-rounded athletes, but not so much heavy hitters since both losses have come by way of submission. Can Chidi Njokuani light Uros Medic up, or does Medic continue to grow and build on the biggest win of his career? Njokuani is susceptible to getting TKO’d… looks like the right question to ask!
Tim Means vs Sam Patterson – While Tim Means stepping down or getting cut would not be a surprise after going 1-4, the Dirty Bird is a legend at 40 and finished Andre Fialho the previous time out. I’d give him one more assignment, against another lanky welterweight in Sam Patterson, who looked really sharp last time out when he beat down Yohan Lainesse.
Victor Henry vs Cody Garbrandt – They stepped Cody down and he picked up a couple of wins over Trevin Jones and Brian Kelleher and looked sharp doing so but step him back up to the ranked opposition and he’s just not there. Deiveson Figueiredo crushed Cody at UFC 300, and Cody once again needs a change of pace in the new unranked reality he faces. He’s about as high as Victor Henry can shoot at without breaching the top 15, and at the same time he's just not quite put together the type of run to justify someone like #14 Pedro Munhoz or #11 Dom Cruz, even though both fights would be awesome and super competitive. Henry is 36 now and needs a fight like this to justify a top 15 opponent, put it on a numbered event, let’s have some fun between two gunslingers!
Rani Yahya vs Rinya Nakamura – All right, so if Rani wants to fight on, absolutely let him, but just know it’s not going to happen soon and it might not happen in 2024. With that in mind, give him the Japanese freestyle wrestler Rinya Nakamura, a guy who has the tools to keep Yahya standing and put on a clinic, but he’s also going to be facing one of the wiliest Jiu Jitsu players still in the sport and could get caught at any time. Experience can make all the difference. Hopefully by the time such a fight rolled round, Rinya would be 10-0 maybe and ready for that next step. So yeah, file this under ‘speculative, but fun’ as it’s not exactly gonna happen next month.
Austin Hubbard vs Steve Garcia – Garcia has some real forward momentum with 3 straight TKO finishes, but none of them have any real name value. Austin Hubbard may have an overall negative UFC record, but tonight’s win and his TUF performance make him a little more relevant than dudes like Shayilan and Melqy. I think Garcia can cut Hubbard down, too, but Hubbard is double tough and often goes to a decision. Garcia hasn’t won a decision since 2018. Set it up, and push the winner a little further.
Michal Figlak vs Evan Elder – It’s time to step Figlak down from crafty veterans even if some of us scored that fight for him – the bottom line is it was just too close to call at times. Figlak does belong on the UFC roster, but he’s now 0-2 as a result of trying to push him too fast. Give him Evan Elder, coming off a win over Genaro Valdez, but who is 1-2 in the UFC overall. Figlak should be able to execute the blueprint for beating Elder, but in doing so he needs to look impressive.
Don’Tale Mayes vs Justin Tafa – A pair of 4-4 heavyweights who are struggling for momentum but can definitely crack, Mayes vs Tafa will be another fun one between two bruisers. Tafa needs to start living up to his potential, as none of his 4 wins are anything to write home about, and Mayes would definitely be the biggest, toughest opponent on his résumé. He still belongs at this level, however.
Caio Machado vs Valter Walker – Caio Machado is now 0-2 in the UFC without being embarrassed in either fight. Valter Walker was perceived as a letdown in his debut if only because of his shiny 11-0 record, but this is a much more level playing field for both. May the best man win and get on the board.
Ketlen Souza vs Elise Reed – Elise Reed feasts on undercooked strawweight prospects, and has accounted for Cory McKenna, Melly Martinez as well as veteran Jinh Yu Frey, but still holds a negative 3-4 UFC record. She’s a great test for Ketlen now that Souza has her first UFC win in the bag. Feels like an appropriate test for the Brazilian, and I think she might just pass it.
Marnic Mann vs Shauna Bannon – I’ll be honest, I don’t see Mann as UFC level, and not only is she showing that by being 0-2 in the promotion proper, she’s also 0-1 on DWCS. It’s just not there for her, and the size thing doesn’t help either. She’s gritty, though, and tough, and we know she’ll get another chance, the question is, who else doesn’t really look ready? Shauna Bannon is the one for me, 5-1 (0-1 UFC), not convincing at all in her UFC debut, and get this: both have lost to Bruna Brasil.
