Fury FC, MMA, Texas, betting thread

what do we like here boys?

Taped a bunch so far only considering Jacob Silva although he seems beyond washed
 
BigSteve said:
what do we like here boys?

Taped a bunch so far only considering Jacob Silva although he seems beyond washed
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No clue! I don't know any of these fighters. Fury is appealing being on a Sunday though! It seems like there may be value to be found in it like bkfc.
 
JC615 said:
No clue! I don't know any of these fighters. Fury is appealing being on a Sunday though! It seems like there may be value to be found in it like bkfc.
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i ended up passing on Jacob who killed it. Played these 2 dogs though.
Screen_Shot_2023-06-25_at_5.png
 
I can see Rojo pulling off the upset. But his chin and sub defense is a problem. Rojo is the better boxer of the two, he has fought better but lost some of those.

Malke has no ko power in his hands. he’s got solid thai kicks which is his strongest skill and near solid bjj but no decent wrestling to compliment his bjj. But Rojo being flakey who knows.

Dog or pass but i would not touch an aging Rojo at 35 with two ko losses in his last three. The sub threat is there and i can see Rojo beating Malke by winning boxing exchanges in a narrow dec. Malke has gone to split in his last two.
 
Stat_Collector said:
I can see Rojo pulling off the upset. But his chin and sub defense is a problem. Rojo is the better boxer of the two, he has fought better but lost some of those.

Malke has no ko power in his hands. he’s got solid thai kicks which is his strongest skill and near solid bjj but no decent wrestling to compliment his bjj. But Rojo being flakey who knows.

Dog or pass but i would not touch an aging Rojo at 35 with two ko losses in his last three. The sub threat is there and i can see Rojo beating Malke by winning boxing exchanges in a narrow dec. Malke has gone to split in his last two.
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Linhares missed weight by like 5 lbs too
 
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Shouldn't Shimon be a bigger favorite than -210? He's pretty ass but this type of competition is who he usually shines against.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Shouldn't Shimon be a bigger favorite than -210? He's pretty ass but this type of competition is who he usually shines against.
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parlayed him with Joshua Aleman and Gurule with next weeks ufc card.

Aleman is going for -145* when i hit that line. he is a promising prospect. Any fighter pulling off flying knees in their early career gets a hit play by me.
 
Stat_Collector said:
parlayed him with Joshua Aleman and Gurule with next weeks ufc card.

Aleman is going for -145* when i hit that line. he is a promising prospect. Any fighter pulling off flying knees in their early career gets a hit play by me.
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I got a Freeplay on BOL and ended up with Shimon/Gurule/Moran/Rong/Haraguchi, which should hit on paper. Good luck with Aleman, his opponent lost to Smotherman so it should be free lol.
 
Shimon picks up a decision, only need Gurule and Moran now. Trujillo is the only dog I'm worried about but if he's truly a 5'2 goblin then he should lose, right? Lol.
 
Parlay comes through with a split for Moran, don't think I'll pick him from now on, or touch any 5 round fight at this regional level going forward though.
 
Sunday 09.24.2023 at 2:30 PM eastern

YouTube

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/104369-fury-challenger-series-7

https://twitter.com/hashtag/FuryCS7?src=hashtag_click&f=live

https://fightodds.io/odds/5246/fury-challenger-series-7

https://sports.betonline.ag/sportsbook/martial-arts/mma/fury-challenger-series-7



Fury Challenger Series 7
05:30 PM
25401
Casey Jones
+350
25402
Abdul Kamara
-450
05:30 PM
25405
Pena Allamov
+200
25406
Justice Torres
-260
05:30 PM
25409
Nico Echeverry
+375
25410
Kody Steele
-500
05:30 PM
25413
Freddie Rodriguez
-200
25414
Alex De La Cruz
+160
05:30 PM
25417
Gunner Coronado
+120
25418
Jacob Berry
-150
05:30 PM
25421
Stevie Payne
+300
25422
Robelis Despaigne
-400
05:30 PM
25425
Jordan Plutin
+240
25426
Gregory Foster
-300
05:30 PM
25429
Ilias Faquiri
+240
25430
Sean Kennard
-300

wqdPpTi.png
 
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happy sunday, doing some taping for fun.

going to do honest assessment of fights with no bias and no tunnel vision.
 
