UFC 202 - McGoat vs Diaz II - Vegas

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Had to bite a small bet on Mizugaki at +360. I have No Love for Cody and while I think he should win the odds are stupidly high on him.
 
StiG85 said:
Put a small bet (10) on diaz R4 to win 170. Just because gut feeling. usualy gut feelings get me nothing
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Haha thanks for the tip, I'm pretty sure I'm betting this now. Because if I don't, and it does come in, I'll be veryy angry with myself for not taking your advice!
 
Bend NvR Break said:
I don't expect the fight to go pass 3 rounds either. I might go back and make an over/under 3 rounds bet.
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Not a bad bet at all. If the fight gets finished (which I suspect it will), I would think within 3. For sure if McGregor gets the finish. However, I can see Nate finishing in the 4th or 5th.
 
media stare downs (no Conner/nate though)
 
man what the fuck, elizabeth phillips looked much bigger?? nm, heels.
 
I really liked Nates odds last fight but wasn't terribly confident.


I'm going against the grain here and saying "Fook Team Diaz" and betting on Conor.
 




Conor's two strongest lines during this video clip are taken from Scarface and 2pac's "Hit 'Em Up." Conor is often heard listening to 2pac during his training camp videos.
 
I'm thinking about a big bet on Under 2.5 rounds and hedging it with Nate in round 4 and 5.
 
Fucking LMFAO at "Glover should be the favorite".

Diaz and Rumble parlay look great to me.
 
So I never really put a ton of stock in the whole "mental warfare" thing. Not because I think it doesn't matter or that it's not important, but because I've never found a very good way to quantify it. Conor loves to play the mental game, okay. Does it have an effect on some guys? Sure, yeah, probably. But how much to each particular opponent? How do we know, or even venture a guess really, how and how much a certain guy is fazed by fighting Conor and dealing with all the stuff that comes with it? Including how he uses words as weapons leading up to the fight. There's just no way to know what the impact really is in each fight.

The reason I bring it up is that it sure seems Conor is accomplishing zip with his mental warfare leading up to this one. Now, part of that is for obvious reasons. He was finished inside 2 rounds against this particular guy in their last fight just months ago. But part of it is the Diaz attitude. When they say "I don't give a f***", they really mean it. Conor seems a bit lost and doesn't know how to deal with how his normal tactics seem to have no effect. Now, again, some of that is because Nate has ammo the other guys Conor has fought don't. But Nate getting up and leaving the presser clearly rattled Conor a bit. He's used to dictating things, and to have that taken away seemed to agitate him a lot.

I'm playing armchair psychologist here for sure and this is hardly the main factor in determining a bet, but it's there. And it's kinda obvious to my eyes. Conor is losing the psychological battle, and he's losing it badly. For whatever it may or may not be worth.
 
mkess101 said:
So I never really put a ton of stock in the whole "mental warfare" thing. Not because I think it doesn't matter or that it's not important, but because I've never found a very good way to quantify it. Conor loves to play the mental game, okay. Does it have an effect on some guys? Sure, yeah, probably. But how much to each particular opponent? How do we know, or even venture a guess really, how and how much a certain guy is fazed by fighting Conor and dealing with all the stuff that comes with it? Including how he uses words as weapons leading up to the fight. There's just no way to know what the impact really is in each fight.

The reason I bring it up is that it sure seems Conor is accomplishing zip with his mental warfare leading up to this one. Now, part of that is for obvious reasons. He was finished inside 2 rounds against this particular guy in their last fight just months ago. But part of it is the Diaz attitude. When they say "I don't give a f***", they really mean it. Conor seems a bit lost and doesn't know how to deal with how his normal tactics seem to have no effect. Now, again, some of that is because Nate has ammo the other guys Conor has fought don't. But Nate getting up and leaving the presser clearly rattled Conor a bit. He's used to dictating things, and to have that taken away seemed to agitate him a lot.

I'm playing armchair psychologist here for sure and this is hardly the main factor in determining a bet, but it's there. And it's kinda obvious to my eyes. Conor is losing the psychological battle, and he's losing it badly. For whatever it may or may not be worth.
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Totally agree.

If you look UFC 202 Embedded 5 you can see Conor is really stressed.

Im not talking about the mindset in a fight but stress is a bitch before any competition. It really drains a lot of energy, fucks your rest time, etc. Coming from a guy who always looks pumped but very very confident you have to ask how it is going to affect his performance.
 
So big on Nate after seeing how hard Conor's jimmies are rustled. Surely his line won't get better than +110
 
barrygood1 said:
Barry's UFC 202 Free Picks

Conor Mcregor -110 (Triple Unit Bet)
Teixeria Glover by KO, TKO or DQ +800 (Flier Bet)
Rick Story ML +140
Chris Avila ML -106
Cortney Casey ML +120

This is my finalized card. Been doing a ton of research on the main event and I stumbled upon some huuuuuuuuuuuuuge x-factors pointing to a Mcregor win. I'll say this: his line is undervalued until around -150 to -170 range trust me on this! As for the other fights, I see value from the tape I watched and other variables. I suggest if you want to make some easy $$$ then get on these picks because this is a limited time offer. Yes, I know I sound like a QVC infomercial, but I cannot stress this point anymore clearly. Any other Joe Schmo would have to subscribe to my service to access these highly valuable picks, but I like to throw a bone to the sherdog betting community once in a blue moon.

Not that you need to be reminded if ya'll appreciate the efforts I go through to provide you with this classified information click that like button. Remember, every 50 to 100 likes unlocks free picks from yours truly.

Cheers :]


- Barry
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@barrygood1

You'll get a like from me when you write your reasons for your picks. You always say that you do a ton of research and analysis, so can you write some arguments on each of the lines you have chosen?
 
SalvadorAllende said:
Had to bite a small bet on Mizugaki at +360. I have No Love for Cody and while I think he should win the odds are stupidly high on him.
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I've put a bit on Mizugaki DEC @ 8.400 - His ML is great, but I see him winning this by DEC if he wins. There is a pretty good cap between the ML and DEC.
 
It's perplexing that Nate Diaz line keeps hovering around +odds considering most analytical minds are on him. I would have expected him to move to the favorite by now.
 
MMABetzor said:
I've put a bit on Mizugaki DEC @ 8.400 - His ML is great, but I see him winning this by DEC if he wins. There is a pretty good cap between the ML and DEC.
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Yeah.. my bookies does not have props but decision is probably his best route to victory.
 
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