Tai vs Sergei & Holland vs Thompson

[The_Renaissance]

Two huge fights to be fair, for a UFN.

I'll go Holland by UD and Tuivasa by TKO, 3rd round.

 

['Suga Daddy']

Sergei grew up wrestling and trains with good grapplers. Overeem is basically a BJJ black belt in terms of his no gi ability he has submitted black belts before. The Reem fight Sergei looked bad but perhaps he was rocked more than it appeared and that is wht he looked so bad on the ground. With regards to Wonderboy I agree by decision

I do not see why Aspinall is so highly ranked. He is out for over a year now and we do not know how he would really do vs Blaydes, Gane, Sergei etc

He’s been out for 6 months legend…. And he beat Volkov in one round

 

[Jinx_AA]

both are tough to predict …. Wouldn’t bet big on these 2 - but I’d pick :

Sergei by knockout …. But tai can catch him aswell

Holland by knockout…. But wonder boy has the much better wins …. Can’t help but remember holland getting rocked and choked out By daukus who’s much weaker than wonder boy …. But I think it was a headbytt if I remember correctly

 

[Safton]

I like Wonderboy if it remains a friendly straightforward kickboxing match. Very few guys have had any amount of success matching him in that realm for 15 to 25 minutes. We're not that far removed from watching him put absolute clinics on Neal, Luque, and Masvidal after all. And Holland has been shown to have a brief spot of difficulty on the feet with someone similar in style to WB in Charlie Ontiveros, resorting to his grappling after getting smacked with flashy kicks.

Which brings me to my next point: if/when Holland mixes it up with takedowns, low kicks, exploiting his much longer reach against a guy used to being the lengthier fighter, and wild/unorthodox power shots he tends to throw (i.e. the same thing Pettis and Woodley caught WB with) then Holland can have more success and possibly even finish Thompson. But if he sticks to a conventional striking match, he is likely going to get out-pointed across five rounds.

And yes, I do think Holland will shoot on Thompson if it comes to that despite all the lip service. He shoots when he gets remotely uncomfortable on the feet. It's a well-established trend for him.

As for Tai vs. Sergei... probably Sergei. It's a volatile match-up by its very nature just because you have two guys with the nuclear option in either hand. Both have the ability to hurt one another. The reason I'm edging Pavlovich is due to all the other variables in his favor and against Bam Bam:

1.) Pavlovich will have a hilarious reach advantage of 9" and more importantly he seems to know how to use it based on his previous bouts -- he seems very aware of his distance management & range and is good at keeping his opponent right at the end of his own punches while making them swing at air.

2.) Pavlovich is a big, physically strong guy with a grappling pedigree in Greco-Roman wrestling and Combat Sambo. We haven't seen it inside the UFC, but he used it periodically on the regional scene to score body-lock takedowns and the like. It's safe to say it's probably in his back pocket and frankly considering Tai's deficient defensive grappling, one wouldn't need an elite wrestling game to get him down.

3.) Tai got brutally finished and sustained severe concussive damage to his head and body in early September. There will only be three months' separation between that fight and this one. When you factor in the training camp, sparring, etc. it means he effectively took no time off dedicated to recovery. That is incredibly worrying coming into this kind of match-up. His durability could be severely compromised. Why on Earth he didn't just wait for the Perth card is frankly beyond me.

Some other points -- durability between these two is probably a wash other than #3 above. Tai has been shown to be fairly hard to put away as evidenced by the Lewis fight and the fact that Gane had to throw the kitchen sink at him. JDS did TKO him, though. Sergei got TKO'd by Reem in his debut, but that was a unique situation in which he got his leg swept and ended up trapped against the fence eating bad GnP, unable to improve his position so the ref (justifiably) stopped the fight. All things considered, I'd rather trust Sergei's chin at this point -- relatively untested though it may be.

Bam Bam's only real X-factors here -- beyond his sheer doggedness and heart* -- are his calf kicks and clinch game. If he starts chopping the big man down early and often he could really compromise his footwork, his ability to generate power in his punches, and any potential takedowns. But I think Pavlovich probably finds his chin before that happens -- especially since his punching range is Tuivasa's kicking range. When it comes to the dirty-boxing and elbows on the inside, I could see him giving Sergei a few issues there -- but that's assuming he can consistently make it to the inside in one piece. Plus, again, Pavlovich is jacked, comes from a Greco-Roman base, and frequently trains with Romanov so he'll likely have answers for the clinch.


*Pavlovich has either been the hammer or the nail, never anywhere in between; he doesn't have the same proven ability to overcome adversity and maintain composure in a hard fight that Tai does.

 

[KingBeef]

Can’t help but remember holland getting rocked and choked out By daukus who’s much weaker than wonder boy

That fight was an NC because of the headbutt, and was also at a different weight class(Middleweight).

 

[KingBeef]

I gotta go with Holland in his match vs WB. Wonderboy hasn't looked good in a bit and hasn't finished an opponent in over 6 years. Holland will stand and bang if needed, but also has the Jiu Jitsu black belt. Holland is also the bigger and younger fighter here.