The Ponies Thread (part 2)

[Sharkey]

I think I may have seen one of the worst pick 4 structures I've ever seen by someone a little while ago.

Leg 1 - single 5/2 ML favourite
Leg 2 - single 2/5 ML favourite
Leg 3 - ALL
Leg 4 - ALL

Terrible structuring since the guy is basically saying he has nothing to beat the public's choices in the first two races (one of those will be 1/5 if not lower and everybody will have it in the multi-race pools) and has no idea what's going to happen in the other two. He hasn't given himself an opportunity for an advantage in any single of those races, and in fact he's working from a big disadvantage in all four. He's basically betting on and hoping for as random a result possible in the last two races, which means that money he's betting on this sequence would probably be put to better use on the slot machines or something like that.

 

[Sharkey]

Holy shit have I ever geeked out and gone all nerdy "scientist" with this stuff over the past 6 months or so.

- available energy already shown by the horse and weighted on recently and rank
- further expected energy calculations based on pattern recognition and form cycle analysis
- potential energy based on four different readouts of race shapes (SpdE, SusE, SpdL, SusL)
- pace balance horse(s) and contrasting energy horse(s) based on those four readouts
- probability for both win and place based on pace balance and contrasting energy

...and that's what I do in the simplest terms I could possibly explain it in.

What the hell did I build here? Haha.

All because of my E2 angle basically and my looking to support the concepts behind it. Did I expand on that concept much? Jesus.

 

[gcoogan1]

Looking to tail some racing picks for tonight, anybody have any tips?

 

[Sharkey]

Looking to tail some racing picks for tonight, anybody have any tips?

My races have already been ran today, G, so I can't help you there.

I wished I could have a play planned in the Fountain of Youth race going on at Gulfstream due to the makeup of the pools, but the favourite in there is an unknown factor due to just the one race he had. I certainly don't want to back him in that spot as an unknown favourite since he hasn't backed that first race up yet. Nor do I want to bet against him either since he hasn't shown he can't back it up either.

 

[Sharkey]

I love this quote even if it's 30 years old;

"What I like to see are the books and programs by fellows such as Andrew Beyer and William Quirin, the experts. And don't get me wrong, these guys are experts. These people serve a purpose. Whether they're teaching the correct thing, I can't say. But for my purposes, speaking purely for myself, what they teach me is very important. And that is, whatever they say, do the exact opposite. That's a very valuable piece of information as far as I'm concerned. You need that. You cannot develop a pattern of success unless you know who the losers are. Once you know who the losers are, once you discern properly the pattern they are using, if you do everything but what they do, you will be successful. This is basically what I've done in handicapping."

- Buddy Alvarado

Yep. I still love that quote.

"This horse earned this speed figure. This horse was sired by this horse. This horse is ridden by this jockey. This horse is trained by this trainer. This horse finished here versus this other horse. This horse ran this fast in this recent workout."

That's the typical lingo used by public handicapper's in horse racing when they write/speak of their opinion on a race, and in turn it's also the lingo most of the public uses when they try to explain why they like a horse.

To quote again;

"You cannot develop a pattern of success unless you know who the losers are. Once you know who the losers are, once you discern properly the pattern they are using, if you do everything but what they do, you will be successful."

97%-98% of the people betting the ponies with some regularity lose money over the long run, and we know what handicapping techniques they're losing with because most of them deviate very little from what everybody else is doing.

 

[Sharkey]

I wished I could have a play planned in the Fountain of Youth race going on at Gulfstream due to the makeup of the pools, but the favourite in there is an unknown factor due to just the one race he had. I certainly don't want to back him in that spot as an unknown favourite since he hasn't backed that first race up yet. Nor do I want to bet against him either since he hasn't shown he can't back it up either.

And what do you know. I mention my old E2 angle earlier today and the FOY winner (at 9/1 odds) came into this race having exactly that, as well as having the top SF rating in the race (don't need a program to see either). Not sure how well he did on the other pace readouts of mine since I didn't bother doing the race beforehand due to the unknown with the favourite. But I'm sure the winner would have looked at least okay if I did. Probably better than okay with a quick glance. The horse that finished 2nd also looks like he was best suited to be the most likely counter energy horse in the race (again, with a quick glance without running the lines), and therefore stood the strongest chance of finishing in that 2nd spot.

