Official UFN 59 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

[Jeffplsgo]

Mate I think the sharp move is to pass this fight , you say Anderson Silva should be -900 and prior him getting his leg broken off I would of agreed with you, but the long layoff and serious injury make getting an accurate gauge on how he will look impossible.

I'm not trying to make a case for betting Diaz but I think you will find much better -400 priced legs of a parlay than Silva

Damn that's cold ninja

 

[cs02132]

edit

 

[cs02132]

Spoiler

Soccer:

Joachim Low to be awarded coach of the year this sunday at -300! Amazing line IMO.

Spoiler

i should have bet james to win goal of the year, it was sitting at -199 for weeks and now its at -360.

what are you going to do with this? straight ML bet? its -260 on my book, you think its worth a ML bet? ancelotti is the only other coach that could win

i need to start coming in this thread during the day i always seem to miss good NBA picks that i can blindly tail lol

 

[ninjadeathcult]

Damn that's cold ninja

 

[PuertoRican]

[YT]wElT2YyDDUc[/YT]

 

[Sham5916910]

Do you guys think Wade, Hall and GOAT by KO for evens return is a pretty safe bet?

 

[ivanilich]

Spoiler

i should have bet james to win goal of the year, it was sitting at -199 for weeks and now its at -360.

what are you going to do with this? straight ML bet? its -260 on my book, you think its worth a ML bet? ancelotti is the only other coach that could win

Spoiler

I did a straight bet to win 0.5u.

Not sure about James' goal. I have a feeling it could go to Van Persie.

 

[Ukram]

[YT]wElT2YyDDUc[/YT]

So bones still gets to keep his belt and the dc fight is a win for him it looks ?

 

[Ukram]

Was thinking earlier how posters, bettors, and bookies alike utterly disrespected Cowboy as he dropped all way up -135 by fight time vs. Jury. I mean, when you think about it, it is fucking insane. FFS, what had Jury ever accomplished to be within striking distance (line wise) vs. a fighter who has fought and beat the absolute best LW fighters since 2007. What's more, people were acting as if Cowboy were just a stand-up fighter, a one dimensional striker akin to John Makdessi or LW version of Wonderboy Thompson if you will, and his only route to victory was sprawl and brawl or else fall victim to the vaunted submission game that is Jury-Jujitsu. As if Cowboy had no jitz himself lol Furthermore, w/ Cowboy we have saw sooooooooooooooo much fight footage from him -- his granite chin, his amazing striking, and his BJJ skills that are IMO as good as any 155er in the UFC today -- he has 16 submission victories to buttress my claim. But I digress.

Now, that Cowboy is facing Bendo, a fighter who he does catch up unfavorably against, posters and bettors are inclined to bet him. Cue Twilight Zone music :wink:

The jury-jitsu hype will live on no more

Bendo decision or cowboy straight does sound good, am wondering if we will see a furious bendo like against clay since he will need it against cowboy. Great fight regardless.

 

[Ukram]

I am never touching Howard again after he fucked me against Ebersole by not pulling the trigger in the third.

it hurt : (

It still pains... doomsday just had to throw a few leg kicks in r3.

Someone mentioned the over 2.5 or fight goes to decision line which sounds interesting but having been stung before I just don't fancy betting on that fight both will probably flake in r3 although perhaps that makes the goes to decision play more tempting lol

 

[Ukram]

Its begun....

http://forums.sherdog.com/forums/f2...now-flurries-2906257/showthread.php?t=2906257

 

[cdnbaron]

Not related to this specific card, but here are some articles I compiled based on betting information from 2014.

Basic 2014 Betting Stats by Promotion

How Accurate are the Odds?

Top 50 Upsets of 2014 (based on betting odds)

Ten Most Profitable UFC Fighters of 2014

Ten Least Profitable UFC Fighters of 2014

Anything else you guys might be interested in knowing from a betting perspective in 2014? I'll see if I can throw it together. I've got a couple more articles I'm working on and I can share those as well when they get posted.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

No way, Hendo's grappling is completely ass at this point. He could barely bend his knees for a take down vs Shogun. And Mousasi's fight vs King Mo was years ago, and he already showed improved TDD vs St. Preux quite awhile ago. Mousasi is lock-city for me, I'll be parlaying him with tons of shit. Same confidence level as Rockhold vs Bisping.

Even Hendo's proverbial puncher's chance is greatly diminished because Mousasi has a rock-solid chin and defense.

I think Moose eats Hendo p, ust makes im look old. I always thought Hendo perormed DFAR worse at 185 and his wins/losses bolster my claim. Specifically,

specifically losses to Jake Shields in Strikeforce and then even in his absolute prime when he fought in Pride he had victories over Yuki Kondo and Murilo Bustamante which were "wins" in name only as many thought he lost. Indeed, both were split decision victories, and I thought he certainly dropped the decision to Bustamante and his win over Kondo was suspect as well IIRC -- this was far by before he gained notoriety for his fabeled H-bomb and was affectionately known as "Decision Dan" which seems totally ironic today. Also he struggled with Rich Franklin in a fight a lot of people thought that Franklin had won.

