Pre-fight Discussion: UFC Fight Night 239 Tuivasa vs. Tybura Sat. March 16 4pm et ESPN+

Planning to watch

  • All of it

    Votes: 7 28.0%
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    Votes: 7 28.0%
  • Some of it

    Votes: 11 44.0%

  • Total voters
    25
Suggested once to an ex cold pack, heating pad, if that doesn't work then dry ice or a trip to the sun lol!
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Storylines: UFC Fight Night 239​

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BRIAN KNAPP MAR 13, 2024 COMMENTS

No one understands the volatile nature of the Ultimate Fighting Championshipheavyweight division any better at this point than Tai Tuivasa.

“Bam Bam” will seek to end a troubling three-fight winning streak when he locks horns with former M-1 Global champion Marcin Tybura in the UFC Fight Night 239headliner this Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Tuivasa—the man who introduced “shoey” to the mixed martial arts lexicon—had positioned himself for a potential run at contention prior to his current skid, with consecutive knockouts ofStefan Struve, Harry Hunsucker, Greg Hardy, Augusto Sakai and Derrick Lewis. Then off came the wheels. Tybura, meanwhile, has won seven of his past nine bouts. However, the 38-year-old Pole finds himself on the rebound following a 73-second technical knockout loss to Tom Aspinall at UFC Fight Night 224 on July 22. Tybura owns an 11-7 record in the UFC.

The Tuivasa-Tybura showdown and its resulting fallout for the heavyweight division is but one storyline to watch at UFC Fight Night 239. Here are three more:

Late in the Game​

Ovince St. Preux has given blood, sweat and tears to the sport over the course of his 15-plus years as a professional mixed martial artist. Now 40 and with 43 fights worth of mileage on the odometer, he can probably see the light at the end of the tunnel. St. Preux draws his 27th assignment inside the Octagon when he confronts Kennedy Nzechukwu in a three-round light heavyweight showcase. “OSP” has lost seven of his past 11 bouts, including a 49-second knockout loss to former Professional Fighters League champion Philipe Lins in his most recent outing at UFC Fight Night 219 a little more than a year ago. The 6-foot-5 Nzechukwu—he of the 83-inch reach—poses plenty of problems, especially from a physical standpoint. A two-time Dana White’s Contender Series, the “American Savage” last suited up on Aug. 5, when he succumbed to first-round punches from Dustin Jacoby at UFC on ESPN 50. The setback closed the book on Nzechukwu’s three-fight winning streak. Can St. Preux hold off Father Time once more?

Familiar Faces​

Top 10-ranked women’s bantamweights are booked opposite one another as part of the main draw, as Macy Chiasson faces Pannie Kianzad in a rematch of “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 28 final. Chiasson subdued the former Cage Warriors Fighting Championship titleholder with a rear-naked choke in the first round of their November 2018 pairing, thus securing the coveted “six-figure contract.” The Fortis MMA export boasts a 6-3 record across her nine appearances in the UFC, her tenure highlighted by victories over Sarah Moras, Marion Reneau and Norma Dumont. Chiasson has not fought since being felled by an Irene Aldana upkick to the body at UFC 279 on Sept. 10, 2022. She has never suffered back-to-back defeats. Kianzad, meanwhile, operates out of the Arte Suave outfit in Copenhagen, Denmark, where longtime coach Nikolai Koubti oversees her training. The 34-year-old Iranian-born Swede last competed on July 22, when she wound up on the wrong side of a unanimous decision against Ketlen Vieira at UFC Fight Night 224. Kianzad’s past nine fights have all gone the distance. Will Chiasson have enough tricks up her sleeve to make sure history repeats itself?

Youth Movement​

Isaac Dulgarian has the look of a potential star in the featherweight division. The undefeated Factory X prospect draws perhaps his toughest test to date when he does battle with Christian Rodriguez in a featured attraction at 145 pounds. Dulgarian, 27, has stopped all six of his opponents inside one round. He made his promotional debut at UFC on ESPN 51, where he turned away Francis Marshall with punches and elbows 4:48 into their Aug. 12 encounter. A decorated amateur wrestler, Dulgarian was a national finalist as a true freshman at Notre Dame College in Euclid, Ohio, before he transferred to the University of Nebraska at Kearney and eventually chose to pursue MMA. Rodriguez has built some hype of his own. The Roufusportstandout has rattled off consecutive victories over Joshua Weems, Raul Rosas Jr. and Cameron Saaiman since his unanimous decision loss to Jonathan Pearce at UFC Fight Night 201 in February 2022. Seven of Rodriguez’s 10 career wins have resulted in finishes. Is this where Dulgarian begins his metamorphosis from blue-chip talent to possible contender?

