UFC 227 Dillashaw vs Garbrandt II

mkess101 said:
Cody has good TDD but have we seen his getups vs a top tier wrestler? Maybe we have, I just don't remember.
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Don't recall if Cruz ever got him to the mat, if he did he certainly didn't stay there and that kinda says it all doesn't it? lol
 
I like that the line is moving into Torres' favor. Alex Perez has nuanced advantages here.

First, Perez is a much better wrestler and is amazing at holding front headlocks for top control minutes. Torres has gotten caught in this position before vs way worse wrestlers. Also, Torres has some decent TDD but he gets taken down when people mix up tds. Perez has a wide variety of leg attack takedowns. He will shoot sweep singles, knee taps, inside trips, etc. I expect the diversity of Perez's tds to be enough to get a TD here and there. And once Torres is on his back he can be held down for significant periods.

Second, Torres' striking looks good because he pressures and is constantly going for offense, but he walks in a straight line and Perez is way faster and uses better angles. I would not be surprised if Perez lands something big.

Perez has a significant wrestling advantage here and he is way harder to hit. Torres could get away with his straight line striking in Titan FC but even vs a terrible striker like Jarrod Brooks, he got exposed (yea it was a spinning back fist, but he leaves himself so open). I expect Perez to be able to land some big strikes.

Torres will be a very hittable target vs a much more technical fighter and better wrestler. I will let the line get to about even and throw two units on Perez.
 
Stunna77 said:
Don't recall if Cruz ever got him to the mat, if he did he certainly didn't stay there and that kinda says it all doesn't it? lol
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I don't think he did but man that wasn't the Dom we were used to seeing either. Looked slow and lacked explosion, right from the start.

I'm just wondering if Cody will find getting up to be pretty difficult IF he gets put on his back by a guy with the top control of TJ.

I'm definitely not saying it's a given TJ even gets the fight there (or even tries). I just wonder if he does whether Cody will be able to work his way back to his feet or not. TJ has elite top control.
 
Karmello said:
Over/Unders are being released. Took Cody - TJ under 3.5 @+120 for the max limit, great odds especially with the bad blood between those two and with how the first fight went, opened @+140. Also took the under 2.5 in the Zhang - Taylor fight for 1u @+260.

Added:
Aldrich - Viana under 2.5 @+275 also for 1 unit
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I think that's the best way to play Zhang/Taylor fight.
 
mkess101 said:
I don't think he did but man that wasn't the Dom we were used to seeing either. Looked slow and lacked explosion, right from the start.

I'm just wondering if Cody will find getting up to be pretty difficult IF he gets put on his back by a guy with the top control of TJ.

I'm definitely not saying it's a given TJ even gets the fight there (or even tries). I just wonder if he does whether Cody will be able to work his way back to his feet or not. TJ has elite top control.
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It’s an interesting question, but elite athletes with enough wrestling skill to stuff takedowns always seem to do well at getting back up.
 
looks like somebody dropped a bomb on JJ all the way down to +170 now
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
It’s an interesting question, but elite athletes with enough wrestling skill to stuff takedowns always seem to do well at getting back up.
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Very true and a good point. And you have to expect TAM doesn't skimp on training every scenario properly. Still, if it's just not a spot Cody has found himself in much (if at all) then it could still be a potential advantage for TJ if he does get him down.
 
Took some of Mighty Mouse itd at +105. Still has value where it's at now at -125 imo. Yes Cejudo has improved but you know what? So has DJ.
 
Naught2Sixty said:
Took some of Mighty Mouse itd at +105. Still has value where it's at now at -125 imo. Yes Cejudo has improved but you know what? So has DJ.
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Still +110 on Betsafe, I put 2.5u on it, gonna bet DJ round 3-4-5 also if the odds are good enough
 
mkess101 said:
Very true and a good point. And you have to expect TAM doesn't skimp on training every scenario properly. Still, if it's just not a spot Cody has found himself in much (if at all) then it could still be a potential advantage for TJ if he does get him down.
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Agree. The way I look at it is it's unlikely to be a significant advantage for TJ but there's like a 2% chance his wrestling and top game makes a difference in this fight. As somebody who wants to bet TJ anyway, it's nice to have it on his side.
 
Missed DJ ITD +money. Took U4.5 @+100. I think its better than DJ ITD -120 , although DJ has won a few fights during the last minutes of the final round. Playing both small.
 
Anybody knows if Kevin Holland checks leg kicks? Santos was doing damage to Branch’s legs before getting KO’d. I could see him wrecking Holland’s legs before he even has a chance to land a solid punch
 
Yeah he holds the record for latest finish in championship fight... 4:59 in rd 5.
 
BarArm said:
Missed DJ ITD +money. Took U4.5 @+100. I think its better than DJ ITD -120 , although DJ has won a few fights during the last minutes of the final round. Playing both small.
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I remember a bunch of people getting fucked on the under with the Ray Borg fight.
 
Not betting this card, but I'm surprised how many people are so confident in DJ here. I'm a firm disbeliever in invincibility. Cejudo has looked miles ahead of both his opponents and his previous self recently. Particularly in his striking, which was *okay* before and looks phenomenal now. It's like something clicked in him after the first fight to push him to legit champion-level material.

Don't forget Cejudo managed to take DJ down in their first fight too. And he was finished with body shots. We don't have any reason to think he's chinny (yet, at least). I've never even thought about betting against DJ before but I don't agree with the confident ITD picks and such here.
 
rev0lver said:
Not betting this card, but I'm surprised how many people are so confident in DJ here. I'm a firm disbeliever in invincibility. Cejudo has looked miles ahead of both his opponents and his previous self recently. Particularly in his striking, which was *okay* before and looks phenomenal now. It's like something clicked in him after the first fight to push him to legit champion-level material.

Don't forget Cejudo managed to take DJ down in their first fight too. And he was finished with body shots. We don't have any reason to think he's chinny (yet, at least). I've never even thought about betting against DJ before but I don't agree with the confident ITD picks and such here.
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I agree that cejudo has certainly gotten better since the last fight but lets look at what he did. He finished reis and his standup looked very good (dj dominated him also) and beat sergio pettis mostly using his wrestlng. I know he won a unanamious decision but most of the standup exchanges were dominated by pettis. Pettis hit him with leg kicks and landed lots of combos on him.
 
fuck man DJ's wife is like 9 months pregnant. baby could come any day now... imagine what would happen if she has it the next 3 days
 
NorthernLights said:
Marlon Vera is not -500 favorite material. Not for me anyway.

I won't be able to to watch the event live due to real life obligations, so I'm not making too many plays this time. Managed to put a lot down on Montel Jackson @ 2.50...risking about 1.5u on him to win roughly 4.5u now. Other than that I'm playing Aldrich and Torres. Might just stick to that.
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Trust me..... Marlon will win for sure. I understand that he’s a big favorite but he’s the 1 I know will win for sure.
 
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