The E2 rating a horse earned last race is easily the most influential number with my system just because of the way I have it weighed now. More important than any other single number on a horse's past performance page regardless of where you're looking. The horse's E2 rating last race is also most influential to my SF rating, which in turn might be my most important compounded rating, as it is it's own category and then it's also used heavily in another couple of compounded ratings (BT and PP). So yeah. That's what I did. Built a system balanced on a horse's last E2 rating basically and then supported it with other factors.

 

[Sharkey]

Holy shit have I ever geeked out and gone all nerdy "scientist" with this stuff over the past 6 months or so.

- available energy already shown by the horse and weighted on recently and rank
- further expected energy calculations based on pattern recognition and form cycle analysis
- potential energy based on four different readouts of race shapes (SpdE, SusE, SpdL, SusL)
- pace balance horse(s) and contrasting energy horse(s) based on those four readouts
- probability for both win and place based on pace balance and contrasting energy

...and that's what I do in the simplest terms I could possibly explain it in.

What the hell did I build here? Haha.

All because of my E2 angle basically and my looking to support the concepts behind it. Did I expand on that concept much? Jesus.

The E2 rating a horse earned last race is easily the most influential number with my system just because of the way I have it weighed now. More important than any other single number on a horse's past performance page regardless of where you're looking. The horse's E2 rating last race is also most influential to my SF rating, which in turn might be my most important compounded rating, as it is it's own category and then it's also used heavily in another couple of compounded ratings (BT and PP). So yeah. That's what I did. Built a system balanced on a horse's last E2 rating basically and then supported it with other factors.

Yep. That's my system in a nutshell, and with the factors that are most influential within it. I explained the concepts and reasoning behind them multiple times already. If even one person can use and understand these concepts with the height of horse racing season coming up then great. If not then that's great too.

But regardless, this thread is dead. So dead that it's become slightly embarrassing even attempting to keep it alive. Considering that and the fact that I've always wanted to say this...

End Thread?

Yes.

End Thread.

 

[Dooze]

Heads up for UK bettors.

Skybet are offering money back as cash rather than a free bet if you lose on the first race each day for Cheltenham this week. Pretty much just a free £20 bet (or £10 EW) on the 1:30. Put it on today and got £110 back with Klassical Dream, will have a look at what I fancy for tomorrow. Likely just going to stick to the classic of backing any horse that's got that Ruby Walsh/Mullins dream team combo.

 

[Mga223]

Been getting absolutely killed on betting horses lately.

Dno what I've changed or has change but am struggling lately

 

[Sharkey]

What I have for the three big Derby prep races this Saturday;

==========

G2 Wood Memorial (3:00);

