Official UFC 195 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

+6,1u this event.

I have to rewatch round 3 of Lawler vs Condit. In general im not a fan of giving a round to the guy who throws half the amount of significant strikes because the strikes he throws are harder, even when they dont cause any significant damage. I totally understand why you would value those few strikes so much (r3) if they did hurt Condit but he just kept going like the tank he is. In a case like that i think you have to give it to the guy who throws 24 sig strikes to 12 or whatever it was.
 
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barrygood1 said:
I'm starting to get sick and tired of MMA judging. I might go on a break because this is just disgusting. I keep getting shafted by the incompetent judging. There is no way Robbie won that fight and I'm a huge Robbie fan. Condit beat him if you watched the fight objectively. I didn't even bet this fight and I'm livid right now!!!!
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As if you condit backers didn't know you would lose with the cooler backing him...
 
One of my best betting cards yet, all due to Dober, Mayday sub, and a round robbin of +point handicaps which covered those iffy splits.

I had Lawler +5.5 @ -175. I scored the fight 3-2 for Condit like almost everyone else but I knew he wasn't winning it when the cards were read. "To be the champ you have to beat the champ", yada yada, but he did great. That 5th round was fire.
 
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TimCoreCombat said:
My bets:

Straights
Kish: 3 units
Lawler: 16 units
Brandao R1 1 unit
Dober: 2 units
Condit Decision: 3 units
Larkin Decision: 1 unit
Poirier: 2 units

Parlays:
Westcott/Kish: 4 units
Kish/Soto: 2 units
Kish/Sims: 2 units
Lawler/Tumenov: 2 units
Tumenov/Ortega: 4 units

Played it a little harder than what I probably should have but I believe in my bets. I've crushed college football the last four days and am up over 17 units so I'm ok on BR.

Don't forget to catch Kish early. She will be putting on a show!
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Did really well last night. I know I am going to get criticize for my betting style last night but I guess good karma was on my side. I'm a little too hungover and early to calculate it but I am happy with the night.
 
I wasn't on last night because I was watching at my parent's house with family in town. My night started off great and ended up basically riding on Condit (by any method) or fight ending inside the distance. I used to always hedge in those situations to make sure I walked away with a profit, but a few posters talked me out of it in the long term. I checked Robbie via decision as it was the only way I'd lose and the odds had climbed drastically to +330 when last I checked it was under +200. I couldn't resist and put a hedge on it to where I'd still have a great night if Condit won ITD or a -5.5 decision. Any other result was a small profit for the night. I was pretty pissed going into the decision thinking, "I shouldn't have hedged", and then they read the scorecards. I was honestly shocked that got scored for Lawler. I thought it was a clear cut 48-47 Condit, and everyone I watched with agreed. I walked away with the same result due to the hedge, but how in the world does Lawler get 3 rounds there?
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Cormier and Woodley (and Florian?) think Larkin won the fight

Cormier and Woodley (and Florian?) also thought Condit won
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Media scorecards were indifferent on all the splits, unsurprisingly. Never seen so many coin flip decisions in one night.

Who has nfl action they're confident in today? Looking for action don't know where to put money
 
Media scorecards drastically disagreed with Morono and drastically disagreed with Lawler. The other two were decently split and could be argued. I can say that I had no clue how to score Tumenov vs. Larkin.
 
Oblivian said:
I wasn't on last night because I was watching at my parent's house with family in town. My night started off great and ended up basically riding on Condit (by any method) or fight ending inside the distance. I used to always hedge in those situations to make sure I walked away with a profit, but a few posters talked me out of it in the long term. I checked Robbie via decision as it was the only way I'd lose and the odds had climbed drastically to +330 when last I checked it was under +200. I couldn't resist and put a hedge on it to where I'd still have a great night if Condit won ITD or a -5.5 decision. Any other result was a small profit for the night. I was pretty pissed going into the decision thinking, "I shouldn't have hedged", and then they read the scorecards. I was honestly shocked that got scored for Lawler. I thought it was a clear cut 48-47 Condit, and everyone I watched with agreed. I walked away with the same result due to the hedge, but how in the world does Lawler get 3 rounds there?
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I dont know man. The judges love Lawlers style for some reason. The Hendricks II fight was even worse, that was a legit robbery.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Media scorecards were indifferent on all the splits, unsurprisingly. Never seen so many coin flip decisions in one night.

Who has nfl action they're confident in today? Looking for action don't know where to put money
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Wasnt almost all of media on Condit?
 
It's definitely two title fights in a row that most people had him losing and he walked away with a victory. Were the actual scorecards ever shown? Was the swing round the 3rd round? Edit: Nevermind, just saw it.
 
Joseph Budden said:
If the fight were scored as a whole Robbie still wins though lol there's a better argument for him under that criteria after the fifth
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Strongly disagree with that lol. I guess you mean because of r5? They were both completely done after that one.
 
Agent Mulder said:
Strongly disagree with that lol. I guess you mean because of r5? They were both completely done after that one.
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Yes cause of five. Both were done as in exhaustion, but Carlos was on the verge of being knocked out for a minute or two easy
 
Joseph Budden said:
Yes cause of five. Both were done as in exhaustion, but Carlos was on the verge of being knocked out for a minute or two easy
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Sure but Lawler was hurt bad in r4, not as much as Condit but when you get outlanded 198 to 78 that has to count for something.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Yes cause of five. Both were done as in exhaustion, but Carlos was on the verge of being knocked out for a minute or two easy
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Yeah but Robbie said he was too tired to throw anymore once he didn't get Condit out of there. Oddly, as amazing as Robbie was in the last 2 minutes of that fight, I think if it goes another 2 minutes Condit actually finishes him. He was exhausted too no doubt but iirc he was the one throwing punches as the round ended.
 
Agent Mulder said:
Sure but Lawler was hurt bad in r4, not as much as Condit but when you get outlanded 198 to 78 that has to count for something.
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mkess101 said:
Yeah but Robbie said he was too tired to throw anymore once he didn't get Condit out of there. Oddly, as amazing as Robbie was in the last 2 minutes of that fight, I think if it goes another 2 minutes Condit actually finishes him. He was exhausted too no doubt but iirc he was the one throwing punches as the round ended.
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Pretty sure Robbie was still throwing punches too. Even if we were to score the fight as a whole, that was the end of the fight, and you can't give credence to a hypothetical like "Carlos finishes if there is more time"

Honestly, you can make arguments for either guy winning easily imo. Stats favor Carlos, but round in question Robbie clearly landed the harder blows. When a fight comes down to one super close round, its a bit much screaming 'robbery'. Only fight that deserves that is the Noke fight.

If we weren't MMA loving degenerate gamblers, this was a card to avoid. I know I wasn't the only one who felt that way, and that ESPECIALLY holds true to the main event. Not a soul on earth didn't envision a back and forth war. So, in brutal honesty, gamblers who feel cheated should look at themselves not the judges. If you wanna win without a hint of luck involved, this wasn't the fight or card to play.
 
^Yeah man in no way do i think it was a robbery. It's just my subjective opinion and I dont blame anyone who scores it to Lawler. It's so subjective how you score volume vs power. It's just my opinion on scoring in general, no way was this a robbery I have seen much worse.
 
Some parlays I have for future fights:

1u Saffiedine + Pettis +104
2u Saffiedine + Rumble +102
2u Dillashaw + Pettis +111 (not super stoked about this one i wish i had played Dillashaw SU)
 
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