 
The main event should be sloppy fun.

Isaac Dulgarian has an impressive resume. According the article by Bryan Knapp he has stopped all six of his opponents inside the first round. Tuning to see if he can make it seven in a row.

Chiasson should make easy work of Kianzad. Look for a finish.
 

Preview: UFC Fight Night 239 ‘Tuivasa vs. Tybura’​

Tuivasa vs. Tybura​

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TOM FEELY MAR 14, 2024 COMMENTS

Make way for the UFC 299 hangover, as the Ultimate Fighting Championship follows up that memorable card with back-to-back trips to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The UFC Fight Night 239 headliner on Saturday should be enjoyable, as heavyweights Tai Tuivasa and Marcin Tybura square off in a fight that should be over quickly and definitively. There is not much in terms of stakes beyond the main event—the lone other ranked bout sees bantamweights Pannie Kianzad and Macy Chiasson run back their 2018 final of “The Ultimate Fighter”—but there are some intriguing prospects to watch. Co-headliners Bryan Battle and Ange Loosa have each impressed during their UFC runs, while featherweight Isaac Dulgarian has looked absolutely electric. From there, the opener between Gerald Meerschaert and Bryan Barberena comes off as a fun bit of matchmaking between two veterans who are usually physically overmatched.

Now to the UFC Fight Night 239 “Tuivasa vs. Tybura” preview:

Heavyweights​

#9 HW | Tai Tuivasa (14-6, 8-6 UFC) vs. #10 HW | Marcin Tybura (24-8, 11-7 UFC)

ODDS: Tuivasa (-122), Tybura (+105)

Heavyweight careers tend to have ebbs and flows, and Tuivasa currently finds himself trying to turn around from a clear down point. “Bam Bam” came to the UFC in 2017 as an interesting but raw prospect, a knockout artist whose deceptive athleticism allowed him to quickly overwhelm his opposition. Tuivasa could have used some time to develop his game, but with his natural charisma and the UFC always on the hunt for stars in his native Australia, he got rushed into the deep end. It was only about a year until Tuivasa found himself in a main event against Junior dos Santos—a knockout loss that was the start of a three-fight losing streak that had the Australian clearly on the cut line. After taking a year off to recover and retool, Tuivasa looked much improved in a 2020 victory over Stefan Struve, showing some newfound patience and new ideas beyond just swinging into a brawl. It is difficult to call Tuivasa a technical marvel, as his success usually does come down to his ability to outpunch his opponent at the end of the day, but it has been easier for him to get those exchanges on better terms, resulting in a five-fight winning streak that had Tuivasa on the verge of title contention in 2022. However, Tuivasa is now on another skid. Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov each figured to always be terrible matchups for Tuivasa due to their length and skill, while Sergei Pavlovich quickly beat him to the literal punch. Up next is a winnable but tricky fight against divisional stalwart Marcin Tybura, who continues to separate the wheat from the chaff as far as the heavyweight elite is concerned.

The heavyweight division typically centers around knockout power and durability, and Tybura has just about achieved the ceiling for a man who does not possess much of either, at least as far as the usual heavyweight level goes. Primarily a wrestler and grappler during a highly successful regional career, Poland’s “Tybur” made his UFC debut in 2016 and quickly ran into Tim Johnson, which served as a lesson that there would be some heavyweights that Tybura could not push around. That led him to a brief pivot as a bouncy striker, which wound up serving as a solid backup plan once Tybura shifted back to his wrestling ways. Tybura can outmaneuver and outlast some of the less skilled monoliths on the UFC roster and even find some submissions against opponents with the tendency to tire out or mentally implode. However, athletes with knockout power have always been difficult for Tybura to outmaneuver, and the read is that Tuivasa clears the bar of being able to blow this fight open. Tuivasa’s takedown defense is not particularly great, so a Tybura submission win is certainly on the table, but the bet is that it does not get that far. The pick is Tuivasa via first-round knockout.