#4 EP - 81.3, LP - 73.9, SP - 87.5, TT - 57.8, MP - 88.3, EL - 80.1, DP - 84.9, ELD - 68.7, SF - 94.1, BT - 103.1, AC - 133.7, PP - 167.8, AVG - 90.0/90.7/90.8/91.5 (28.5%/32.9%) = 2.5/1 (7/2 ML)
#1 EP - 81.9, LP - 69.8, SP - 85.2, TT - 56.6, MP - 85.8, EL - 78.3, DP - 84.1, ELD - 74.4, SF - 89.6, BT - 102.1, AC - 125.0, PP - 167.7, AVG - 88.2/88.4/88.7/88.8 (17.5%/18.6%) = 4.7/1 (9/2 ML)
#10 EP - 82.0, LP - 64.3, SP - 81.8, TT - 51.8, MP - 81.0, EL - 76.4, DP - 82.4, ELD - 76.6, SF - 90.8, BT - 103.9, AC - 108.4, PP - 166.0, AVG - 85.8/85.5/85.3/85.0 (9.4%/7.9%) = 9.7/1 (6/1 ML)
#5 EP - 81.5, LP - 64.4, SP - 81.6, TT - 53.3, MP - 81.3, EL - 75.8, DP - 82.1, ELD - 77.2, SF - 89.3, BT - 103.0, AC - 110.7, PP - 165.2, AVG - 85.7/85.4/85.4/85.1 (9.1%/8.1%) = 10.0/1 (8/1 ML)
#9 EP - 78.7, LP - 64.9, SP - 80.5, TT - 52.5, MP - 80.0, EL - 75.0, DP - 80.1, ELD - 77.3, SF - 86.8, BT - 101.2, AC - 110.5, PP - 160.4, AVG - 84.9/85.0/85.1/85.1 (7.9%/7.8%) = 11.6/1 (30/1 ML)
#3 EP - 79.6, LP - 63.0, SP - 79.8, TT - 55.8, MP - 80.1, EL - 73.4, DP - 80.2, ELD - 77.4, SF - 83.2, BT - 98.3, AC - 112.4, PP - 161.3, AVG - 84.2/83.8/84.2/83.8 (6.3%/6.0%) = 14.8/1 (6/1 ML)
#2 EP - 74.5, LP - 69.0, SP - 81.0, TT - 54.3, MP - 80.9, EL - 75.0, DP - 78.2, ELD - 67.9, SF - 83.2, BT - 94.2, AC - 120.0, PP - 154.2, AVG - 83.3/84.3/84.4/85.4 (6.0%/7.5%) = 15.6/1 (5/2 ML) *favourite*
#11 EP - 83.9, LP - 59.5, SP - 79.8, TT - 54.7, MP - 79.9, EL - 73.7, DP - 82.4, ELD - 68.7, SF - 84.0, BT - 95.3, AC - 105.0, PP - 167.9, AVG - 83.8/82.5/82.4/81.2 (5.2%/3.6%) = 18.3/1 (30/1 ML)
#7 EP - 84.9, LP - 67.2, SP - 85.1, TT - 50.3, MP - 83.8, EL - 79.9, DP - 85.5, ELD - 77.3, SF - 88.6, BT - 102.5, AC - 110.9, PP - 172.1, AVG - 82.8/82.7/82.5/82.3 (4.7%/4.1%) = 20.3/1 (20/1 ML)
#6 EP - 87.8, LP - 55.6, SP - 79.3, TT - 51.5, MP - 78.5, EL - 74.1, DP - 84.1, ELD - 59.7, SF - 81.4, BT - 89.4, AC - 93.5, PP - 173.7, AVG - 81.7/79.7/79.0/77.0 (2.9%/1.5%) = 33.5/1 (20/1 ML)
#8 EP - 79.8, LP - 58.8, SP - 77.3, TT - 50.5, MP - 76.2, EL - 72.6, DP - 79.1, ELD - 72.0, SF - 81.8, BT - 94.9, AC - 97.2, PP - 160.4, AVG - 80.4/79.7/79.5/78.8 (2.5%/1.9%) = 39.3/1 (30/1 ML)

==========

G2 Blue Grass Stakes (3:23);

