Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion -- 2021 and Beyond

Just one horse racing selection from me today:

LAUREL PARK

RACE 2
#4 Just for Spite (12-1)

This horse has the best speed of all the entrants, and this is only 5.5 furlongs. Getting a great price even if it gets bet down a bit.
 
A good longer shot for you:

Santa Anita

RACE 2
#6 Mongolian Window (12-1) (hopefully a drop in class is the right ticket)
 
just won a 16-1 first leg of pick 3 at churchhill
CHURCHILL DOWNS
RACE 6
P3
2,5,8/1,1A,3,5/2,5,11
$.50

BET TOTAL:$13.50

2 was 16-1
 
Saturday will be here before you know it.
  • Tiz the Law (3-2)
In sportsbetting, and especially horserace wagering, the real value is in beating the favorite. I can't see where Tiz the Law doesn't get it done, however. Coming out of the #8 post is no problem for a race of this length.

Thinking about an EXACTA with Tiz keyed over a few other horses. That is the extent of my wagering, since I don't think the favorite is being beat.
 
Belmont-Park-logo.eb28ce0260f472d7fda46ee23104bdc5.jpg


RACE 1
#8 Quick Nick

RACE 2
#4 Coilean Bawn

RACE 3
#3 Bears Mafia

RACE 4
#3 Leitone

RACE 5
#7 Miss You Blues

RACE 6
#3 Queen Kahen

RACE 7
#4 Collegeville Girl

RACE 8
#1 Eye Luv Lulu

RACE 9
#7 Chimney Rock

RACE 10
#10 Topaz Bride
 
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GSP_logo_pegasus_4Cvertical_final1.jpg



RACE 1
#3 Acting Lucky

RACE 2
#6 R Boy Evens

RACE 3
#4 First Navy Admiral

RACE 4
#8 R Ninja J K

RACE 5
#4 Lookin At Roses

RACE 6
#11 Cpt. Rhett Butler

RACE 7
#5 R Uncle Eric

RACE 8
#7 Swirling Candy

RACE 9
#2 Goody Bye Greg
 
Black Paladin said:
GSP_logo_pegasus_4Cvertical_final1.jpg



RACE 1
#3 Acting Lucky

RACE 2
#6 R Boy Evens

RACE 3
#4 First Navy Admiral

RACE 4
#8 R Ninja J K

RACE 5
#4 Lookin At Roses

RACE 6
#11 Cpt. Rhett Butler

RACE 7
#5 R Uncle Eric

RACE 8
#7 Swirling Candy

RACE 9
#2 Goody Bye Greg
Click to expand...

You gonna bet in every one?
 
Vir_Ars said:
You gonna bet in every one?
Click to expand...

My general qualification is to only bet if my selection can hit 3-1 or better at post time. So many of those don't/won't meet my normal qualifications to WAGER. Some are a bit over 3-1 and get bet down. Some are under 3-1 to start, and stay there. VALUE is the name of the game. Me thinking a horse is going to win, but it going off at 1-9 is not going to be a valuable wager long-term.

Sometimes, I also disregard MAIDEN races.
 
Another qualification that I usually impose on horse racing wagering is that my projected winner is not the favorite. This is for value, and also it marries with the long-term statistic that the favorite only wins about 33% of the time.
 
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These selections on the Gulfstream Park June 20, 2020 (Happy Summer Solstice!) card use all of the above qualifications.

RACE 1
PASS - (favorite projected to win, winner odds under 3-1 odds, maiden race)

RACE 2
PASS - (maiden race)

RACE 3
#3 Etana (3-1)

RACE 4
PASS - (favorite projected to win, winner odds under 3-1 odds, maiden race)

RACE 5
PASS - (favorite projected to win, winner odds under 3-1 odds, maiden race)

RACE 6
#7 Bimini (6-1)

RACE 7
PASS - (favorite projected to win, winner odds under 3-1 odds, maiden race)

RACE 8
PASS - (favorite projected to win, winner odds under 3-1 odds)

RACE 9
PASS - (favorite projected to win, winner odds under 3-1 odds)

RACE 10
#7 Cpt. Rhett Butler (4-1)

RACE 11
#7 Max K. O. (15-1)

RACE 12
PASS - (favorite projected to win, winner odds under 3-1 odds)


So, out of twelve (12) scheduled races, I would only be wagering in four (4) of them. In the old days, if I was physically at the track, that would make for a very boring afternoon. But, with other simulcast options, and wagering from the Internet, it's not a big deal.
 
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