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Right now Lightweight is one of the most stacked yet stuck in the past divisions. Here's a semi-realistic at how things should get booked.
C. Charles Oliveira vs 1 Justin Gaethje
All but announced, I don't know if Justin really deserves a title shot with a win over Chandler but he deserves it more than anyone else. Helluva fight.
2. Dustin Poirier vs NR Nate Diaz
I will love watching this fight but it is dumb as hell. Dustin is wasting a #2 ranking even though he's a win away from a title shot, and Diaz who doesn't deserve a fight against the #2 won't even be fighting to use the ranking if he wins. Plus it's likely at 170. Whatever.
3. Beneil Dariush v 4. Islam Makhachev
Great fight, coming up soon. Winner gets a title shot no doubt. Loser is sent to go do dirty work, more on that later.
5. Michael Chandler vs 9. Gregor Gillespie
There's been rumblings about Chandler vs Ferguson, but I both hate the idea of Michael getting a layup and Tony getting to fight UP in the rankings on a 3 fight skid. Gillespie just put on a great fight against CDF, he's running out of time, Chandler needs to show he still deserves to be at the top of LW. This is an awesome fight and the winner is right back in title contention. Winner likely fights the loser of the title fight.
6. Rafael Dos Anjos vs 11. Rafael Fiziev
5 rounds at UFC 272, a fight kinda similar to the one above. Dos Anjos needs to validate his top ten ranking he earned by beating Paul Felder, and Fiziev is a real rising star. Winner of this fight earns a shot IMO against the loser of Dariush vs Makachev. Loser sent to the gallows, more later.
7. Tony Ferguson vs 9. Conor McGregor
I know...I know. In a just world Conor would be stuck getting brutalized by Mustafaev or some other unranked killer, but there's no chance of him being forced to fight down. This is a good matchup of two super popular guys on bad streaks in dire need of a win. The winner earns the right to remain in the top 10 for another couple years, loser might just end up going home. Fun fight too.
8. Dan Hooker vs Arnold Allen at FW
People keep mentioning Hooker in LW discussions and it's pissing me off because because he's booked to fight at 145. Get him out of the rankings, he's off to featherweight. Good luck Hooker.
12. Mateusz Gamrot vs Loser of Rafa vs Rafa
May seem odd to give him a fight with a lower avg ranking than Chandler vs Gillespie but the thing is that Michael seems to be chasing money fights, and Gregor fights so infrequently, I just don't see either men taking on a killer like Gamrot if they lose. The losing Rafa will be a step up regardless of who, and provides a good style matchup for one of the most exciting up and comers.
13. Arman Tsarukyan vs NR Joel Alvarez
Currently booked, provided Alvarez makes weight for once this fight is really important, two of the absolute best up and comers at 155. Hard to say where the winner goes but if it is Arman he certainly deserves to fight up the rankings, he just might have to wait a little.
14. Brad Ridell vs NR Bobby Green
Riddell vs Fiziev was always gonna be awkward for the loser, stuck defending his rank while being a hot prospect. Brad has been nothing but excitement, but a loss to Rafa means he's stuck having a super exciting fight against Bobby Green. Green is on a great run, his only losses since 2020 being a controversial decision to Moises and a super close fight with Fiziev. This is a great fight and earns the winner a ticket back into top 10 conversations.
15. Carlos Diego Ferreria vs NR Renato Moicano
Recency bias? Maybe, but Moicano should never have been stuck fighting multiple bouts out of the top 15 anyway. CDF had a tough 2021 where he lost three times but looked great in each fight against bonafide contenders. One man will find himself back on track to a top 10 fight with a win here.
Bonus:
Damir Ismagulov vs Grant Dawson
Two of the best unranked fighters, Ismagulov has wins over Alvarez, Moises and Alves while Dawson has a crushing top game. Winner gets a ranked fight.
Moises vs Holtzman
Layup for poor Thiago.
Mark O Madsen vs Vinc Pichel
Two wrestlers who might be able to squeak their way into the rankings. Curiosu fight.
MAGOMED MUSTAFAEV VS GURAM KUTALADZE
Ultimate dark horse fight. Both guys have been inactive for too long. Winner gets a top 10 fight. This is a banger.