Chris Padilla vs Melquizael Costa – Padilla produces a significant upset in his UFC debut, using his veteran toughness to endure Llontop’s kicking game, and baiting him time and again into short-lived grappling exchanges. The winning sequence was also quick: Padilla putting the squeeze on Llontop with a sharp RNC, now lets see how he looks second time out! I say give him Melqy Costa, 1-2 in the UFC, a Brazilian veteran who is pretty well-rounded but happened to lose his debut by RNC (to Thiago Moises, mind). Two dangerous veterans, put it on UFC Noche!
James Llontop vs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady – James Llontop’s UFC debut saw him choked out in the very first round by the unfancied, unheralded Chris Padilla after missing weight. That’s pretty disastrous for the Peruvian. Give him Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady and make him travel to one of the Abu Dhabi shows so he understands he’s in the big league and he needs to start shaping up or he’ll be shipping out. That narrative aside, it’s likely a pretty damn good fight and a great opportunity for one of these experienced killers to get a meaningful first win in the UFC. And yes, I’m aware Abdul Kareem is now based in Texas, but no doubt who the Abu Dhabi crowd would back here.
Ivana Petrovic vs Victoria Leonardo – An opportunity, perhaps, for Petrovic to bump off a second UFC flyweight as Victoria Leonardo likely fights for her job with a 1-3 record. One thing Leonardo will test, though, is just how good Petrovic’s top game is, given she hasn’t been submitted since way back in 2018 when Miranda Maverick beat her in Invicta. Leonardo is more susceptible to being TKO’d, but is that something Petrovic can do at this level? Is she well-rounded enough to beat on a reasonably strong grappler?
NOTE: I like the idea of keeping Ivana away fellow rookies like Bleda and Horth as there are plenty of other options.
Na Liang – CUT! Mercifully, perhaps, it’s all over for Na Liang. 0-4 in the UFC, all finishes, it was a minor miracle she get a fourth shot in the big leagues, but enough is enough. Na Liang is not good enough.
Maheshate Hayisaer vs Natan Levy – Two Contender Series alumni who have reached 2-2 in the UFC via completely separate routes, Maheshate and Levy are two different types of fighters who might just produce a little bit of that magical chaos in the Octagon. Levy loves his kicks from range, Maheshate is more of a boxer, while Natan also enjoys a bit of grappling and has a few submissions on his record. A ‘styles make fights’ option for the UFC in a low level lightweight clash.
Gabriel Benitez – CUT! 2-6 in his last 8, 1-4 in his last 5, these are horrible stats. When you factor in Mowgli’s wins in that period are over the long-forgotten Justin Jaynes and Charlie Ontiveros, and he’ll probably follow the pair out the UFC’s revolving door.
Matheus Nicolau vs Muhammad Mokaev – I know, I know, Mokaev beat Nicolau but this division is moving at speed now and I really would like to see how Mokaev deals with Nicolau’s grappling. Mokaev can be pretty one-dimensional at times, and Nicolau is a slow and patient dude, but a hell of a Jiu Jitsu practitioner. It’s the right test for Mokaev, who is stuck with Albazi ahead of him right now in my estimations.
Bogdan Guskov vs Azamat Murzakanov – Bogdan Guskov skips the queue by unleashing brutal ground ‘n’ pound on Ryan Spann, knocking him out clean. At only 2-1 in the UFC, that’s a mightily impressive feat, but I can’t help but feel Bogdan still has to earn his spot above someone like Azamat Murzakanov who is 3-0 in the UFC. The beauty of this is they can run it pretty much anywhere in the world.
Ryan Spann vs Philipe Lins – Lins has entered free agency and may thus leave the UFC, but until that’s confirmed, the Brazilian is on a 4-fight win streak is my choice to face Ryan Spann next. Spann has dropped 3 in a row, and this is very much an ‘elevators’ type fight where Spann either proves he belongs, or potentially washes out of the UFC altogether.
Karine Silva vs Katlyn Cerminara – Karine Silva comes through a very tough test against Ariane da Silva and passes the questions about going a full 15 minutes with flying colours. I’d like to see her jump the queue a little bit and face Katlyn Cerminara, who has lost 2 in a row to Manon Fiorot and Maycee Barber, and the door looks to opening just a little bit behind one of the toughest gatekeepers in any division. Can Silva roll on?
Ariane da Silva vs Miranda Maverick – Painful one for Ariane da Silva (nee Lipski) who really didn’t make too many huge mistakes but was ultimately out-wrestled and controlled for extended periods. Ariane is one of the most entertaining fighters at flyweight, and I’d like to see her test #15 Miranda Maverick next. Maverick has won 4 of her last 5 and finally dislodged Andrea Lee from the rankings last time out.