#2 EP - 86.4, LP - 69.4, SP - 87.2, TT - 54.5, MP - 87.1, EL - 80.8, DP - 87.4, ELD - 78.5, SF - 91.3, BT - 105.2, AC - 121.0, PP - 175.5, AVG - 90.4/90.2/90.3/90.0 (23.6%/22.6%) = 3.2/1 (9/5 ML) *favourite*
#1 EP - 85.7, LP - 64.2, SP - 83.7, TT - 52.8, MP - 83.1, EL - 77.9, DP - 85.2, ELD - 72.7, SF - 110.0, BT - 117.2, AC - 109.7, PP - 172.7, AVG - 90.1/89.4/88.6/87.8 (20.7%/14.3%) = 3.8/1 (10/1 ML)
#3 EP - 80.0, LP - 71.3, SP - 85.2, TT - 56.4, MP - 85.6, EL - 78.3, DP - 83.1, ELD - 70.7, SF - 87.0, BT - 98.4, AC - 127.1, PP - 164.7, AVG - 87.5/88.0/88.3/88.8 (12.9%/15.5%) = 6.7/1 (5/1 ML)
#7 EP - 78.4, LP - 66.9, SP - 81.6, TT - 56.2, MP - 82.1, EL - 75.1, DP - 80.5, ELD - 74.5, SF - 86.5, BT - 99.7, AC - 119.5, PP - 160.5, AVG - 85.9/86.1/86.4/86.6 (8.5%/9.5%) = 10.7/1 (15/1 ML)
#8 EP - 76.7, LP - 69.6, SP - 82.5, TT - 59.4, MP - 83.9, EL - 75.0, DP - 80.1, ELD - 69.4, SF - 83.9, BT - 95.4, AC - 128.9, PP - 158.4, AVG - 85.7/86.2/86.8/87.3 (8.4%/10.9%) = 10.9/1 (7/2 ML)
#10 EP - 83.0, LP - 61.4, SP - 80.5, TT - 57.2, MP - 81.3, EL - 73.7, DP - 82.3, ELD - 71.9, SF - 88.4, BT - 100.0, AC - 111.8, PP - 167.0, AVG - 85.3/84.2/84.3/83.2 (6.3%/5.0%) = 14.8/1 (20/1 ML)
#9 EP - 70.3, LP - 73.6, SP - 81.8, TT - 54.6, MP - 81.8, EL - 75.6, DP - 76.5, ELD - 57.9, SF - 70.8, BT - 80.3, AC - 128.3, PP - 148.3, AVG - 81.1/83.1/83.4/85.4 (3.4%/5.8%) = 28.5/1 (15/1 ML)
#13 EP - 74.3, LP - 65.2, SP - 78.5, TT - 48.9, MP - 76.9, EL - 74.1, DP - 76.9, ELD - 72.5, SF - 86.7, BT - 98.9, AC - 105.4, PP - 152.7, AVG - 81.5/82.2/82.0/82.7 (3.2%/3.6%) = 30.3/1 (30/1 ML)
#14 EP - 77.7, LP - 59.7, SP - 76.8, TT - 51.9, MP - 76.0, EL - 71.7, DP - 77.7, ELD - 75.1, SF - 91.7, BT - 104.0, AC - 100.8, PP - 157.0, AVG - 82.0/81.5/81.3/80.8 (3.1%/2.6%) = 31.1/1 (30/1 ML)
#4 EP - 82.9, LP - 57.2, SP - 77.8, TT - 50.4, MP - 76.7, EL - 73.1, DP - 80.9, ELD - 66.8, SF - 85.3, BT - 95.4, AC - 94.4, PP - 165.4, AVG - 81.5/80.3/79.8/78.5 (2.6%/1.7%) = 38.2/1 (20/1 ML)
#6 EP - 71.5, LP - 64.3, SP - 76.6, TT - 54.8, MP - 76.7, EL - 70.7, DP - 74.5, ELD - 70.8, SF - 77.8, BT - 91.3, AC - 113.1, PP - 147.5, AVG - 79.9/80.5/81.0/81.6 (2.2%/2.8%) = 45.3/1 (12/1 ML)
#12 EP - 78.0, LP - 60.4, SP - 77.4, TT - 48.7, MP - 75.7, EL - 73.1, DP - 78.2, ELD - 75.8, SF - 76.4, BT - 92.3, AC - 97.1, PP - 157.8, AVG - 80.3/80.1/80.1/79.9 (2.2%/2.0%) = 45.3/1 (20/1 ML)
#11 EP - 69.7, LP - 65.0, SP - 76.1, TT - 55.7, MP - 76.4, EL - 70.0, DP - 73.3, ELD - 68.1, SF - 66.6, BT - 81.4, AC - 115.6, PP - 144.4, AVG - 78.3/79.2/80.0/80.8 (1.5%/2.2%) = 64.2/1 (15/1 ML)
#5 EP - 71.2, LP - 61.6, SP - 74.7, TT - 50.2, MP - 73.5, EL - 70.2, DP - 73.4, ELD - 73.9, SF - 75.2, BT - 90.5, AC - 101.4, PP - 146.1, AVG - 77.7/78.3/78.4/79.0 (1.3%/1.5%) = 76.9/1 (30/1 ML)

==========

G1 Santa Anita Derby (3:30);

#5 EP - 87.8, LP - 66.8, SP - 86.3, TT - 52.5, MP - 85.7, EL - 80.5, DP - 87.7, ELD - 73.8, SF - 103.0, BT - 112.3, AC - 113.6, PP - 177.2, AVG - 90.8/90.1/89.5/88.9 (37.4%/29.4%) = 1.7/1 (3/1 ML)
#6 EP - 84.9, LP - 70.8, SP - 87.4, TT - 57.4, MP - 88.1, EL - 80.1, DP - 86.7, ELD - 76.2, SF - 87.2, BT - 100.9, AC - 127.9, PP - 173.2, AVG - 90.4/90.3/90.8/90.7 (36.5%/42.5%) = 1.8/1 (4/5 ML) *favourite*
#1 EP - 83.1, LP - 66.2, SP - 83.5, TT - 52.0, MP - 82.8, EL - 78.0, DP - 83.8, ELD - 77.8, SF - 80.0, BT - 96.1, AC - 111.7, PP - 168.6, AVG - 86.0/85.8/86.1/85.9 (12.7%/13.8%) = 6.9/1 (5/2 ML)
#3 EP - 78.9, LP - 64.8, SP - 80.6, TT - 52.1, MP - 79.9, EL - 75.2, DP - 80.3, ELD - 77.7, SF - 78.1, BT - 94.5, AC - 109.7, PP - 160.8, AVG - 83.7/83.8/84.1/84.2 (7.7%/8.9%) = 12.1/1 (6/1 ML)
#2 EP - 75.5, LP - 61.0, SP - 76.5, TT - 51.7, MP - 75.7, EL - 71.4, DP - 76.5, ELD - 78.9, SF - 79.5, BT - 96.1, AC - 102.9, PP - 153.4, AVG - 80.8/80.7/81.0/81.0 (3.8%/4.2%) = 25.6/1 (30/1 ML)
#4 EP - 80.9, LP - 53.8, SP - 74.7, TT - 51.4, MP - 73.9, EL - 69.9, DP - 78.3, ELD - 64.5, SF - 82.8, BT - 92.5, AC - 90.3, PP - 160.8, AVG - 78.6/77.1/76.5/75.0 (1.9%/1.2%) = 51.8/1 (30/1 ML)