Torres/Pena

Pena
Pros
  • karate background
  • height & reach
  • solid kicking and variety of kicks
cons
  • blue belt grappling
  • a striker who likes to grapple
  • poor stamina management due to failed takedowns
  • spams takedowns , panic grapples
  • poor boxing guard , poor head movement
Torres
  • Decent hands with ground and pound
  • slightly better boxer from close range
  • solid kicks with finishing power
  • slight wrestling edge
  • muscular stout fighter
  • Better stamina and tends to ctrl his pace better
cons
  • short , low reach
  • low power in the hands in standup
  • bjj is very basic, relies more on wrestling to scramble power out and escape
  • can be too passive at times, looking to parry and give up points

I conclude Torres the rightful favorite. But not a strong lean , i do think his fight iq and ability to manage his cardio will be the biggest factor. I see Pena fading and gassing in the mid 2 rounds and being out grappled , i also see Torres winning most of the boxing exchanges. I give Pena 40% chance to upset if he uses his reach and kicks and point fights from far away. But im gonna go with Torres for having higher win consistency since his amateur days. He also did mma a lot longer, debut was 2017 vs 2020 . Im gonna side with better experience overall.

Torres makes a good parlay piece. Of course no absolutes in mma .
 
Alex/Freddie

Freddie pros
  • State champ wrestler
  • decent clinch wrestling, decent takedowns
  • boxing basic with some positives, stiff jab, check hook
  • decent power in his hands, gnp mostly
  • good stamina, long grinding wrestler , no quit
  • 2014 debut vs 2018
cons
  • weak competition, wins, losses to most with a decent record
  • weak bjj, been subbed before 3x , relies on wrestling more than bjj
  • short height reach by a large margin
  • wrestling should be better based on credentials
  • average tdd for a wrestler
  • weak top ctrl , no submission threats
Alex
pros
  • Also has wrestling background
  • solid kicker
  • faced better competition, by low margin tho
  • height reach advantage
  • boxing hands up
  • range ctrl , decent slip back pivots
  • wrestling cardio , stamina is good as well
cons
  • Boxing needs some work, relies on kicks too much
  • also has weak bjj , relies heavy on wrestling skills
  • Lack of power in the hands.
  • vulnerable to a sub loss in the future
  • passive, low activity in the striking, no boxing combinations

I think Alex will win this , he's good value, dropped from 150+ to 110+ in last hour... no need to really dive deep, he's proven to at least handle the striking pressure of a kick boxer in his last fight and hold his own. He's too careful on the feet to get caught by the check hook of freddie, mean while i see him using his size to win the grappling exchanges and getting top ctrl. On the feet he should land his leg kicks and stay at bay. I give him a 65/45 maybe I'm being generous. I think he makes a gd parlay play. a mild play for his ML at current odds is playable.
 
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Parlay

Amount:$38.00
Status:
Pending
To win:$101.45
Type parlay

Alex/Justice and Robelis

odds are at 266+ odds

I think Freddie has the biggest chance for upset only because i have some doubt about alex being out experienced. And its the first time he's faced a solid wrestler in his career. but i have high hopes he beats the more decorated wrestler.

I added Robelis in there. I think he's too far better that it goes without saying. I avoided the juicy mismatches, and the can fights. While Robelis vs Stevie is close to a can fight, i just see a mismatch between them. Robelis has better movement and can punch as well as kick, plus height and reach .

id go ham, but im not interested even betting a unit size on low level mma. plus its fun money.
 
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