Jhonata Diniz vs Lukasz Brzeski – After Lukasz beat Valter Walker on his UFC debut, I’d like to see him get the chance to snatch another 0 against kickboxer Jhonata Diniz who endured a miserable first round to come back with much improved TDD and just lit Austen Lane up on the feet. At times he couldn’t miss. It was still a hit-and-miss type of performance, though, so let’s not get silly. 1-3 Brzeski is a serious test for Diniz on tonight’s showing.
Austen Lane vs Hamdy Abdelwahab – Hamdy will return from a 2-year drug suspension in July, the 5-0 fighter looking pretty ordinary in a now-overturned split decision win over Don’Tale Mayes in his UFC debut, let’s see if he’s improved at all by putting him against 0-2 Austen Lane. Looks like the right fight for his return, and Lane probably pretty happy not to fight a striker.
David Onama vs Julio Arce – Both fighters won last time out while missing weight, which is a bit embarrassing for veterans of their calibre. Arce has been trading wins and losses lately, and sits as a middle-of-the-pack featherweight, and he needs to start stringing wins together sooner rather than later. For Onama, that’s two in a row, easily the most important win of his career, I want to see him build on that and make weight next time.
Jonathan Pearce vs Gavin Tucker – Tough defeat for JSP who is on a two-fight skid, much like Gavin Tucker who has lost back-to-back efforts against Dan Ige and Diego Lopes. Both are losing to very credible opposition, and have their share of decent wins, but they both badly need to turn things round. Tucker, at 37, is under more pressure than JSP, but Pearce can’t afford another loss by any means either.
Uros Medic vs Chidi Njokuani – Uros Medic shut Tim Means down with a vicious uppercut, and even at this stage that’s not an easy thing to do. Medic has shown he’s a dangerous striker that can be blown away by powerful and well-rounded athletes, but not so much heavy hitters since both losses have come by way of submission. Can Chidi Njokuani light Uros Medic up, or does Medic continue to grow and build on the biggest win of his career? Njokuani is susceptible to getting TKO’d… looks like the right question to ask!
Tim Means vs Sam Patterson – While Tim Means stepping down or getting cut would not be a surprise after going 1-4, the Dirty Bird is a legend at 40 and finished Andre Fialho the previous time out. I’d give him one more assignment, against another lanky welterweight in Sam Patterson, who looked really sharp last time out when he beat down Yohan Lainesse.
Victor Henry vs Cody Garbrandt – They stepped Cody down and he picked up a couple of wins over Trevin Jones and Brian Kelleher and looked sharp doing so but step him back up to the ranked opposition and he’s just not there. Deiveson Figueiredo crushed Cody at UFC 300, and Cody once again needs a change of pace in the new unranked reality he faces. He’s about as high as Victor Henry can shoot at without breaching the top 15, and at the same time he's just not quite put together the type of run to justify someone like #14 Pedro Munhoz or #11 Dom Cruz, even though both fights would be awesome and super competitive. Henry is 36 now and needs a fight like this to justify a top 15 opponent, put it on a numbered event, let’s have some fun between two gunslingers!
Rani Yahya vs Rinya Nakamura – All right, so if Rani wants to fight on, absolutely let him, but just know it’s not going to happen soon and it might not happen in 2024. With that in mind, give him the Japanese freestyle wrestler Rinya Nakamura, a guy who has the tools to keep Yahya standing and put on a clinic, but he’s also going to be facing one of the wiliest Jiu Jitsu players still in the sport and could get caught at any time. Experience can make all the difference. Hopefully by the time such a fight rolled round, Rinya would be 10-0 maybe and ready for that next step. So yeah, file this under ‘speculative, but fun’ as it’s not exactly gonna happen next month.
Austin Hubbard vs Steve Garcia – Garcia has some real forward momentum with 3 straight TKO finishes, but none of them have any real name value. Austin Hubbard may have an overall negative UFC record, but tonight’s win and his TUF performance make him a little more relevant than dudes like Shayilan and Melqy. I think Garcia can cut Hubbard down, too, but Hubbard is double tough and often goes to a decision. Garcia hasn’t won a decision since 2018. Set it up, and push the winner a little further.