==========

 

[Sharkey]

Cutting out all the extra confusing stuff that I doubt anybody understands, these are just my W/P probabilities and fair odds lines for those races;

==========

G2 Wood Memorial (3:00);

#4 (28.5%/32.9%) = 2.5/1 (7/2 ML)
#1 (17.5%/18.6%) = 4.7/1 (9/2 ML)
#10 (9.4%/7.9%) = 9.7/1 (6/1 ML)
#5 (9.1%/8.1%) = 10.0/1 (8/1 ML)
#9 (7.9%/7.8%) = 11.6/1 (30/1 ML)
#3 (6.3%/6.0%) = 14.8/1 (6/1 ML)
#2 (6.0%/7.5%) = 15.6/1 (5/2 ML) *favourite*
#11 (5.2%/3.6%) = 18.3/1 (30/1 ML)
#7 (4.7%/4.1%) = 20.3/1 (20/1 ML)
#6 (2.9%/1.5%) = 33.5/1 (20/1 ML)
#8 (2.5%/1.9%) = 39.3/1 (30/1 ML)

==========

G2 Blue Grass Stakes (3:23);

#2 (23.6%/22.6%) = 3.2/1 (9/5 ML) *favourite*
#1 (20.7%/14.3%) = 3.8/1 (10/1 ML)
#3 (12.9%/15.5%) = 6.7/1 (5/1 ML)
#7 (8.5%/9.5%) = 10.7/1 (15/1 ML)
#8 (8.4%/10.9%) = 10.9/1 (7/2 ML)
#10 (6.3%/5.0%) = 14.8/1 (20/1 ML)
#9 (3.4%/5.8%) = 28.5/1 (15/1 ML)
#13 (3.2%/3.6%) = 30.3/1 (30/1 ML)
#14 (3.1%/2.6%) = 31.1/1 (30/1 ML)
#4 (2.6%/1.7%) = 38.2/1 (20/1 ML)
#6 (2.2%/2.8%) = 45.3/1 (12/1 ML)
#12 (2.2%/2.0%) = 45.3/1 (20/1 ML)
#11 (1.5%/2.2%) = 64.2/1 (15/1 ML)
#5 (1.3%/1.5%) = 76.9/1 (30/1 ML)

==========

G1 Santa Anita Derby (3:30);

#5 (37.4%/29.4%) = 1.7/1 (3/1 ML)
#6 (36.5%/42.5%) = 1.8/1 (4/5 ML) *favourite*
#1 (12.7%/13.8%) = 6.9/1 (5/2 ML)
#3 (7.7%/8.9%) = 12.1/1 (6/1 ML)
#2 (3.8%/4.2%) = 25.6/1 (30/1 ML)
#4 (1.9%/1.2%) = 51.8/1 (30/1 ML)

==========

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Thanks for the numbers @Sharkey . I've forgotten a bunch of stuff b/c it's been awhile and I'm a moron but can you explain fair odds to me again or point me to where you explain it itt? Thanks, glad to see you back, plan on getting back into crunching some numbers again soon.

 

[Sharkey]

Thanks for the numbers @Sharkey . I've forgotten a bunch of stuff b/c it's been awhile and I'm a moron but can you explain fair odds to me again or point me to where you explain it itt? Thanks, glad to see you back, plan on getting back into crunching some numbers again soon.

