Has anyone found success in MMA betting?

[hard bondage of course]

Been betting on MMA since 2003 (!), been living off it exclusively since 2010.

There is no single winning formula. I constantly read about how my personal betting habits will lead to ruin and misery, but I've had zero losing years and haven't ever come close to one. Like everything else in life, it's about finding what works for you personally, most of the "expertise" of other people is noise relative to lived experience.

IMO the biggest challenge is staying ahead of sportsbook limits when you're successful, because of the inherent unreliability of other people. Finding people who'll place bets and won't flake out when they start to see the returns come in is much more difficult than picking the results has ever been.

 

[2fast2furious]

Me.

And I regularly bet huge favorites and that worka for me

 

[LiquidNuke]

Just always bet on Wong Kin Mi and you'll be up so many units your fucking head will spin.

 

[raketmannen]

IMO the biggest challenge is staying ahead of sportsbook limits when you're successful, because of the inherent unreliability of other people. Finding people who'll place bets and won't flake out when they start to see the returns come in is much more difficult than picking the results has ever been.

So fucking true. The hardest part about betting on MMA is actually being able to place large enough bets.

That "only 2% is profitable" I really doubt is the true for betting on MMA. Or there are just a huge amount of people just betting for fun without any research/knowledge at all, which is probably the case but that they would consist of 98% sounds too much. I don't think the books profit much at all from MMA compared to other sports.

I think over 50% of the regular posters here makes a profit or are at least breaking even.

 

[piglord]

i think the amount of people betting mma in a concerted, strategic manner and interacting with other bettors are in an extreme minority compared to the amount of degenerates who are randomly betting main events just for beer money and shit.

i had a facebook page for a while before they shut me down and the type of people i was interracting with were very different to the type of people you'd find on twitter discussing line movement and shit. the facebook dudes were actually a lot cooler but mainly cared about main events and winning some fast money on the weekend - didn't give a shit about prices or value.

 

[mds1303]

There are a lot of sweeping generalizations here. The winning % you need to be profitable at -110 is completely irrelevant in mma. Winning % as a whole, really, is meaningless if you’re a serious bettor. I don’t care about it at all — I think I won 37% of my bets last year (spreadsheet tracks it for me) while more than doubling my bankroll ($25,000). ROI is what it’s all about. Really, a good mma handicapper should be able to maintain a 15% ROI or better in the long term. @Gugabe will tell you a cocker spaniel could hold 20%, but imo 20% over a year or two or more of tracking bets is elite level. Good handicappers can hold 15%. Anything worse than that (but better than 0%, of course) over a large sample size and luck has just happened to have been on your side imo.

I agree I def made some generalizations, but as I mentioned I was just giving a broad view of the likelihood of being successful long term with betting MMA and it not be a product of luck. In regards to winning percentage, I mentioned it bc it is the barometer that most tipster’s use, but of course there are many ways to analyze one’s own record.


The mathematical examples that I used were stating the win percentage that would be necessary to be profitable based on what the vig was, only when it was a supposed 50/50 proposition (i.e. NFL bets against the spread). You could adjust for the odds in MMA fights, just like you could do with monelines in the NFL, and once you do then yes that percentage would be relevant to MMA, bc it would have to be above the cutoffs I mentioned.


So it is a stretch to say that winning percentage as a whole is meaningless if you are a “serious bettor.” It is a commonly used tool, just like ROI is. Just different ways of looking at the numbers.

 

[sonofjay817]

I was up 29k from betting almost only on mma. I lost it all in 3 months lol. I’m starting over trying to do what I did when I was winning which was keep it simple. Props and parlays caused a lot of losses. When I was winning I was mostly picking favorites and only a couple fights a card.

how much did you start with, and did you add to it along with more deposits or make it grow purely from winnings?

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Thanks to MMA betting I live a lot more comfortable life than before!

Now that I've sold a lot of unnecessary things that just cluttered my house I feel a lot more free to enjoy the simple things of life. Like a nice walk outside or a simple candle light dinner with ramen noodles.

Edit: For the people who want to use MMA betting just for fun, to add more excitement to the watching experience - just bet between you and your friends directly (do not feed the bookie, they are rich enough), put like a beer or couple of dollars between friends for the fun. Nobody really loses, it's like a win-win situation almost. You bet next to nothing it's a fun thing between friends.

 

[johnnyknuckles7]

I have had luck placing bets on mma fights for quite some time now. For example, the Rory Mcdonald vs Mousasi fight was an easy pick for me. I saw the Moose as a much better fighter than Rory (which in my opinion is not as athletic as Mousasi, and again IMO, very overrated).

Another one that was an easy pick for me (even though the bookmakers had it at a pretty even odds), was Tony Ferguson vs Pettis. IMO Pettis is, not to sound harsh, but dealing with some mental issues, since he doesn't seem like "having it" anymore. He was losing (badly) against wonderboy until he connected and wonderboy's chin decided to shut down on him.

