Official UFN 61 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

[PuertoRican]

ufn 61 results

Spoiler

UFN 61 Net: +519.97
Mir: 0 for 92 / O1.5: 50 for 50
Barboza +100: 265 for 265 / Barboza DEC: 35 for 77 / DEC: 100 for 50 / FOTN: 50 for 50
Mutante: 150 parlays / Mutante SUB: 20 for 109
Khabilov: 0 for 122.77 -- 200 parlays / DEC: 100 for 50 / Martins: 0 for 195 / Martins +3.5: 50 for 73.50 / Martins SUB: 10 for 107.80
Saenz: 0.01 for 45.61
Ponzinibbio +171: 302 for 517.04 / Ponz +3.5: 120 for 100
Reneau +190: 100 for 190 / FOTN: 20 for 250
Macario: 100 parlay / O1.5: 0 for 17.50
Trator -195: 156 for 80 / Trator DEC: 40 for 98 / O2.5: 55 for 50
Oliveira -112: 350 for 312.57
Gibson -226: 150 for 66.39
Jorge DEC: 50 for 155 / O2.5: 50 for 52.50
props
DEC O5.5: 32 for 48.32
DEC O6.5: 10 for 41
DEC O7.5: 8 for 97.84
parlays
100 for 93.95 khabilov -245 & mutante -265
100 for 94.98 khabilov -245 & macario -260
50 for 52.77 mutante -340 & krause -170 (ufc 184)
---

-maybe should've let mir bet ride. it's ok to gamble a little.
-HUGE missed opportunity on saenz. i kept being indecisive. barely won anything.
-square bet on trator

but w/these regrets and some more, still came out decently ahead. not so bad.

Congrats.

Looks like no one got FOTN. They stuck with POTN across the board: Frank Mir, Sam Alvey, Marion Reneau and Matt Dwyer.

Only semi surprised Michael Johnson didn't get POTN, since he won all 3 rounds against Barboza, and really opened up peoples eyes to what he can do. Dwyer's KO was cool, but it didn't really tell us much.

Dam khalidov is not the guy I thought he was. After that legender suplex assault in his debut he has tailed off.

You mean Khabilov, and I agree.

Khalidov on the other hand, is still legit.

 

[Inspector 2211]

I bet on Bigfoot ko and mir itd. It paid well

 

[ninjadeathcult]

Derrick Lewis -500 ish seems like free money for on 20 cents in the dollar. Or a safe as house parlay leg

This will be brutal . I felt uneasy watching Potts fights in the UFC . They felt more like the feeling when you watch one of those street fight videos where one guy has no idea what he is doing goes against a Big black guy you beats the shit out of him. You feel sorry for him and hope he doesn't get hurt too bad.

Derrick Lewis is that big black guy and Ruan Potts is that white guy in over his head that we should feel sorry for. Its morally questionable making this fight to begin with.

Potts will get a concussion and his walking papers very shortly.

 

[KampSiver]

Derrick Lewis -500 ish seems like free money for on 20 cents in the dollar. Or a safe as house parlay leg

This will be brutal . I felt uneasy watching Potts fights in the UFC . They felt more like the feeling when you watch one of those street fight videos where one guy has no idea what he is doing goes against a Big black guy you beats the shit out of him. You feel sorry for him and hope he doesn't get hurt too bad.

Derrick Lewis is that big black guy and Ruan Potts is that white guy in over his head that we should feel sorry for. Its morally questionable making this fight to begin with.

Potts will get a concussion and his walking papers very shortly.

