What do you think @t6p? I may be out of my mind since I've not seen one other person mention this. But there are certainly some dots that could be connected here;
Let me take a look at those videos in the next day or two and get back to you bud.
I'll try to explain it without the videos, T, and then you can call me nuts afterwards for thinking a past debt might be collected this race.
Last year's Belmont;
Justify - owned by WinStar, trained by Baffert
Restoring Hope - owned by the Wests, trained by Baffert, and ridden by Florent Geroux
This year's Derby;
Improbable - owned by WinStar and trained by Baffert
Game Winner - owned by the Wests and trained by Baffert
Maximum Security - owned by the Wests
Roadster - trained by Baffert and ridden by Geroux
Omaha Beach is the favourite and likes to run on or close to the early pace. Maximum Security is also a horse that likes to be on or close to the lead. Improbable's last workout (in the video) saw him being urged to run faster early than late in the workout and he did (11.80, 11.60, 12.20, 12.40 were his splits for the 4f work). Baffert's two other runners, Roadster and Game Winner, have shown that they like to come off the pace a little bit in their races.
Baffert is known as the best race "tactician" in the game as far as trainers go. WinStar is also not above resorting to "tactics" themselves as seen in last year's Belmont, and also the 2016 Arkansas Derby and Belmont which a couple of you guys took advantage of (Gettysburg).
Alright Shark, I've watched all the videos and read your explanation at least 10 times, haha. I think you're saying that we should be looking at Game Winner and Roadster?
For the record, the top ELD horses who I had ranked in the top half of the field is showing itself by far to be the most impactful for finishing 3rd. I reviewed 268 races yesterday (apx half of what I have saved), and the the top ELD horse which is also ranked in my top half finished exactly 3rd in 97 of them. That's 36.2% of the time. The average field size of all the races I looked at was 7.82, so it's nearly 3 times random. Or, if just sticking to the top half of the field, that's +10.6 % greater than what the average should be for horses ranked that high (1 / 3.91 = 25.6%). The top LP horse who is also ranked in the top half is so far the 2nd most impactful with it finishing exactly 3rd in 78 of those 268 races (29.1%).
For the record, since 2000, horses who have improved their final figure by 8+ points in their final prep are 0 for 54 in the Derby. i.e. The last race was probably the time for this guy, although the Belmont isn't too far away for him.
I wouldn't bet more than a dozen of these Derby horses with free money. Yuck. I've known who my 5th option is going to be all along, but finding a 6th option for the super is going to be damn near impossible for me I think with so many having already peaked and regressed last time out, have a regressive pattern going into the Derby, are too slow, or are just simply not worth a bet.
Mind you, if the 2nd AE can somehow find his way in then I'll be using him as an underneath option for sure. Unlikely scenario that he does get in however.