C. Charles Oliveira vs 1 Justin Gaethje
All but announced, I don't know if Justin really deserves a title shot with a win over Chandler but he deserves it more than anyone else. Helluva fight.
2. Dustin Poirier vs NR Nate Diaz
I will love watching this fight but it is dumb as hell. Dustin is wasting a #2 ranking even though he's a win away from a title shot, and Diaz who doesn't deserve a fight against the #2 won't even be fighting to use the ranking if he wins. Plus it's likely at 170. Whatever.
3. Beneil Dariush v 4. Islam Makhachev
Great fight, coming up soon. Winner gets a title shot no doubt. Loser is sent to go do dirty work, more on that later.
5. Michael Chandler vs 9. Gregor Gillespie
There's been rumblings about Chandler vs Ferguson, but I both hate the idea of Michael getting a layup and Tony getting to fight UP in the rankings on a 3 fight skid. Gillespie just put on a great fight against CDF, he's running out of time, Chandler needs to show he still deserves to be at the top of LW. This is an awesome fight and the winner is right back in title contention. Winner likely fights the loser of the title fight.
6. Rafael Dos Anjos vs 11. Rafael Fiziev
5 rounds at UFC 272, a fight kinda similar to the one above. Dos Anjos needs to validate his top ten ranking he earned by beating Paul Felder, and Fiziev is a real rising star. Winner of this fight earns a shot IMO against the loser of Dariush vs Makachev. Loser sent to the gallows, more later.
7. Tony Ferguson vs 9. Conor McGregor
I know...I know. In a just world Conor would be stuck getting brutalized by Mustafaev or some other unranked killer, but there's no chance of him being forced to fight down. This is a good matchup of two super popular guys on bad streaks in dire need of a win. The winner earns the right to remain in the top 10 for another couple years, loser might just end up going home. Fun fight too.
8. Dan Hooker vs Arnold Allen at FW
People keep mentioning Hooker in LW discussions and it's pissing me off because because he's booked to fight at 145. Get him out of the rankings, he's off to featherweight. Good luck Hooker.
12. Mateusz Gamrot vs Loser of Rafa vs Rafa
May seem odd to give him a fight with a lower avg ranking than Chandler vs Gillespie but the thing is that Michael seems to be chasing money fights, and Gregor fights so infrequently, I just don't see either men taking on a killer like Gamrot if they lose. The losing Rafa will be a step up regardless of who, and provides a good style matchup for one of the most exciting up and comers.
13. Arman Tsarukyan vs NR Joel Alvarez
Currently booked, provided Alvarez makes weight for once this fight is really important, two of the absolute best up and comers at 155. Hard to say where the winner goes but if it is Arman he certainly deserves to fight up the rankings, he just might have to wait a little.
14. Brad Ridell vs NR Bobby Green
Riddell vs Fiziev was always gonna be awkward for the loser, stuck defending his rank while being a hot prospect. Brad has been nothing but excitement, but a loss to Rafa means he's stuck having a super exciting fight against Bobby Green. Green is on a great run, his only losses since 2020 being a controversial decision to Moises and a super close fight with Fiziev. This is a great fight and earns the winner a ticket back into top 10 conversations.
15. Carlos Diego Ferreria vs NR Renato Moicano
Recency bias? Maybe, but Moicano should never have been stuck fighting multiple bouts out of the top 15 anyway. CDF had a tough 2021 where he lost three times but looked great in each fight against bonafide contenders. One man will find himself back on track to a top 10 fight with a win here.
Bonus:
Damir Ismagulov vs Grant Dawson
Two of the best unranked fighters, Ismagulov has wins over Alvarez, Moises and Alves while Dawson has a crushing top game. Winner gets a ranked fight.
Moises vs Holtzman
Layup for poor Thiago.
Mark O Madsen vs Vinc Pichel
Two wrestlers who might be able to squeak their way into the rankings. Curiosu fight.
MAGOMED MUSTAFAEV VS GURAM KUTALADZE
Ultimate dark horse fight. Both guys have been inactive for too long. Winner gets a top 10 fight. This is a banger.
