UFC 209 - Twood vs Wonderboy II - Vegas

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something else to keep in mind is also the 6" inch reach advantage for Ferg that is pretty massive and might make it hard for Khabib to get inside for the takedowns at least without putting himself in danger
 
quincy k said:
why not wait to bet ferg after khabib hits a td or two early?
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no reason to get greedy when we already have a great line :) would suck waiting for a better line and see Ferg hurting Khabib early or even finishing him and get left with nothing =/
 
rashad 1.4 X Kelly 2.95
Lando 1.3 X Teymur 3.5

Public underestimating Kelly again :D
 
My high level play on Hendricks cashed and now onto UFC 209. Will most likely have several high level plays for this card, already seeing one I like. Khabib is going to take that L sooner or later, Tony Ferguson is the most mentally strong fighter in the UFC, unbreakable. Michael Johnson was piecing Khabib up on the feet, Ferguson will do the same.

Here's the thing about MJ, he's very athletic, very fast and a very good striker. He also has very good TDD but he struggles greatly once on his back, he's never had a solid ground game, it's always been his weakness. He also fades in fights too and that's what happened vs Khabib, he started strong and was tagging Khabib up but after the first TD and mauling he was done.

Like MJ, Tony also is also a very good striker that has very good TDD but Tony has what MJ lacked and that's a ground game. Dangerous submission game, great scrambles, active guard. Will that be enough vs Khabib? very possible but the ground will most likely be plan B, Tony holds the advantage on the feet, clearly.

Value on Tony at +175, I like it. He's more well rounded and he has more ways to win. This is also 5 rounds which is always a good thing for Tony, both guys have great cardio but I believe Tony has the best cardio at 155. He keeps a high pace and always comes forward, Tony is going to break his will.

Tony Ferguson is easy money.
 
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wack3d said:
something else to keep in mind is also the 6" inch reach advantage for Ferg that is pretty massive and might make it hard for Khabib to get inside for the takedowns at least without putting himself in danger
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I'm on Tony FWIW, The only thing I worry about is that Tony does loop and go a little wild at times, which will make it easier for Khabib to stick to his hips.
 
MMA Gambling Expert said:
You think Lando should be like -300? I will hammer Teymur if so, I think Teymur wins this fight.
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Why is Teymur going to win? I need to watch tape so im not going to go into my opinion too much yet, but Teymur lost on TUF 18 months ago and has beaten two non UFC calibre fighters. Lando almost beat the beast that is Tony Ferg and dusted a solid vet in Makdessi. Interested to hear your opinion, like I said i need to watch tape.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Why is Teymur going to win? I need to watch tape so im not going to go into my opinion too much yet, but Teymur lost on TUF 18 months ago and has beaten two non UFC calibre fighters. Lando almost beat the beast that is Tony Ferg and dusted a solid vet in Makdessi. Interested to hear your opinion, like I said i need to watch tape.
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Teymur is a Muay Thai champion his striking is at a very high level. He trains at All Stars which is one of the best gyms in Europe, still young in his MMA career and is making big improvements. Looked great in both his UFC fights, both nasty KO's too. I think he can keep it on the feet with Vanata and outstrike him, possibly KO him. Watch some tape on Teymur, he's very impressive. Doubt the line will be as wide when Kalikas releases it though. Lando probably be closer to -200
 
MMA Gambling Expert said:
My high level play on Hendricks cashed and now onto UFC 209. Will most likely have several high level plays for this card, already seeing one I like. Khabib is going to take that L sooner or later, Tony Ferguson is the most mentally strong fighter in the UFC, unbreakable. Michael Johnson was piecing Khabib up on the feet, Ferguson will do the same.

Here's the thing about MJ, he's very athletic, very fast and a very good striker. He also has very good TDD but he struggles greatly once on his back, he's never had a solid ground game, it's always been his weakness. He also fades in fights too and that's what happened vs Khabib, he started strong and was tagging Khabib up but after the first TD and mauling he was done.

Like MJ, Tony also is also a very good striker that has very good TDD but Tony has what MJ lacked and that's a ground game. Dangerous submission game, great scrambles, active guard. Will that be enough vs Khabib? very possible but the ground will most likely be plan B, Tony holds the advantage on the feet, clearly.

Value on Tony at +175, I like it. He's more well rounded and he has more ways to win. This is also 5 rounds which is always a good thing for Tony, both guys have great cardio but I believe Tony has the best cardio at 155. He keeps a high pace and always comes forward, Tony is going to break his will.

Tony Ferguson is easy money.
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The way i see it is similar Ferg has three paths to victory Khabib probably one. However take out Ferg is easy money. I've bet on Ferg possibly his last six fights and near enough every time he has given me multiple heart attacks. Barboza and Lando fights in particular. R1 against RDA too!
 
Lando was loosing against makdessi before that kick

I favour him but price lookes off in what should be a standing affair
 
Sham5916910 said:
Why is Teymur going to win? I need to watch tape so im not going to go into my opinion too much yet, but Teymur lost on TUF 18 months ago and has beaten two non UFC calibre fighters. Lando almost beat the beast that is Tony Ferg and dusted a solid vet in Makdessi. Interested to hear your opinion, like I said i need to watch tape.
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i need to watch tape too but i like him becourse +250, reach advantage, i dont expect any grappling which is where Teymur struggles, both of them are high level strikers Teymur started training Muay Thai 13 years ago
 
I think the line for Lando vs Teymur would be like -225, to +150 or something like that but the public may balloon it to -400 for Lando. I wanna take Teymur at the best price so im hesitating a little.
 
rille31 said:
lol at people fading thompson after some pic taken after a gym session

maybe he was hitting pads with his boxing coach or some boxing sparring with the big guy to the right
he definately didnt train with the chicks or the midget
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Yeah idk if you guys are aware of this, but WB has his own high level wrestlers he hires and works with at his karate gym. They showed one dude in one of the countdowns awhile back and I remember his credentials were very legit.
 
rille31 said:
Lando was loosing against makdessi before that kick

I favour him but price lookes off in what should be a standing affair
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You can't read too much into that the fight lasted like one minute.
 
Sham5916910 said:
You can't read too much into that the fight lasted like one minute.
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Agreed, we know even with his striking and mesmerising bobs and weaves, he's so very hittable as his hands are low. Jabs and overhands will be the kryptonite to the current version of Lando we've seen. I like the guy but he's defensively not sound event though his defence is flashy as fuck. Guys with good fundamentals may cause him trouble in the standup, Teymur has very high level MT experience which could exploit Lando. I favor Lando ever so slightly due to his accomplishments against Ferg and Makdessi aswell as my slight fandom but if his price is ridiculous, like -350 or worse, Ill play the dog here.
 
Bearjew, Sanders, Bektic & Groovy Lando - which hype train is coming to a stop?
 
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