The line for Gaethje/Barboza to end in a finish was -550
- Thread starter blaseblah
- Start date
- Joined
- Jan 28, 2015
- Messages
- 3,416
- Reaction score
- 1,372
No it wasn't you goon. It was like -400 to end in a finish.
Edit-. I misread ur post. My bad sir.
Edit-. I misread ur post. My bad sir.
- Joined
- May 7, 2016
- Messages
- 42,438
- Reaction score
- 20,355
Thank you @Jackonfire for moving my thread out of the UFC section, as usual.
- Joined
- Jun 14, 2009
- Messages
- 66,439
- Reaction score
- 84,385
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2006
- Messages
- 43,754
- Reaction score
- 2,844
I mentioned this prior to the event. Rarely do I talk about value in a high favorite like that, but I gave it less than a 5% chance of going to decision. Honestly, I'd have give it probably a 1-2% chance.
A fight like that is far different than heavy hitting HWs (ex. Hunt vs. Bigfoot) who may just gas with not much happening. Gaethje thrives on coming forward even when he's hurt. Barboza is always looking to punish, and his kryptonite can be pressure. It had all of the makings for an early finish.
A fight like that is far different than heavy hitting HWs (ex. Hunt vs. Bigfoot) who may just gas with not much happening. Gaethje thrives on coming forward even when he's hurt. Barboza is always looking to punish, and his kryptonite can be pressure. It had all of the makings for an early finish.
- Joined
- Dec 28, 2015
- Messages
- 2,942
- Reaction score
- 978
what was your % for Francis/lewis going distance?
- Joined
- Dec 6, 2009
- Messages
- 5,181
- Reaction score
- 1,475
So you say...as soon as I'd decide to wager $550 just to win $100, another Ngannou/Derrick Lewis debacle would happen (yeah, I had Ngannou to win that and it would have completed a very profitable parlay). Easy to say that in hindsight. Crazy things happen in MMA.
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2006
- Messages
- 43,754
- Reaction score
- 2,844
Not near as high. It's not like Lewis hasn't gone late before that. I mean he went to the 4th with Hunt. At HW, it's just more likely to guys will stare at each other because they gas. Also, factor in 5 round vs. 3 round. My % wouldn't have been near as high on Gaethje/Barb inside 3.
- Joined
- Dec 28, 2015
- Messages
- 2,942
- Reaction score
- 978
then you mustve got about +600 or so for fight goes distance? I'm sure it was the last thing you thought, I'd give that a very high %
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2006
- Messages
- 43,754
- Reaction score
- 2,844
I'm not sure what you are trying to get at here. Gaethje/Barboza ITD was one of my largest plays in my 8 1/2 years of betting. I'm not someone who plays a lot of large favorites either. In fact, it's pretty rare you'd ever see me talking about value in a play that's above -300. This was the exception. You can see by my comments prior to the event. I had it less than 5% - and honestly, I was thinking an incredibly low chance (1-2%). I did not have Ngannou/Lewis anywhere near that - which is exactly what I said from my first response to you...
- Joined
- Jun 15, 2018
- Messages
- 3,304
- Reaction score
- 2,430
If you didn't have Ngannou/Lewis doesn't go the distance ranked as highly as Gaethje/Barboza not going the distance, I would venture you'd be in the very small minority. Both guys hit like a ton of bricks. I will never understand that fight in a million years.
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2006
- Messages
- 43,754
- Reaction score
- 2,844
Wrong. I mean they opened the ITD line of Ngannou/Lewis at -195 and it closed at it's highest point at -565. It averaged near -400 for longer than a week. Gaethje/Barboza opened at -385 and was pounded quick. Within an hour, it was down to -425 and then quickly to -445. It averaged out around -500 for several days and spiked as high as -570. There is no way in hell Gaethje/Barb would stay at -400 range as long as Ngannou/Lewis did.
- Joined
- Sep 24, 2007
- Messages
- 51,213
- Reaction score
- 21,213
Remember 3 rounds vs 5 though.