Anyways, my point is, 185 Dan has not fought at the optimum level and against someone like Mousasi who is in his prime I think he'll look old and slow. Worse still, the weight cut will be very difficult at his age and I see this as a desperation move to save a dying career from an old man who hasn't evolved with the game. I
don't see him having too much success at MW & think Moose prolly pulls the plug n his career life support.

Spoiler

Soccer:

Joachim Low to be awarded coach of the year this sunday at -300! Amazing line IMO.

...

Spoiler

So, how confident are you with this pick iva? I was able to get it at -260 and 1.5u it
Should I add more?
thx for the tip!

Fair points for sure, though I think less of Glenn Johnson than you do I think. Tarver was a legit force, Johnson was a good fighter but a guy that Roy would have just clowned a couple years earlier.

Completely agree about his weight gain for the Ruiz fight. He was still totally ripped, and adding muscle and then trying to get rid of it is brutal on the body.

Again, Silva is 41 though. And maybe more than any MMA fighter in history, he's relied on speed and reflexes. And those are the first things to go with age. Unlike Randy, Silva isn't a grinder who will just outwork and outgut guys for W's. He NEEDS that speed and those reflexes to be successful with his style of fighting, and I'm not convince they're still even close to what they were a couple years ago.

Father Time=still undefeated.

Nick has shown he can get blasted by HUGE shots and recover too. While obviously far from the fighter Silva is, I'd argue Paul Daley does have as much power and he landed flush on Nick yet Nick still recovered fine and came back to win easily.

Just a couple of small points I have to clarify. First off, Silva is not 41 years old, he's "only" 39. Second, while Paul Daley hits hard, he's much smaller than Anderson is and Semtex has had an above average career -- even losing a sriking battle o the old ass Kaz Misaki. However, my main point bone of contention with the "Anderson is too old" logic is that Nick Diaz is not a fast fighter himself and isn't going going to be the one to make Anderson's reflexes look slow. Now if Anderson was fighting a uy like Luke Rockhold I would 100% agree.

 

[cs02132]

...

Spoiler

So, how confident are you with this pick iva? I was able to get it at -260 and 1.5u it
Should I add more?
thx for the tip!

I just did to win 1u. Loew SHOULD win this. Ancelotti is the only other coach that has a chance imo. Pretty sure the press votes for these so it's up to them if they think winning the world cup is worth more than a 10th European cup (I think it is)

 

[jerryisgood]

I had a dream that Diaz pulled out and Yoel Romero stepped in as a late replacement. I wonder how that would look, haha.

 

[ivanilich]

Spoiler

So, how confident are you with this pick iva? I was able to get it at -260 and 1.5u it
Should I add more?
thx for the tip!

Spoiler

Confident, but not crazy about it. It might go for Anceloti. It happened in 2010, when Del Bosque/Spain won the world cup but the coach of the year was Mourinho/Internationale. However, it was a quite different context. Del Bosque's Spain struggled a lot in a not much exciting WC while Mourinho managed to win a treble (champions league, national championship and cup) beating decisively one of the strongest squads in history in Messi/Xavi/Iniesta's Barcelona. This year, Ancelotti struggled to win the CL, lost the national championship to Simeone while Low's Germany was responsable for that historical 7-1 vs Brazil in Brazil. It seems a no brainer, but when voting is a matter you never know. I made a straight bet to win 0.5u and a parlay with Connor, Mousasi, Anderson for 1u.

 

[ivanilich]

Not related to this specific card, but here are some articles I compiled based on betting information from 2014.

Basic 2014 Betting Stats by Promotion

How Accurate are the Odds?

Top 50 Upsets of 2014 (based on betting odds)

Ten Most Profitable UFC Fighters of 2014

Ten Least Profitable UFC Fighters of 2014

Anything else you guys might be interested in knowing from a betting perspective in 2014? I'll see if I can throw it together. I've got a couple more articles I'm working on and I can share those as well when they get posted.

Nice articles. Although I picked 4 of the biggest underdogs of the year, it looks like I lost money on 80% of the favs who lost the other 46 fights hahah

 

[Almirante]

Tibau [-145] (1.45u to win 1u)
NOT McGregor R1 [+140] (1u to win 1.4u)

Soriano [+130] (1u to win 1.3u)
Tibau [-125] (1.25u to win 1u)
Wade ITD [-124] (1.24u to win 1u)

 

[cdnbaron]

Nice articles. Although I picked 4 of the biggest underdogs of the year, it looks like I lost money on 80% of the favs who lost the other 46 fights hahah

Thanks man.

I think I counted and I was on 9 of the 50 dogs, but I was on 7 of the faves too, so it all evens out in the end. I tend to stay away from big faves for the most part, but we all get caught once in a while.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

1/18/2015 10:00 PM UFC Fighting 1302 Gleison Tibau* -125 vs Norman Parke
Risking $125.00 To Win $100.00

1/18/2015 10:00 PM UFC Fighting 1302 Gleison Tibau* -125 vs Norman Parke
Risking $125.00 To Win $100.00

And I got him as the last leg in a parlay, $35 to win $216. Seems like a good price. Sort of feels like a similar scenario as Cowboy/Jury where we're getting surprisingly good odds on the veteran who should be better in most aspects. Tibau is a bit less reliable than cowboy of course, but still. Even odds plays are pretty good moneymakers in general imo.