It's just the fair odds I have for them based on the probability of a horse winning based on my algorithms, bud. And I want better than fair odds before I make a bet of course because I'm looking for value. The percentages are based on the scores across 4 different pace scenarios and then finding the pace balance of those 4 for the win side of things. My place percentages are based mostly on counter energy scores opposite of the pace balance scores, but there's a couple of other factors including in that as well.

 

[Sharkey]

Holy shit have I ever geeked out and gone all nerdy "scientist" with this stuff over the past 6 months or so.

- available energy already shown by the horse and weighted on recently and rank
- further expected energy calculations based on pattern recognition and form cycle analysis
- potential energy based on four different readouts of race shapes (SpdE, SusE, SpdL, SusL)
- pace balance horse(s) and contrasting energy horse(s) based on those four readouts
- probability for both win and place based on pace balance and contrasting energy

...and that's what I do in the simplest terms I could possibly explain it in.

What the hell did I build here? Haha.

All because of my E2 angle basically and my looking to support the concepts behind it. Did I expand on that concept much? Jesus.

@BluntTrauma21

This is what I've been doing the last few months in the simpliest terms. i.e. It's very complicated. But it has been working for me, so I'm sticking with it.

 

[Sharkey]

It's just the fair odds I have for them based on the probability of a horse winning based on my algorithms, bud. And I want better than fair odds before I make a bet of course because I'm looking for value. The percentages are based on the scores across 4 different pace scenarios and then finding the pace balance of those 4 for the win side of things. My place percentages are based mostly on counter energy scores opposite of the pace balance scores, but there's a couple of other factors including in that as well.

This is just as far as win bets go @BluntTrauma21. If I'm looking to play exotics I may take shorter on a horse provided I have some plus value equalizers to accompany that one.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

@BluntTrauma21

This is what I've been doing the last few months in the simpliest terms. i.e. It's very complicated. But it has been working for me, so I'm sticking with it.

Thank you. As always, it's very much appreciated, buddy. The Derby's right around the corner, can't wait!

 

[Sharkey]

==========

G2 Blue Grass Stakes (3:23);

