Just checked the betting line for Cyborg/Holm: WOW!!!

[The Natural Born Runner]

This fucking guy again. Totally exposed during the RDA/Lawler card when he showed he does live betting and changes his picks mid fight. He has no clue pre-fight.

Woodley over Lawler
Lesnar over Hunt
Dillashaw over Garbrandt
Cruz over Dillashaw
Nunes over Rousey
Nunes over Tate
Nunes over Shevchenko
Diaz over Johnson
Till over Cerrone
Masvidal over Cerrone
Lawler over MacDonald (both times)

Do you want me to continue with all of my correct predictions?

 

[The Natural Born Runner]

where do I place my bet?

Betway.

 

[Yashabo]

I do believe Cyborgs run is coming to an end, if Holly doesn't do it then Mommy Long Legs Megan Anderson will.

Placing a few bucks on Holly is a worthwhile investment.

We all know what Holly's plan will be. She'll back up and attempt to counter Cyborg. If she's on form she could evade the big shots, avoid getting trapped against the cage, effectively land some counter shots and drag Cyborg into the later rounds. If Holly is in prime form and Cyborg is slightly off color it's fully possible Holly can pull of the upset, I believe in her.

Meagan Anderson is so fucking overrated. She was wobbled and almost finished by Charmaine fucking Tweet. I Cyborg hits her with a solid punch it's fucking over.

 

[The Natural Born Runner]

Betting on Holm is just throwing away money. People keep on saying but Holly was able to defeat the unbeatable Ronda she has a chance here...... No. Ronda was never unbeatable. Comparing Ronda to Cyborg is a terrible fallacy right out of the gate. EVEN IF Holly was able to outstrike Cyborg, Cyborg still has the option to take Holly to the ground and expose her there. TS and everyone else actually saying they FAVOR Holm are downright idiotic and I hope you all lose alot of money for it.

What you're failing to realize is that with these odds I could find change down the back of my couch and make good returns.

Let's just say you found it in your heart to do the following:

£5 on Round 3 Holly
£5 on Round 4 Holly
£5 on Round 5 Holly

If one of those come in you've made somewhere between £165 and £250, and if you lose you've only lost £15.

Now let's say you felt cheeky enough to lump £100 on it to go longer than 1.5 rounds, at 4/9 you'd make £44 which would cover your other bets and make you a small profit.

Now let's say you had bigger balls and wanted to put £500 on it going longer than 1.5 rounds? You'd win £220.

Personally, I don't see the harm in spending a little bit of money here.

 

[chukutee]

Yes and no.

Ronda wasn't 1/16 over Holly just because people were betting on Ronda, the oddsmakers just clearly couldn't see Holm winning and wanted to minimize the payouts to the customers who were betting on Ronda. The bookies must have lost a lot of money on that fight.

Nah, bookies are mathematicians, not fight fans. The lines are set automatically by algorithms who don't know or care who Holly Holm is.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Which is why this is misleading

Wrong.

Both wins are by headkick, both are of novice strikers with weak chins. Cyborg is a brawler with savage KO power, and if you think she's getting KOed by a headkick then put some money on it.

All three loses are more telling. Holly's biggest weakness is her groundgame, and Cyborg is a BJJ black belt with effective GnP.

Holly's broken her hand in a fight, and it might break again.

And Holly's been unable to adjust in fights that aren't going her way.

But, Holly's biggest advantage is her coach, Jacksons, who has a history of forming gameplans to their fighters strengths and picks apart their opponents by their weaknesses.

 

[Sapp]

Nah, bookies are mathematicians, not fight fans. The lines are set automatically by algorithms who don't know or care who Holly Holm is.

Citation? Lines are certainly adjusted by algorithms based on bets made, but the initial line itself is set by oddsmakers (often via assigned power ratings)- algorithms are involved in the process, but they definitely don't set things automatically absent human oversight .

 

[The Natural Born Runner]

Wrong.

Both wins are by headkick, both are of novice strikers with weak chins. Cyborg is a brawler with savage KO power, and if you think she's getting KOed by a headkick then put some money on it.

All three loses are more telling. Holly's biggest weakness is her groundgame, and Cyborg is a BJJ black belt with effective GnP.

Holly's broken her hand in a fight, and it might break again.

And Holly's been unable to adjust in fights that aren't going her way.

But, Holly's biggest advantage is her coach, Jacksons, who has a history of forming gameplans to their fighters strengths and picks apart their opponents by their weaknesses.

