Prime Picks: #UFC294 ‘Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2’

[Kowboy On Sherdog]

The Ultimate Fighting Championship found its tentpole show in the Middle East covered in petrol and on fire just a few weeks ahead of its happening. Making chicken salad out of chicken excrement, the card might actually be better off for the late replacements on the marquee. Plugging in a number of fighters who might struggle to enter the United States on Saturday at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, the resulting lineup sees a swath of big favorites with only one close bout on the sportsbooks. Join the UFC 294 edition of Prime Picks, where we echo a successful pick in the rematch, turn our collective noses up at a hefty 205-pound line, call an upset on the curtain-jerker and give it up for three matches that may not hear the final bell.

STRAIGHT-UP CASH
Islam Makhachev-Alexander Volkanovski Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds (-250)
Eight months ago, the UFC threw together a Makhachev-Volkanovski superfight that thrilled the masses and delivered a battle more competitive than all but the most ardent supporters predicted. The previous Prime Picks analysis suggested that it might be a closer bout than expected and that while there was some value on Volkanovski, the measure of time would be far more lucrative. In terms of duration, the betting line has shifted in favor of a lengthier match, but at these odds, it is still worth a full-throated effort to put down on the rematch running long.


Makhachev proved that his skills lived up to the hype with a complete performance against a pound-for-pound king in Volkanovski. The Russian did not simply have to rely on his wrestling to grind out a win, and his successes on the feet were frequent and significant. Even if “Alexander the Great” picked up the pace in the last round, it was not enough to get him the nod. Just a handful of days before the event, it is hard to imagine that Volkanovski will be able to push the pace late after 20 minutes of action. Still, even a Volkanovski who is coming off the couch should be a feared force for all men not named Makhachev. The Australian proved that he would not fall victim to any traps or get smoked by the standup; the weight difference ultimately proved to be the slight difference maker. Volkanovski is a highly intelligent fighter, and he can manage his gas tank well while not overextending himself in pursuit of a fruitless finish.

On paper, Volkanovski’s near-legendary conditioning may not be 100%, but the featherweight champion is the type of guy to stay near tip-top form even out of camp. It is no accident or hasty decision to take this fight with this much on the line. Volkanovski truly believes he is prepared to not only challenge for but also capture the lightweight throne against a man who beat him earlier this year. This provides confidence that Volkanovski will not fade at the first sign of struggle, like a first-round takedown against him that winds up with a few minutes of control time. No obvious mistakes come from either man, meaning that this has the makings of another encounter that will hear the final bell. If Volkanovski fades, Makhachev could rally and potentially smother his flagging foe with something like an arm-triangle choke, but as long as it hits 2:30 of Round 3, like it did in February, the rest is gravy.

STRAIGHT-UP PASS
Magomed Ankalaev (-355)
Sledding has been tough for Russia’s Ankalaev, who has faced off against a number of archetypes at light heavyweight. From wild sluggers who bypass their wrestling (Ion Cutelaba) to wild wrestlers who tend to forego their striking (Nikita Krylov) and several in between, Ankalaev has largely risen to the occasion every time out. A mental lapse ages ago against Paul Craig and a head-scratching set of scorecards that led to a draw with Jan Blachowicz have kept him from sitting in the chambers of the greatest fighters in the world. Pitted against him in this three-rounder will be the enigmatic Johnny Walker, whose size, strength and unpredictability make him a tough ask. With Walker finally seeming to turn the corner, a bet on the overwhelmingly favored Ankalaev should be one to pass up.

When competitors feature betting lines this high on their side, some savvy bettors may be better suited drilling down with prop bets about the method of victory. For Ankalaev, that might be a coinflip, which may be too much to risk: The stoppage is around -115, while the decision currently checks in at +215. Walker can be caught early, but the man from Dagestan does not have a penchant for quick stoppages of late. There is every possibility that Ankalaev fights to his greatest strength and grinds his way to victory, or he could decide to tangle with the enormous Walker at distance. Walker’s reach—he will be about seven inches longer in the arms and a few inches taller—can play a factor even if he likes to crash the pocket, provided he uses predictive offense when Ankalaev changes levels. Knees, elbows or any kind of weapon that does not put him off-balance or out of place can be levied against the Russian should takedowns become the preferred plan of attack. With Ankalaev at such a high betting line and Walker maintaining his own reasonable path to victory, there are better matchups to sink one’s hard-earned cash into.

DOG WILL HUNT
Bruno Silva (+235)
In his first appearance this year, Sharaputdin Magomedov will enter his UFC debut on an official 11-bout win streak. A number of additional matches took place in the mixed-rules promotion of Nashe Delo, which limits grappling to a hard time limit to make fights that are “more exciting.” As he worked his way towards the American-based league, Magomedov competed all over Asia, but his most recent win—an eight-second knockout—needs a bit of scrutiny. “Bullet,” a middleweight, defeated Kushal Vyas, a featherweight, in a horrible squash match that would not be permitted under any sanctioning body. Magomedov hits hard with his hands and feet, and his takedowns are nothing at which to sneeze. Despite some on-paper factors in his favor, the step up in competition from Vyas to even a deflated Silva is on par with Joe Soto going from Terrion Ware to T.J. Dillashaw in 2014.

It may be unfair to assume, but Silva has been a changed man since leaving Russian leagues and testing his might in an organization that tests for performance-enhancing substances. No longer carved out of marble, Silva’s frame has abandoned him even at the young age of 34. The jury is still out on his remaining power, as his knockout of shopworn Brad Tavares is not the feather in the cap it once was. Thankfully for Silva, he will not have to worry about any submission attempts coming his way, and the worst he will see on the ground is a flurry of fists. If Magomedov decides to try to make a statement with a flying knee out of the gate, Silva could very comfortably plant his feet and knock him out of the sky, a la Fedor Emelianenko to Andrei Arlovski. Silva is barely over .500 against UFC-level opposition, and this will be a litmus test to see if Magomedov can sink or swim. The under of 1.5 rounds is also in play at -110, as this could be a veritable car crash of fists and feet until one man falls down; and it will not take long for that to happen.

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