Michal Figlak vs Evan Elder – It’s time to step Figlak down from crafty veterans even if some of us scored that fight for him – the bottom line is it was just too close to call at times. Figlak does belong on the UFC roster, but he’s now 0-2 as a result of trying to push him too fast. Give him Evan Elder, coming off a win over Genaro Valdez, but who is 1-2 in the UFC overall. Figlak should be able to execute the blueprint for beating Elder, but in doing so he needs to look impressive.
Don’Tale Mayes vs Justin Tafa – A pair of 4-4 heavyweights who are struggling for momentum but can definitely crack, Mayes vs Tafa will be another fun one between two bruisers. Tafa needs to start living up to his potential, as none of his 4 wins are anything to write home about, and Mayes would definitely be the biggest, toughest opponent on his résumé. He still belongs at this level, however.
Caio Machado vs Valter Walker – Caio Machado is now 0-2 in the UFC without being embarrassed in either fight. Valter Walker was perceived as a letdown in his debut if only because of his shiny 11-0 record, but this is a much more level playing field for both. May the best man win and get on the board.
Ketlen Souza vs Elise Reed – Elise Reed feasts on undercooked strawweight prospects, and has accounted for Cory McKenna, Melly Martinez as well as veteran Jinh Yu Frey, but still holds a negative 3-4 UFC record. She’s a great test for Ketlen now that Souza has her first UFC win in the bag. Feels like an appropriate test for the Brazilian, and I think she might just pass it.
Marnic Mann vs Shauna Bannon – I’ll be honest, I don’t see Mann as UFC level, and not only is she showing that by being 0-2 in the promotion proper, she’s also 0-1 on DWCS. It’s just not there for her, and the size thing doesn’t help either. She’s gritty, though, and tough, and we know she’ll get another chance, the question is, who else doesn’t really look ready? Shauna Bannon is the one for me, 5-1 (0-1 UFC), not convincing at all in her UFC debut, and get this: both have lost to Bruna Brasil.
Chris Padilla vs Melquizael Costa – Padilla produces a significant upset in his UFC debut, using his veteran toughness to endure Llontop’s kicking game, and baiting him time and again into short-lived grappling exchanges. The winning sequence was also quick: Padilla putting the squeeze on Llontop with a sharp RNC, now lets see how he looks second time out! I say give him Melqy Costa, 1-2 in the UFC, a Brazilian veteran who is pretty well-rounded but happened to lose his debut by RNC (to Thiago Moises, mind). Two dangerous veterans, put it on UFC Noche!
James Llontop vs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady – James Llontop’s UFC debut saw him choked out in the very first round by the unfancied, unheralded Chris Padilla after missing weight. That’s pretty disastrous for the Peruvian. Give him Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady and make him travel to one of the Abu Dhabi shows so he understands he’s in the big league and he needs to start shaping up or he’ll be shipping out. That narrative aside, it’s likely a pretty damn good fight and a great opportunity for one of these experienced killers to get a meaningful first win in the UFC. And yes, I’m aware Abdul Kareem is now based in Texas, but no doubt who the Abu Dhabi crowd would back here.
Ivana Petrovic vs Victoria Leonardo – An opportunity, perhaps, for Petrovic to bump off a second UFC flyweight as Victoria Leonardo likely fights for her job with a 1-3 record. One thing Leonardo will test, though, is just how good Petrovic’s top game is, given she hasn’t been submitted since way back in 2018 when Miranda Maverick beat her in Invicta. Leonardo is more susceptible to being TKO’d, but is that something Petrovic can do at this level? Is she well-rounded enough to beat on a reasonably strong grappler?
NOTE: I like the idea of keeping Ivana away fellow rookies like Bleda and Horth as there are plenty of other options.
Na Liang – CUT! Mercifully, perhaps, it’s all over for Na Liang. 0-4 in the UFC, all finishes, it was a minor miracle she get a fourth shot in the big leagues, but enough is enough. Na Liang is not good enough.
Maheshate Hayisaer vs Natan Levy – Two Contender Series alumni who have reached 2-2 in the UFC via completely separate routes, Maheshate and Levy are two different types of fighters who might just produce a little bit of that magical chaos in the Octagon. Levy loves his kicks from range, Maheshate is more of a boxer, while Natan also enjoys a bit of grappling and has a few submissions on his record. A ‘styles make fights’ option for the UFC in a low level lightweight clash.
Gabriel Benitez – CUT! 2-6 in his last 8, 1-4 in his last 5, these are horrible stats. When you factor in Mowgli’s wins in that period are over the long-forgotten Justin Jaynes and Charlie Ontiveros, and he’ll probably follow the pair out the UFC’s revolving door.