Jump To »
Tuivasa vs. Tybura
Battle vs. Loosa
Nzechukwu vs. St. Preux
Dulgarian vs. Rodriguez
Chiasson vs. Kianzad
Meerschaert vs. Barberena
The Prelims
 
I tend to defend UFC a lot (mostly because shertards hate on everything) but this is a weak card. All things considered, it's still below average. I will try to watch all of it, but got stuff to do, might miss some fights
 


Who doesn’t love a heavyweight main event? The Ultimate Fighting Championship is banking on the appeal of two rugged men around 250 pounds or higher to slug it out and thrill the fans inside of the UFC Apex this Saturday in Las Vegas. The collision in the main event is one of the lone bouts on the billing with ranked competitors, and betting options are slim or risky because of some unknowns. Join the UFC Fight Night 239 edition of Prime Picks as we traverse the treacherous terrain of two T-named competitors in the main attraction, watching the weigh-ins closely as we suggest a few choice prop bets across the lineup.

Tai Tuivasa-Marcin Tybura Last Over 1.5 Rounds (-130)​


A few years back, defensive wrestling was the liability of Australia’s Tuivasa, who could not get everything going against names like Blagoy Ivanov and Sergey Spivak. Thanks largely to a swath of striking-first opponents, Tuivasa carved out a name for himself at heavyweight. Tuivasa found that his barroom brawl tactics would no longer suit his needs as the opposition rose to the Top 5 or a little beyond its confines. Getting punched out by Sergei Pavlovich and having his guts rearranged by Ciryl Gane were humbling moments, but Alexander Volkov having his way with “Bam Bam” on the feet before locking down a picture-perfect Ezekiel choke was very telling. Luckily for Tuivasa, Tybura can do some of those things; it just takes him a while.


Poland’s Tybura has still not quite shaken his inability to get out of the way of blitzing strikers within the first minute, but after he calms down, things tend to smooth out. Like Tuivasa, Tybura has struggled to beat any name past Alexander Romanov to comfortably slot him into the Top 10. Still, his wrestling has opened up opportunities on the feet to make what once was a liability now at least neutral ground. Tuivasa is fully capable of making this look easy. It would not surprise many if he marches down “Tybur” and slugs him in the chops to put him away in 45 seconds. Barring that early and genuine stoppage potential, the duration of this bout could extend and even reach the championship rounds.

Most of the wins in the Octagon for the 38-year-old Tybura have come via decision, which includes some more durable names like the aforementioned Spivak and Ivanov. It has been some time since Tybura has repeatedly wrangled adversaries down to the ground to keep them there and grind out a fight. Instead, Tybura has used the fence as the other half of his heavyweight sandwich, where he squeezes foes against the cage wall until their backs look like lunchmeat. This is another aspect of wrestling in which he has succeeded, beyond simply the lather-and-repeat takedown game, and it is one where he can wear someone down like a power-punching Tuivasa. It will likely be up to Tuivasa to break out of these exchanges or catch Tybura coming in to smash this play and his opponent’s face simultaneously. If he cannot get out of the grip of the Polish powerhouse, time will tick off the clock, and our box will be checked.


Macy Chiasson Wins by Decision (+105)​


A fair amount hinges on this pick: First and foremost, it centers on whether Chiasson can make bantamweight. It is far from guaranteed that the favored woman in rematch of “The Ultimate Fighter 28” final will make weight. If the fight stays together and does not transform into a catchweight, there is no pressure to bet on Chiasson replicating her success from 2018, only taking longer to get there. Opponent Pannie Kianzad has gone the distance in all eight of her matches since returning to the UFC in 2019, so if confidence in one fighter over the other is not great, be sure to attach Fight Goes the Distance at -310 to make a decent parlay of some other pick like Thiago Moises.

Both women have struggled the last few years, going 2-2 since 2021, but their losses tell slightly different stories. While Chiasson missed weight against Irene Aldana, she was likely up on the scorecards before taking a flush upkick to the liver to shut her down. On the other side of the equation, Kianzad was one step behind Ketlen Vieira and Raquel Pennington to put herself in the upper echelon of the bantamweight landscape, which displayed a clear ceiling on the Swede’s future. Despite five years in the UFC for each participant, their general skills have not transformed as much as they have been honed to a degree. The weaknesses are still prevalent, as Kianzad is susceptible to getting nullified on the mat, while Chiasson can be overwhelmed on the feet. This rematch, years in the making, might look similar to the first encounter, but it may last longer than before.