#2 EP - 86.4, LP - 69.4, SP - 87.2, TT - 54.5, MP - 87.1, EL - 80.8, DP - 87.4, ELD - 78.5, SF - 91.3, BT - 105.2, AC - 121.0, PP - 175.5, AVG - 90.4/90.2/90.3/90.0 (23.6%/22.6%) = 3.2/1 (9/5 ML) *favourite*
#1 EP - 85.7, LP - 64.2, SP - 83.7, TT - 52.8, MP - 83.1, EL - 77.9, DP - 85.2, ELD - 72.7, SF - 110.0, BT - 117.2, AC - 109.7, PP - 172.7, AVG - 90.1/89.4/88.6/87.8 (20.7%/14.3%) = 3.8/1 (10/1 ML)
#3 EP - 80.0, LP - 71.3, SP - 85.2, TT - 56.4, MP - 85.6, EL - 78.3, DP - 83.1, ELD - 70.7, SF - 87.0, BT - 98.4, AC - 127.1, PP - 164.7, AVG - 87.5/88.0/88.3/88.8 (12.9%/15.5%) = 6.7/1 (5/1 ML)
#7 EP - 78.4, LP - 66.9, SP - 81.6, TT - 56.2, MP - 82.1, EL - 75.1, DP - 80.5, ELD - 74.5, SF - 86.5, BT - 99.7, AC - 119.5, PP - 160.5, AVG - 85.9/86.1/86.4/86.6 (8.5%/9.5%) = 10.7/1 (15/1 ML)
#8 EP - 76.7, LP - 69.6, SP - 82.5, TT - 59.4, MP - 83.9, EL - 75.0, DP - 80.1, ELD - 69.4, SF - 83.9, BT - 95.4, AC - 128.9, PP - 158.4, AVG - 85.7/86.2/86.8/87.3 (8.4%/10.9%) = 10.9/1 (7/2 ML)
#10 EP - 83.0, LP - 61.4, SP - 80.5, TT - 57.2, MP - 81.3, EL - 73.7, DP - 82.3, ELD - 71.9, SF - 88.4, BT - 100.0, AC - 111.8, PP - 167.0, AVG - 85.3/84.2/84.3/83.2 (6.3%/5.0%) = 14.8/1 (20/1 ML)
#9 EP - 70.3, LP - 73.6, SP - 81.8, TT - 54.6, MP - 81.8, EL - 75.6, DP - 76.5, ELD - 57.9, SF - 70.8, BT - 80.3, AC - 128.3, PP - 148.3, AVG - 81.1/83.1/83.4/85.4 (3.4%/5.8%) = 28.5/1 (15/1 ML)
#13 EP - 74.3, LP - 65.2, SP - 78.5, TT - 48.9, MP - 76.9, EL - 74.1, DP - 76.9, ELD - 72.5, SF - 86.7, BT - 98.9, AC - 105.4, PP - 152.7, AVG - 81.5/82.2/82.0/82.7 (3.2%/3.6%) = 30.3/1 (30/1 ML)
#14 EP - 77.7, LP - 59.7, SP - 76.8, TT - 51.9, MP - 76.0, EL - 71.7, DP - 77.7, ELD - 75.1, SF - 91.7, BT - 104.0, AC - 100.8, PP - 157.0, AVG - 82.0/81.5/81.3/80.8 (3.1%/2.6%) = 31.1/1 (30/1 ML)
#4 EP - 82.9, LP - 57.2, SP - 77.8, TT - 50.4, MP - 76.7, EL - 73.1, DP - 80.9, ELD - 66.8, SF - 85.3, BT - 95.4, AC - 94.4, PP - 165.4, AVG - 81.5/80.3/79.8/78.5 (2.6%/1.7%) = 38.2/1 (20/1 ML)
#6 EP - 71.5, LP - 64.3, SP - 76.6, TT - 54.8, MP - 76.7, EL - 70.7, DP - 74.5, ELD - 70.8, SF - 77.8, BT - 91.3, AC - 113.1, PP - 147.5, AVG - 79.9/80.5/81.0/81.6 (2.2%/2.8%) = 45.3/1 (12/1 ML)
#12 EP - 78.0, LP - 60.4, SP - 77.4, TT - 48.7, MP - 75.7, EL - 73.1, DP - 78.2, ELD - 75.8, SF - 76.4, BT - 92.3, AC - 97.1, PP - 157.8, AVG - 80.3/80.1/80.1/79.9 (2.2%/2.0%) = 45.3/1 (20/1 ML)
#11 EP - 69.7, LP - 65.0, SP - 76.1, TT - 55.7, MP - 76.4, EL - 70.0, DP - 73.3, ELD - 68.1, SF - 66.6, BT - 81.4, AC - 115.6, PP - 144.4, AVG - 78.3/79.2/80.0/80.8 (1.5%/2.2%) = 64.2/1 (15/1 ML)
#5 EP - 71.2, LP - 61.6, SP - 74.7, TT - 50.2, MP - 73.5, EL - 70.2, DP - 73.4, ELD - 73.9, SF - 75.2, BT - 90.5, AC - 101.4, PP - 146.1, AVG - 77.7/78.3/78.4/79.0 (1.3%/1.5%) = 76.9/1 (30/1 ML)

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@BluntTrauma21

If you're going to bet this race and are looking to play exactas or tris, be careful of these top 2 here as there is some potential for them conflicting with each other (top 2 EP ratings and close). I don't have it happening until the turn if it does happen, but it could very well happen earlier. Or not at all. But, as I've spoken about a bunch in the past on here, the vast majority of the time there's only one survivor that fills the exacta in those types of situations.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

@BluntTrauma21

If you're going to bet this race and are looking to play exactas or tris, be careful of these top 2 here as there is some potential for them conflicting with each other (top 2 EP ratings and close). I don't have it happening until the turn if it does happen, but it could very well happen earlier. Or not at all. But, as I've spoken about a bunch in the past on here, the vast majority of the time there's only one survivor that fills the exacta in those types of situations.

the 1 horse looking like it has the better value here as a w/p bet, you agree? Just want to make sure I'm getting the numbers right and evaluating correctly etc.

 

[Vir_Ars]

Dude, this is rocket science, right here, I will stick to MMA, dont understand a fuck.....

 

[Sharkey]

the 1 horse looking like it has the better value here as a w/p bet, you agree? Just want to make sure I'm getting the numbers right and evaluating correctly etc.

On the win end for sure based on my probabilities (3.8/1 fair odds to win) and compared to it's ML odds (10/1). That's not the type of horse that I'd be looking to invest much in it placing, though, just because it's win probability is quite a bit higher than it's place probability. I have it as a 6/1 probability to place.

But I wouldn't make any decision this far out either without knowing scratches or what the actual odds will be.