Anyways, long story short, i'm thinking about learning more about sports betting (bank roll management, etc), and hopefully make a decent side-income.

If anybody has any recommendations about sports betting books, people to follow to speed up the learning curve, etc I'll appreciate the suggestions.

 

[Portmanteau]

I have had luck placing bets on mma fights for quite some time now. For example, the Rory Mcdonald vs Mousasi fight was an easy pick for me. I saw the Moose as a much better fighter than Rory (which in my opinion is not as athletic as Mousasi, and again IMO, very overrated).

Another one that was an easy pick for me (even though the bookmakers had it at a pretty even odds), was Tony Ferguson vs Pettis. IMO Pettis is, not to sound harsh, but dealing with some mental issues, since he doesn't seem like "having it" anymore. He was losing (badly) against wonderboy until he connected and wonderboy's chin decided to shut down on him.

Anyways, long story short, i'm thinking about learning more about sports betting (bank roll management, etc), and hopefully make a decent side-income.

If anybody has any recommendations about sports betting books, people to follow to speed up the learning curve, etc I'll appreciate the suggestions.

If you are serious into sports betting you gotta embrace the statistics aspects of it. You may win here and there, but to ensure long-term success you must learn and apply things like bank roll management and unit management. Take a look at Wayne Winston's Mathletics. It covers several topics in baseball, basketball and football via a statistics-heavy approach. It goes well with another data analysis books.

Since sports betting is always changing and new techniques are developed, also keep an eye on online blogs (which are updated much more often).

Pinnacle’s blog is a good place to start

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-resources

Also search amazon for books and filter further for top reviews

https://www.amazon.com/s?k=betting+books

Also check these couple of links, those sites breakdown some betting books you can start with ( Wong’s Sharp Sports Betting is a good start as well)

https://www.gamblingsitesonline.org/sports/articles/7-best-books-about-sports-betting/

https://www.payperheadhost.com/sports-betting/books/

 

[TrueAscension]

Thanks to MMA betting I live a lot more comfortable life than before!

Now that I've sold a lot of unnecessary things that just cluttered my house I feel a lot more free to enjoy the simple things of life. Like a nice walk outside or a simple candle light dinner with ramen noodles.

Edit: For the people who want to use MMA betting just for fun, to add more excitement to the watching experience - just bet between you and your friends directly (do not feed the bookie, they are rich enough), put like a beer or couple of dollars between friends for the fun. Nobody really loses, it's like a win-win situation almost. You bet next to nothing it's a fun thing between friends.

lol wtf

 

[thehighking]

A streak can definitely give you a false sense of confidence, but a professional bettor won't let previous results affect future bets. Every fight is a whole new ballgame.

As for number of bets per card, I'm a firm believer that each fight is it's own entity. Depending on the card you could bet every fight or pass completely. MMA is probably the best sport to bet on long term as bookies can't handicap it down to a science like with baseball, football, etc.

Ya I agree. I think if you want to make money on MMA betting you have to really choose which fights are worth betting on. MMA has a lot of risk because sometimes crazy unpredictable things happen and underdogs turn the tables and most often the favorites aren't worth betting on when you think of risk vs reward. Sometimes a fight will come up where you just know the bookies got it wrong and that's where real money can be made

 

[Krieg the Psycho]

I agree I def made some generalizations, but as I mentioned I was just giving a broad view of the likelihood of being successful long term with betting MMA and it not be a product of luck. In regards to winning percentage, I mentioned it bc it is the barometer that most tipster’s use, but of course there are many ways to analyze one’s own record.


The mathematical examples that I used were stating the win percentage that would be necessary to be profitable based on what the vig was, only when it was a supposed 50/50 proposition (i.e. NFL bets against the spread). You could adjust for the odds in MMA fights, just like you could do with monelines in the NFL, and once you do then yes that percentage would be relevant to MMA, bc it would have to be above the cutoffs I mentioned.


So it is a stretch to say that winning percentage as a whole is meaningless if you are a “serious bettor.” It is a commonly used tool, just like ROI is. Just different ways of looking at the numbers.

I think many tipster use winning percentage as a barometer because it's easy for them to make it look good by betting heavy favorites (while still actually losing money).

 

[KBE6EKCTAH_CCP]

I was up 29k from betting almost only on mma. I lost it all in 3 months lol. I’m starting over trying to do what I did when I was winning which was keep it simple. Props and parlays caused a lot of losses. When I was winning I was mostly picking favorites and only a couple fights a card.

I am a shitty, noob bettor with a 3-3 record.
The first 3 losses were betting on underdogs.
The 3 wins were betting on heavy favourites.

My issue with my record is that obviously, heavy favourites return crap money, so that with the above bets and betting the same amount of money everytime, I am still down -24%. So I could go on betting on heavy favourites and hope to climb back up slowly, but one odd upset and it wipes out like 3 to 5 sucessful favourite picks....

