How Has Your Betting Success Changed Over Time?

nebulousned

nebulousned

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I've only really been betting on MMA for the last 4-5 months or so.

As it is now I'm up $222, but $200 is from one lucky parlay on Jones/Nunes/Walt Harris. My success is questionable. Last fight in particular I lost $34 because i picked both Max and Kelvin incorrectly. (Don't really regret Kelvin, but i do regret betting on Max)

Every time i lose I believe I learn. This time I knew i should have trusted my gut when i saw how small Max was in the weighins and staredowns. It reminded me of how Conor was a worldbeater in featherweight but how (imo) Conor gets mashed by most of the lightweight top 10.

I'm wondering if my win % will go up over time. What's everyone else's experience with this? And have any of you done anything actionable to improve your judgement?
 
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It's definitely important to be very critical of one's decisions and plays, EVEN the ones that win.

For instance, I made some money betting Drakkar Klose at -245 against Bobby Green. I won it, but in retrospect, it was a mediocre play.

On the flipside, sometimes you lose a lot of money, but you made the right play. I went heavy on Derrick Lewis at +210 against Junior Dos Santos and very heavy on Sabina Mazo at an average of -155. Both were big losers, but I don't regret either one with the information we have from the video, reasonable expectations, or even how the subsequent fights played out.

There is also a difference between mistakes in analyzing a fight and mistakes in how you bet a fight. I have been especially guilty of the latter by overplaying props, which are intrinsically more random, chaotic, and resistant to prediction than simple money lines.

MMA betting is a tough hobby with some big swings based on very small things that alter fights, and in some cases, outright robberies.

Sometimes you do well in spite of various mistakes, and other times you do horribly in spite of solid analysis.
 
nebulousned said:
I've only really been betting on MMA for the last 4-5 months or so.

As it is now I'm up $222, but $200 is from one lucky parlay on Jones/Nunes/Walt Harris. My success is questionable. Last fight in particular I lost $34 because i picked both Max and Kelvin incorrectly. (Don't really regret Kelvin, but i do regret betting on Max)

Every time i lose I believe I learn. This time I knew i should have trusted my gut when i saw how small Max was in the weighins and staredowns. It reminded me of how Conor was a worldbeater in featherweight but how (imo) Conor gets mashed by most of the lightweight top 10.

I'm wondering if my win % will go up over time. What's everyone else's experience with this? And have any of you done anything actionable to improve your judgement?
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Conor's had 2 light weight fights and won a round against a guy that had never lost a round, while injured along with dismantling a multi-org champion and making him look silly.
 
Aaron Stevenson said:
Conor's had 2 light weight fights and won a round against a guy that had never lost a round, while injured along with dismantling a multi-org champion and making him look silly.
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he's had 4 and he's 2-2, in featherweight he was 7-0 in the UFC.

let's agree to disagree here because there's no way to factually prove how he will perform against the top 10 lightweights by talking about it here.

I'm just hoping some seasoned bettors come and comment on their betting performance over time.
 
nebulousned said:
Every time i lose I believe I learn.
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This right here is key, and should continue through your entire betting career. I'd say it takes 1-2 years to really get a proper feel for it and eliminate most basic mistakes. You seem to already have great bankroll management which is a huge part of succeeding in this. Compounding your unit size is key to BR growth, but no rush in the beginning. Once you're seeing consistent profit over a significant sample size is when you should start to consider it. I'm playing with about an 81k BR now and am still learning every event, moreso from losses.

Watching tape is necessary for long term success, you can profit just wikicapping but you won't go far. You probably already know this, but remember you're betting the number, not the fighter.
 
Sadistics said:
remember you're betting the number, not the fighter.
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That's not what I've heard. Locks and parlays are the key!

foil.0.png
 
Learning from a loss is probably the most important thing. The key here is evaluating your bets post event. Honestly, one of the biggest faults of bettors in general is the inability to analyze after an event. I don't know how many times people have stated "this seemed to be the right bet based on the information that was available" or "who knew he'd fight like that". While that may be true at times, I guarantee you there were people betting the other side "based on the information that was available" or looking at the possibility that the matchup would have a fighter with a different gameplan or whatever.
 
I won a shit ton of money doing incredibly stupid shit, and so I will never stop making ridiculous bets and chasing hard.
 
@nebulousned Numbers dont fight , look at The fighters. Some guys here would bet Lobov against Aldo because he Has a plus number . There is a difference between dog who has value and a REAL chance to win or a dog with a nice number but no chance to win. This weekend they are betting Jackie Chan Lol waste of money
 
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Wiktoruspro said:
@nebulousned Numbers dont fight , look at The fighters. Some guys here would bet Lobov against Aldo because he Has a plus number . There is a difference between dog who has value and a REAL chance to win or a dog with a nice number but no chance to win. This weekend they are betting Jackie Chan Lol waste of money
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Except massive dogs overperform in MMA by a wide margin. Any SU line that is more than +350 essentially has near guaranteed value.
 
EndlessCritic said:
Except massive dogs overperform in MMA by a wide margin. Any SU line that is more than +350 essentially has near guaranteed value.
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Do you bet against Jones every time then?

Not criticising, genuinely just curious.
 
nebulousned said:
Do you bet against Jones every time then?

Not criticising, genuinely just curious.
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I have generally bet against Jones, except where I felt there was enough value on a prop. For instance, I bet $800 on Jones itd against Belfort, and also cashed the sub line.

jonesitd.jpg
 
burge13 said:
You've had many successful bettors explain the concept to you and you refuse to listen/learn. Says more about you than anything else...
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Maybe you understand me wrong , listen I bet dogs myself when I see value. But There are ,,waste of money" bets like Jackie Chan last weekend or Suckerbum against Montel Jackson. Fuck The big plus number in this fights if The Guy will lose anyway
 
Won $1,200 by round-robin'ing as many Brazilians as I could for the Belfort/Rockhold Fight Night and then went on to lose every single bet from then until now. <45>
 
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