Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - March, 2017

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MMA Goodfella said:
It might be wise to bet South Carolina right now at half time trailing by nine points. Bet them not just to win but to stay within -8.5/-9

The reason is South Carolina is historically a second half team this season. i.e. just in the tournament alone they have trailed in two of the last three games at the half. They scored 54 point versus Duke and 65 versus Marquette in the second-half respectively to come back and win both games. This was also true for them and the regular season. They were also down seven at the half against Florida and came out and scored 44 points in the second half to hold the gators took 30 and they won by seven points. So they have a trend.
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You WANT me ITT you NEED me ITT

<{cum@me}>
 
La Liga
Barcelona - Granada
Messi and Piqué won't play.
Granada always start strong at home since the new coach came, and they also need points pretty badly if they want to avoid relegation
Atletico needed 85 minutes to score 1 goal in Los Carmenes
I don't think that they will concede goals in the first half, or at least not more than 1. If they lose, It will be in the 2nd Half
They have only conceced 1 goal in the 1stHalf in the last 11 matches.

Granada+1 1stHalf is going to be my play, but I'm wating for better odds since money is coming on Barcelona
Current odds 1.875
 
2u nadal +127

I feel dirty about it.
 
Jamah said:
La Liga
Barcelona - Granada
Messi and Piqué won't play.
Granada always start strong at home since the new coach came, and they also need points pretty badly if they want to avoid relegation
Atletico needed 85 minutes to score 1 goal in Los Carmenes
I don't think that they will concede goals in the first half, or at least not more than 1. If they lose, It will be in the 2nd Half
They have only conceced 1 goal in the 1stHalf in the last 11 matches.

Granada+1 1stHalf is going to be my play, but I'm wating for better odds since money is coming on Barcelona
Current odds 1.875
Click to expand...

Going to play this for 1u- thanks for the insight.
 
I kinda don't understand the line in the Utah/SA game. SA is basically locked in the second seed while the Jazz are fighting for home court in the first round against the Clippers. SA has announced that Green, Ginobli, and Aldridge are out today, yet this line is -5.5?! I don't get it

Jazz +5.5 for 2.2u
Jazz ML for 0.5u

Edit just saw G Hill was out as I was about to place my bet. Still like it but not as much. Ended up betting 1.1u on the spread and 0.25 on the ML at +190
 
@iGnP

I'm really on board the Kawhi MVP train. I think Westbrook and Harden are both having statistically historical seasons and it's tough to overlook that. Lebron is still amazing but they Cavs look horrible coming down the stretch and are guarding nobody (not really Lebron's fault for the most part, but still a factor). Kawhi meanwhile might not be QUITE the offensive player the other guys are (but if he isn't, it's by a very small margin). And honestly, he actually might be the best defender the league has ever seen. Or if not he's in the conversation at least. I realize longevity isn't there yet for him, but I just saw a stat that is absolutely mind blowing about him. He has more career steals than he has fouls committed. I cannot even comprehend how that's possible given that he's always expected to guard the opposing team's best offensive player at the 2, 3, or at times even 1 and 4 spots. To be able to do it without fouling almost at all is just insane.

I think given where the Spurs are and that they've had injuries this year to both Aldridge and Gasol is a testament to how valuable Kawhi is.
 
mkess101 said:
@iGnP

I'm really on board the Kawhi MVP train. I think Westbrook and Harden are both having statistically historical seasons and it's tough to overlook that. Lebron is still amazing but they Cavs look horrible coming down the stretch and are guarding nobody (not really Lebron's fault for the most part, but still a factor). Kawhi meanwhile might not be QUITE the offensive player the other guys are (but if he isn't, it's by a very small margin). And honestly, he actually might be the best defender the league has ever seen. Or if not he's in the conversation at least. I realize longevity isn't there yet for him, but I just saw a stat that is absolutely mind blowing about him. He has more career steals than he has fouls committed. I cannot even comprehend how that's possible given that he's always expected to guard the opposing team's best offensive player at the 2, 3, or at times even 1 and 4 spots. To be able to do it without fouling almost at all is just insane.

