Official UFC on FOX 18 Thread

[Agent Mulder]

Havn't rewatched any of Masio Fullens fights but unibet has Not Alex Cacares ITD 1.87 / -115. Seems like there could be some value there.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Through hedging my Sage -265 bet, I currently have an $85 freeroll on Barberena. I plan on betting Barberena even more. I'm thinking of doing it sooner rather than later. I can't imagine his odds getting much better

Anyone care to guess line movement on this?

 

[mkess101]

Through hedging my Sage -265 bet, I currently have an $85 freeroll on Barberena. I plan on betting Barberena even more. I'm thinking of doing it sooner rather than later. I can't imagine his odds getting much better

Anyone care to guess line movement on this?

He's +360 now. I think it's more likely he gets bet down to +320 than it is Sage gets bet and Barb hits +400. Sage has all the hype of course but sharps saw his last fight and how he was laid on for a round by the Pfist. They know there's holes in his game. Maybe Barb isn't the guy to expose them but Pfister isn't exactly a world beater either. Total guess, but I think at worst the sharp $ coming in on Barb will offset people sticking Sage in parlays and the line won't move much.

 

[EzFlyer]

LOL go rewatch the fights where AJ has gotten tired. I hate saying guys "quit", but he...puts up VERY little resistance when he's tired. If he looks really tired heading into rd 4 I will be hammering Bader via live bet if odds are even decent. Even if Bader is behind on the cards.

oh, AJ definitely has "F this..." in his fight repertoire

 

[EzFlyer]

Through hedging my Sage -265 bet, I currently have an $85 freeroll on Barberena. I plan on betting Barberena even more. I'm thinking of doing it sooner rather than later. I can't imagine his odds getting much better

Anyone care to guess line movement on this?

i'm gonna be betting barb in some fashion (only have o1.5 at present) -- i suspect it climbs, actually.. sage has a way bigger name etc right now. don't forget weigh-in's, sage gonna be cut as hell, etc. parlay city.

planning a fight-night bet on barb, i THINK that'll be highest line

 

[Joseph Budden]

Already on Barb by dec +610

 

[mkess101]

i'm gonna be betting barb in some fashion (only have o1.5 at present) -- i suspect it climbs, actually.. sage has a way bigger name etc right now. don't forget weigh-in's, sage gonna be cut as hell, etc. parlay city.

planning a fight-night bet on barb, i THINK that'll be highest line

Man I gotta think there will be a lot of us out there watching the lines and betting Barb each time we see it jump a little. Maybe you're right and it won't offset all the other stuff. I've been better at betting fights than predicting line moves, so maybe I'll wait a little before I bet Barb.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Already on Barb by dec +610

IDK man. Barb +360 Is already good as it is. Sage Has never been in deep waters or fought against a tough and gritty fighter like Barb who I suspect has the better cardio. I'm going to be scouting Barb R3 HARD. Basically all of his wins are finishes and they are all late

 

[Joseph Budden]

IDK man. Barb +360 Is already good as it is. Sage Has never been in deep waters or fought against a tough and gritty fighter like Barb who I suspect has the better cardio. I'm going to be scouting Barb R3 HARD. Basically all of his wins are finishes and they are all late

Yeah not a bad idea betting the late finish. It's a small bet on the dec line cause I though money would come in on him a bit and think that's most likely way he wins. I was wrong. If the night is going well I'll hit his money line for more

 

[Jae Gibbz]

i'm gonna be betting barb in some fashion (only have o1.5 at present) -- i suspect it climbs, actually.. sage has a way bigger name etc right now. don't forget weigh-in's, sage gonna be cut as hell, etc. parlay city.

planning a fight-night bet on barb, i THINK that'll be highest line

Man I gotta think there will be a lot of us out there watching the lines and betting Barb each time we see it jump a little. Maybe you're right and it won't offset all the other stuff. I've been better at betting fights than predicting line moves, so maybe I'll wait a little before I bet Barb.

I really have no idea, honestly. However, I would be surprised if Barb's line got ALOT better

 

[Sham5916910]

Saturday 10pm could not come anytime sooner, if not to see aj get the ko lol

how did you play aj anyhow su or via ko with that saff parlay ?

I think it still hits but its a legit worry, if it was 3 rounds then even id play that parlay but 5 rounds is just a bit more advantage in bader's game plan and style.

I think everyone has pretty much nailed most b/ds and on similar pages though in how the fights may go on this event!

Took him SU i dont like going big on props even tho AJ sub or dec are unlikely just a rule i have. Hopefully its over inside two for the heart!

 

[Joseph Budden]

Brown's coach reminds me of MC Ride from the greatest band of all time, Death Grips

Might bet Brown for this reason

 

[vkram]

Thoughts on:

Not Caceres ITD @ -115
Not Brown ITD @ -118

???

 

[EzFlyer]

i like the brown one, i think, vkram. in particular i wish i did more on dwyer at opener, that line was weird. still weird, imo.

no f'ing clue on caceres-fullen

 

[mkess101]

Thoughts on:

Not Caceres ITD @ -115
Not Brown ITD @ -118

???

5d has not Caceras itd at -124. I was thinking maybe the play for this fight was to wait for Caceras by sub line to come out and if it's decent hit that and then hedge with Fullen ML. Caceras has a super slick sub game but also accepts bottom super easily. If he doesn't lock up the sub I think there's a very good chance he loses outright.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Hmm. I do kinda like that Not Caceres itd line. Also see value in Masio by dec +475

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Caceres is moving up to 145 for this fight, by the way

 

[null]

Rothwell wins by 3 round decision now up from +647 to +745. I added another half unit.

 

[mkess101]

Rothwell wins by 3 round decision now up from +647 to +745. I added another half unit.

That seems about right to me honestly. 35 pro wins for Rothwell only 3 went to the cards. Barnett is tougher and the fight should be closer than most of those guys but I think +700 sounds about right.

 

[null]

That seems about right to me honestly. 35 pro wins for Rothwell only 3 went to the cards. Barnett is tougher and the fight should be closer than most of those guys but I think +700 sounds about right.

Sounds right to me too because I think it's significantly more likely than the odds impute and I want that big payout.