I need to rewatch some tape. However +300 or more on a Heavyweight vs. a Heavyweight that I think is mid-tier is always enticing.. My gut here says take the plus odds.. However all I remember if vague recalling of Potts ground and pounding out ((Pat Barry IIRC) and then vaguely recalling Lewis being knocked out by ((Mitrione IIRC).. I'm just guessing on my recollections there, and need to rewatch some fights, but IMO betting high price heavyweights is almost always a bad bet. It's by far the most unpredictable weight division in MMA as they all have just about enough knockout power to potentially win, therefore high priced dogs usually have decent value.. Unlike Lightweight or welterweight where the finishing power is not near as much and the fights are more predictable.

but I'm just going on memory here and may change my mind after some tape watchin. :redface:

 

[Turtleguard]

Yea not sure I like Lewis at 500 aside from maybe part of a parlay. Anywho, I managed to win a little over 100 on KM, had a 1v1 vs el frito bandito, hope it wasnt one of u guys lol

 

[EckY]

Never betting on a card I cant watch live again. Fucking hate these Sunday events when im down here in South Africa, had an early morning meeting today so couldnt watch and usually make most my money from livebetting with MMA, will not make that mistake again.

 

[EckY]

For Derrick Lewis, I would be all over Lewis r1 and Lewis KO, no way Potts even makes it to a decision never mind winning it. Can see it being a lot like the Soa fight.

 

[arrelione]

I had such a fucking horrible day yesterday with both soccer and the prelims in ufc. So I tilt added more to already existing bets on Mir Johnson Martins Ponzonibo and parlayed them all together for a fucking great end to the week.

Jesus, never have I seen so many dogs win before.

 

[Jeffplsgo]

I need to rewatch some tape. However +300 or more on a Heavyweight vs. a Heavyweight that I think is mid-tier is always enticing.. My gut here says take the plus odds.. However all I remember if vague recalling of Potts ground and pounding out ((Pat Barry IIRC) and then vaguely recalling Lewis being knocked out by ((Mitrione IIRC).. I'm just guessing on my recollections there, and need to rewatch some fights, but IMO betting high price heavyweights is almost always a bad bet. It's by far the most unpredictable weight division in MMA as they all have just about enough knockout power to potentially win, therefore high priced dogs usually have decent value.. Unlike Lightweight or welterweight where the finishing power is not near as much and the fights are more predictable.

but I'm just going on memory here and may change my mind after some tape watchin. :redface:

I think you should go watch some tape my man

 

[Oblivian]

My results below + new thread here: http://forums.sherdog.com/forums/f2/official-ufc-184-betting-thread-post-your-bets-2945461/

Same drill as always - post bets, discuss bets/matchups, and other sports in spoilers.

Spoiler

I will probably be betting this event very small.

Singles
Alcantara: $17.50 to win $5.56 Loss
Gibson: $12.50 to win $5.95 Loss
Michael Johnson: $7.50 to win $9.75 $17.25
Mir: $3.75 to win $8.44 $12.19
Reneau: $3.75 to win $6.56 $10.31
Ponzinibbio: $2.50 to win $4 $6.50
Dwyer: $1.25 to win $3 $4.25
Martins: $1.25 to win $4.50 $5.75

Risk of $50 $56.25

Parlays
Mir/Bigfoot ITD + Alvey/Ferreira starts 2 + Reneau/Andrade starts 2: $3.75 to win $3.08 Loss
Mir/Bigfoot ITD + Waldburger/Oliveira ITD + Shockley/Jorge starts 2: $2.50 to win $2.49 $3.93
Field over Spieth (Northern Trust) + Torre +3.5 points: $2.50 to win $2.43 $4.93
Alvey/Ferreira starts 2 + Mir/Bigfoot doesn't start 5: $2.50 to win $1.88 Loss
Field over Delaet (Northern Trust) + Mir/Bigfoot won't start 4 + Not Khabilov ITD + Alcantara (-3.5): $1.25 to win $2.33 Loss

Risk of $12.50 $8.86

TOTAL RISK OF $62.50 $65.11

TOTALS FOR 2015: Initial Risk was $95, Running total is $165.37 Running Profit: $70.37 (Approximate ROI for year 15.62%)
TOTALS FOR 2014: Initial Risk was $127.50 Running Total is $148.35 Running Profit = $20.85 (Approximate ROI for year 0.74%)
TOTALS FOR 2013: Initial Risk was $232.50, Running total is $583.75 Running Profit = $351.25 (Approximate ROI for year: 9.34%)
TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2014: $29 into $2626.75 Total Profit = $2597.75 (Approximate ROI: 14.082%)