Gerald Meerschaert Wins Inside Distance (-105)​


Three things are absolute in this world: death, taxes and Prime Picks calling for a play on Meerschaert getting a finish in a fight. It does not matter if that line closes at +500 or if it is even money like now, as it is extremely valuable and worth pursuing. Against former welterweight Bryan Barberena, Meerschaert should have a size advantage and enough durability to work through Barberena’s seemingly exhausted but always aggressive “slug it out” approach. As Makhmud Muradov reminded fans less than a year ago, Barberena’s takedown defense is porous at best, and “GM3” can exploit that and put him on his back to either threaten with ground-and-pound or any number of submissions.

Unlike Dustin Poirier, Meerschaert can embody the “when in doubt, jump the guilly” method and succeed. The Kill Cliff Fight Club product is just two guillotine chokes shy of the UFC record, and he is not afraid of attempting one should he get pushed. If Barberena gets careless and presses the action too recklessly, bending over to throw strikes or ducking down to evade shots coming back his direction, Meerschaert could just as easily snatch up the maneuver he has landed seven times on his ledger. That weapon is just one of the many tools in the 36-year-old’s arsenal, and his diversity of attack, plus a 100% finish rate in the Octagon, makes a -105 prop bet on him getting the stoppage in a fight he is already favored the right call.

Josiane Nunes (-145)​


There is a real caveat to betting on this fight, and it is one that we suggest means waiting until Friday afternoon to place a wager: This bout is contested at 135 pounds. Both of these former featherweights will be cutting down to reach the 136-pound limit, and it is not a foregone conclusion that they will be able to make the mark. While Nunes is a fireplug at 5-foot-2, the taller, longer Chelsea Chandler has struggled to get down that low in the past. If they both make weight, bet Nunes. If the underdog misses, get in before the line swings more heavily in Nunes’ favor. The reason for the pick of this preliminary tilt is short and simple: Nunes likes hitting people, while Chandler does not like getting hit.

It was a very telling moment when Chandler turned tail and sprinted away from Norma Dumont when the Brazilian landed cleanly on her. It was the kind of display that some referees might have recognized as verbal surrender and waved off the contest. Still, at the very least, it eliminated any confidence a prognosticator could have about her durability and heart. At 30, even just seven fights into her career, the Cesar Gracie product is very likely in her final form, other than some minor adjustments here and there. Chandler would prefer to grapple first, and getting the short, stocky flamethrower on her back is no easy feat. With the power to put opponents down, plus a gas tank that can keep up a high pace and stellar volume for all three rounds, the line on Nunes is such that she is a solid option.
 
I just now noticed Beach Boy is on this card, he hasn't fought in awhile.

Also, Barbarino needs a win badly.
 
Card sucks ass balls and 90% of the card shouldn't even be in the UFC but......it starts at a decent hour so I'll probably catch it lol
 
Somehow Barbarena is the most compelling fight on a card...
 
I forgot that St Preux was even in the UFC!
 
I meant to do a proper write up earlier, but got distracted.

Pannie vs Macy..

I really like Pannie. I’ve been watching her since she joined Invicta in 2015. One of those girls that will never sniff a UFC TS. But, winning the belt isn’t the only reason I like certain fighters. Like Gillian.. She will never be champion but holds at least 3 UFC records. So win, or lose, I just like some fighters much more than others.

Macy is a big girl that would fight at FW if she could. She was beating Aldana handily when Aldana landed an upkick from the ground that caught Macy in the liver.. It was very fortuitous. I have to go with her here.

Macy by Decision.

McKenna vs Amorim..

9.5-10” reach advantage for Amorim. I went against the flow with this one.

Amorim by Decision.

I have Josiane over weight misser Chelsea. The miss was only 1/2 pound. It shouldn’t factor in much.

Josiane by Decision.

Mostly I have the favs in most of the fights, but not all. Just hoping for good fights with no controversy.

Enjoy the fights everybody.
 
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