I think given where the Spurs are and that they've had injuries this year to both Aldridge and Gasol is a testament to how valuable Kawhi is.
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I'd love to see him win it, honestly. That finals where he won MVP against Lebron was one of the most impressed i've been my a non-superstar player (at the time). He plays the game the right way and gets his stats organically, as opposed to Westbrook who yells at his teammates if they don't shoot the ball after he passes it to them lol. Highly doubt he wins it, but yeah, he's definitely deserving to be in the conversation. Do you think there's gonna be a co-MVP this season or Westbrook all the way? I'm starting to think the latter with Harden's recent struggles/injury
 
Gonna try my hand at baseball this season until I start school. I made a separate spreadsheet to track the wins and losses because my MMA units and my NBA units are of greater $ amounts.

First play:
Diamondback/Giants u8.5 for 0.55u

Also have a futures play on the Dodgers to win the World Series at 10 to 1, risking 1u
 
iGnP said:
I'd love to see him win it, honestly. That finals where he won MVP against Lebron was one of the most impressed i've been my a non-superstar player (at the time). He plays the game the right way and gets his stats organically, as opposed to Westbrook who yells at his teammates if they don't shoot the ball after he passes it to them lol. Highly doubt he wins it, but yeah, he's definitely deserving to be in the conversation. Do you think there's gonna be a co-MVP this season or Westbrook all the way? I'm starting to think the latter with Harden's recent struggles/injury
Click to expand...

I think Westbrook probably wins it outright. It's not like anyone can have major beef with either of those two (Westbrook or Harden) winning it given the stats they are putting up, but from a pure value standpoint I really think Kawhi deserves it. Like you said he puts up #'s but does it within the confines of a system designed to move the ball and get everyone involved. Whereas Westbrook, Harden, and even Lebron have offenses built around them dominating the ball (Lebron a bit less with Kyrie sometimes taking the lead). And when you factor in that Kawhi is just on a completely different level defensively than those guys and NEVER hurts his team by getting technicals or taking dumb fouls, I think he's the MVP. He won't win it, but he should.
 
iGnP said:
Gonna try my hand at baseball this season until I start school. I made a separate spreadsheet to track the wins and losses because my MMA units and my NBA units are of greater $ amounts.

First play:
Diamondback/Giants u8.5 for 0.55u

Also have a futures play on the Dodgers to win the World Series at 10 to 1, risking 1u
Click to expand...

I like that u8.5 too, esp at +110. I had 1u on it already at -105, adding a unit at +110
 
mkess101 said:
I like that u8.5 too, esp at +110. I had 1u on it already at -105, adding a unit at +110
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Damn, i got it at -110, didn't even notice it moved to +110. Baseball season not off to a good start haha. Regarding Kawhi, he's also only averaging 2 turnovers a game and he has the 7th highest usage rate in the NBA. Big drop off from Harden and Westbrook but yeah, their usage rate is a decent bit higher
 
Jamah said:
La Liga
Barcelona - Granada
Messi and Piqué won't play.
Granada always start strong at home since the new coach came, and they also need points pretty badly if they want to avoid relegation
Atletico needed 85 minutes to score 1 goal in Los Carmenes
I don't think that they will concede goals in the first half, or at least not more than 1. If they lose, It will be in the 2nd Half
They have only conceced 1 goal in the 1stHalf in the last 11 matches.

Granada+1 1stHalf is going to be my play, but I'm wating for better odds since money is coming on Barcelona
Current odds 1.875
Click to expand...

I get the money back, but it was very very close... 1 minute away from cashing
 
Well there goes my under play. Bum looked so dominant up until that 7th inning too
 
Baseball is really hard to bet. Maybe the hardest major sport imo. Lines are sharp af
 
LEMONZEST said:
Baseball is really hard to bet. Maybe the hardest major sport imo. Lines are sharp af
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Respectfully, i dont agree. There's a very large sample size so if you're able to find an edge, you can easily exploit it. As opposed to football, for instance, where there is only 1 game a week (lots of time for coaches to fix mistakes during the previous week) and there are only 16 games per season per team not counting playoffs. Even basketball is very much a sport to bet on situations rather than pure numbers, because many players just dont give a crap on a certain night. Being able to recognize when a pitcher is being over/under valued isn't terribly difficult if you look into how to interpret saber metrics
 
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