Mastriano surging is also helping Oz. And national sentiment is important in this race because PA is the rail head of these top national issues (excluding border). Inflation and Crime. Philly has record crime numbers and places like WaWa are announcing they are leaving the city because of that, the city is literally closing down and being overran by crime. Fetterman wants to release criminals and Shapiro is the top law guy in the state. They directly are an influence to this record crime wave both in PA and nationally.
And then with inflation, Mastriano has a very specific plan to open up energy in PA (PA does have a lot of energy potential), including two pipe lines, among other things. Not to mention his tougher stances on crime, increasing police funding, etc. So he is bringing out a lot of voters who normally wouldn’t vote and/or voted blue in the past but aren’t very political. By proxy, those independents are breaking to Oz now more and more.