EDIT: this goes to say that succes rate amounts to dog shit when it comes to betting because it all comes down to benefit / risk. If you only bet on favourites you could get what, 80% success rate over the long run? But if you win peanuts every time it won't make up for the losses on the 20%.

 

[TrueAscension]

Betting heavy favorites on the ML is often fruitless unless you have the roll and a really strong read on the fight.

Taping is essential when you’re looking at betting a dog and finding their path to victory. A good example are the heavy WMMA dogs that can win with top control or clinch against strikers as we learned this past weekend. Chiasson a huge favorite and her wins look good but come against terrible fighters, one of whom stole a round by using the tactic above.

I like to stick to evens or close to it when I think a fighter has an edge. IE Adesanya (who I got as a dog)

 

[Krieg the Psycho]

I am a shitty, noob bettor with a 3-3 record.
The first 3 losses were betting on underdogs.
The 3 wins were betting on heavy favourites.

My issue with my record is that obviously, heavy favourites return crap money, so that with the above bets and betting the same amount of money everytime, I am still down -24%. So I could go on betting on heavy favourites and hope to climb back up slowly, but one odd upset and it wipes out like 3 to 5 sucessful favourite picks....

EDIT: this goes to say that succes rate amounts to dog shit when it comes to betting because it all comes down to benefit / risk. If you only bet on favourites you could get what, 80% success rate over the long run? But if you win peanuts every time it won't make up for the losses on the 20%.

Exactly. The bolded is what I was trying to say above and one reason why tipsters with huge winning percentages should be avoided.

 

[BigNick100]

This is a broad topic, as people have different ways of betting. These are my 2 cents.

Betting heavy favorites are risky, considering you have to hit a high clip of them at a high % to profit long term.

Example, betting a -300 favorite you would need to hit 4 out of 5 bets (%80 clip) to profit long term. Go 3 for 5 on a -300 favorite (%60 clip which is still decent) and you have lost money.

I stay away from heavy favorites personally, I dont like to play anything about -190 really straight. I do parlay favorites though sometimes and the reason is as listed above, gotta go 4 for 5 on a -300 for example so you are going to have to hit back to back bets anyways at least once in those 5 bets so just parlay them.

Do your research and don't be afraid to play dogs. Dogs hit at a good clip and there is at least a couple dogs, if not more that hit each event, and it's up to you to do your homework and tape watch and figure out if the lines are off. I hit 4 dogs last week, some I was able to get on dog odds early and others just stayed dog odds. Hit Diakiese at +105, Nicholas Dalby at +160, Makhmud Muradov at +130 and Jared Cannonier at +220 average. One thing I like to do is tape fights for odds that aren't out yet, so you don't let the current lines cloud your thoughts seeing fighter A is a favorite or underdog in the bookies eyes.

Also, being successful can come back to bite you in the ass when you get overconfident. Being successful in anything in life, sports, betting, business, once you start reaching the top it's easy to get complacent and not research as hard. or in other cases not work as hard. You start getting looser with your bets since you have a big cushion is a big no no, because being loose and have a run of success like that can build bad habits and you start making riskier bets without even knowing it. Staying disciplined if you have a small or big bank roll is key to long term success. I have seen guys bankroll get stagnate because they fall into bad betting habits and sometimes get away with it but fail to correct it and continue to make them leading to a up and down bankroll instead of steady growth.

Another thing is juicy props can get addicting, but props should always be small bets across the board. Example, I like Izzy this Saturday and got his ML at +115 for 2u. Also took his dec prop at +360 but for .25u. If Izzy wins in any way I am in the profit regardless. If Izzy wins and wins a dec, I just got some extra profit. And that's how it should be looked at, a cherry on the top type of bet if it hits, but a bet that won't affect your bankroll or profit if it doesn't hit.

And last I will post this,, thoughts from someone else but pretty much nailed it on the head.

"Just because you won a big pot/hand or sports bet doesn't mean it was a good bet. It could be a bad bet or you got very lucky and the key is recognizing it. It's being honest with yourself. Because bad bets and plays catch up, making negative ev plays never work out over a large sample size. Bettors in general have this fallacy where they think they are better than they really are and stop learning, it's a human psychology ego problem."

Always keep learning, never get a big head.

 

[K1fan]

When I first began betting I went 15-0 bet singles and won 4500€.After that it went downhill.Been playin since 2012.I have been winning lately.2800 last 5 months.But I took a long time to reach this point again lol

 

[K1fan]

Up 3600 after last weekend.Great year so far.

 

[mowwww]

I disagree that tipsters all are scams.

Successful bettors have problems to wager bets cause of bookies limits.
So giving tips away and charging people is a safe extra income without extra work since they need to watch tapes for their own bets.

But yea decreasing odds are are real issue if the tipster has too many members to send tips to.
Low liquidity on MMA in general and moving lines is kinda easy.