Isn't de Randamie an elite female kickboxer? Well at least in MMA? She didn't get KO'd by her did she?

 

[The Natural Born Runner]

Nah, bookies are mathematicians, not fight fans. The lines are set automatically by algorithms who don't know or care who Holly Holm is.

Why would Dubois open as 1/100 then?

Because thousands of people have lumped cash onto him? or because there is close to zero % chance of him losing?

Yes, for the most part they have mathematical geniuses doing the calcs, but the lines are created firstly based on chance of winning/losing.

You only end up getting Floyd at 1/4 when thousands of Conor zombies lump onto Conor, in that instance, you are certainly correct in your theory.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Isn't de Randamie an elite female kickboxer? Well at least in MMA? She didn't get KO'd by her did she?

Are you going to reply to anything in my post?

As for your post, which I am responding to, yeah Holly wasn't KOed and she didn't KO Randamie. If anything, it goes toward my point Holly doesn't adjust during fights.

That fight was a wash.

 

[DC23]

4/1 for her to win imo is about right / good value. It's not worthy of boasting about "free money" just yet. Could easily back fire in your face.

I'll be putting a small amount on Holm / Khabib I think. Very small though.

 

[bean88]

Holly has lost 3 of her last 4 fights and hasn’t looked particularly good since she KOd Ronda who can’t even strike

The odds do seem a bit out but do you really have enough confidence in her to put worthwhile money down? And against cyborg of all people

 

[The Natural Born Runner]

4/1 for her to win imo is about right / good value. It's not worthy of boasting about "free money" just yet. Could easily back fire in your face.

I'll be putting a small amount on Holm / Khabib I think. Very small though.

4/9 on it going longer than 1.5 rounds is practically free money.

4/1 on points is also a great price.

 

[The Natural Born Runner]

Show us a bet slip then if you think you’re taking the bookies to the cleaners lol

I have a shitload of parlays open which are huge longshots but could cash me in a few hundred bucks, I'll see how they start off and then I might lump more on the over/under.

 

[DC23]

View attachment 317217

I have a shitload of parlays open which are huge longshots but could cash me in a few hundred bucks, I'll see how they start off and then I might lump more on the over/under.

Fair play. Best of luck. I hope she wins.

 

[Osiris3657]

Woodley over Lawler
Lesnar over Hunt
Dillashaw over Garbrandt
Cruz over Dillashaw
Nunes over Rousey
Nunes over Tate
Nunes over Shevchenko
Diaz over Johnson
Till over Cerrone
Masvidal over Cerrone
Lawler over MacDonald (both times)

Do you want me to continue with all of my correct predictions?

I see a lot of heavy favorites or pick em fights with more or less even betting odds.

Talk to me when you start regularly picking underdogs with decent payouts. Until then you remain the goof with the reputation of making embarrassing predictions. You're a fucking Sherdog meme! (Y'all have no clue who ______ is, do you?)

 

[youngsteinel]

If Cyborg cannot finish Tonya Evinger in 1.5 rounds, what on earth makes you think she'll finish Holly that quick?

If Holly Holm couldn't finish Pennington, Reneau, Tate, or GDR, what makes you think she'll finish Cyborg. I'm not jumping on board with your logic.

 

[The Natural Born Runner]

If Holly Holm couldn't finish Pennington, Reneau, Tate, or GDR, what makes you think she'll finish Cyborg. I'm not jumping on board with your logic.

Because I don't believe in MMAMath.

 

[youngsteinel]

Because I don't believe in MMAMath.

That's the exact logic you just used to me in your response....

 

[The Natural Born Runner]

That's the exact logic you just used to me in your response....

No, you somehow think that Tonya Evinger is going to be tougher to finish that Holly - that my friend makes no sense.

I wouldn't say a Holly finish is likely per se, but if you are giving me 40/1 and 50/1 odds on Cyborg getting tired and Holly finishing her late, I'll take those odds.

I personally do not rate Cyborg. She's a roided up bully who has never been in danger and has never genuinely been cracked on the chin with a kick or a punch in small gloves. I have no respect for her as an individual, because I do not like women pouring testosterone into their body and changing their genetic makeup. I also do not respect her as an athlete as she has fought bums her entire career, whilst being a supposed elite grappler and striker, and because of her own steroid use cannot get down to a reasonable weight of 135lbs where actual talent is.

I might be completely wrong and maybe Cyborg will just walk straight on through, but maybe she won't either.