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UFC 229: McGregor vs Khabib

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Roads55, Aug 29, 2018.

  1. LiquidNuke Purple Belt

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    Anyone else feel the 23 year old seemingly surging Ladd very well may ragdoll the 14 years her senior 37 year old Evinger?

    Evinger has a whole lot of wear and tear, I'm thinking of taking a stab at Ladd ITD if I can get it at a decent price. Ladd is one of those new wave of women fighters that can seemingly be depended on to actually finish fights, and Evinger's history of being submitted just makes me think Ladd's camp must be rear naked choke and GNP drills.
     
  2. PuertoRican Gold Belt

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  3. ClipYourDirtyWings The Best is Blessed

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    Yup. Made a huge play on Conor +165 solely to arb it when the line moves. I have no intention of making an actual play there aside from maybe some small stabs at props. Very likely will be able to arb with Khabib at dog odds
     
  4. lifeisgood12345 Purple Belt

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    Khabib is not going to +odds
     
  5. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    that's not an arb. that's a trade. but yeah like @lifeisgood12345 said, khabib is not going to be a dog. very unlikely at least. price has been pretty stagnant since the last movement when khabib got bet down to 1.62 ish area.
     
  6. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    if khabib ends up dog it will be due to an injury rumor or struggles with the cut. the fact that no significant movement has happened to the line yet despite the many people claiming the "irish money" meme will get it there speaks volumes. conor has rarely if ever shortened by that much in his fights. and there's no reason it will here against by far his toughest test to date, causing khabib to be the underdog barring 1 of the reasons i mentioned.
     
  7. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    He shortened a lot against Mayweather, lengthened from 1.54 to 1.71 before plunging back to 1.6 in the last 48 hours against Alvarez, shortened hugely against Diaz the first time, shortened from -110 to -200 against Mendes and shortened a crapton in his earlier UFC fights. Late Conor money's been a thing so far, though late Russian money might cancel it out.
     
  8. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    Mayweather fight is an anomaly and not really comparable to his mma fights i think.

    The "irish money" effect (or more accurateley irish/uk/euro money) is ofc real but overexagerated. As you posted there has never been the kind of line change for conors fights that is as big as the one people think is going to happen to make khabib the dog. Russian moey and general interest in khabibs line will curb the effect to a sizeable degree.
     
  9. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    True. I think Khabib closes at like -125 or so, personally, but I think that he'll definitely shorten.
     
  10. lifeisgood12345 Purple Belt

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    I could see Khabib price dropping a decent bit, but I don't think Conor hype train is going to be the same without doing media.

    I suspect much of his steam against Floyd came from the press conferences where he would say stuff like "FOOK DA MAYWEDDERS" and then fanboys would be like "wow conor has magic, he can do it" and would bet him. Without that happening for this fight, I would imagine he only gets casual steam and maybe not that much with lots of sharp bettors itching to get Khabib at -1xx odds for the only time ever.
     
  11. lifeisgood12345 Purple Belt

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    Most of Ladd's finishing comes on the ground, may be tough to get Evinger there. Ladd's standup looks pretty garbage and she is super slow, so don't see her getting the finish if Evinger can stuff takedowns.

    Nevertheless could be some value on the much younger fighter, but I don't feel great about betting this one
     
  12. ClipYourDirtyWings The Best is Blessed

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    The line will move in the week/days before the fight for sure. Even if Conor doesn’t close as the favorite, we’ll see -115/-115 or something close to that. Still set myself up nicely to arb with the large Conor play on the +165 line
     
  13. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    Even if his TDD is above average which is debatable you have to consider the opponent. Khabib has the best TDs and chain wrestling in the division.

    What? Conor had pretty bad cardio prior to Diaz 2 where he did a lot of work to improve.

    I think Conor's cardio is mediocre at best depending on how much work he does prior to fight time. If he puts in work he will be ok if he doesn't then his cardio sucks as we saw he dips in r2 in almost all his fights.
     
  14. LiquidNuke Purple Belt

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    Ladd is a big girl, Invicta commentary stated she comes down from 150 something pounds. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see Ladd look that much better because of that huge youth and probable big size and strength advantage.

    I'm impressed with Ladd's finishing ratio and how many opponents has she really struggled to get to the canvas? She struggled in her last bout in the first round before adjusting and taking a very solid fighter to the ground before finishing with ground and pound. That's where the great majority of her fights have ended up, and she's finished the majority of them one way or another at that point in time. Like I said, if I can get a favorable line I'd love to take a stab at it...

    I really do feel that there were several women in the UFC right now who are "next generation" in their ability to finish fights. Ladd is almost there in my opinion, Suarez is another and that Chinese girl who debuted a few months ago (Xu?) is another fighter with a startingly high finish ratio.

    Suarez ITD in her last bout just a few weeks ago cashed at +150 and higher... I was all over that and even though it took until 30 seconds left in the fight, she got that stoppage. Also in that bout was the massive strength and size advantage between some of these lower weight women fighters, Suarez looked like an ogre in there.
     
  15. Karmello Purple Belt

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    I hope you're right, but the late Russian money that came in on Krylov, Oleynik and Shamil last weekend doesn't worry you? And it's not just the Russians that are going to be betting Khabib, but the smart gamblers as well, so I'm really not so sure that Khabibs price will get crazy. The late Conor money will be coming in for sure, but it could get cancelled out.
     
  16. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Is the Suarez pick realllly the best example? She had a massive wrestling/strength advantage on Esparza, and it took a ton of time for her to finish the fight, and it's not necessarily a point that a lot of refs would have stopped the fight at. Chinese girl just got by on aggression against a bunch of regional chumps, remembering her tape.
     
  17. theTKDguy Silver Belt

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    I agree with diego and lentz tbh. conor KO/TKO in the first is a good bet.
     
  18. piglord Black Belt

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    disagree about her standup, i think her boxing looks serviceable and she's way better than evinger who has always had terrible striking. i think ladd wins if he avoids being put on her back for too long.
     
  19. LiquidNuke Purple Belt

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    Evinger was also just subbed by a kickboxer with little submission skills before avenging the loss recently. We've never seen anyone put Ladd on her back and control her either, have we?
     
  20. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    That was overturned. So since her 2013 loss to Pennington, she’s only lost to cyborg

    She’s got pretty good wrestling and submissions. She also has butch lesbian strength and a ton of experience in mma

    Her opener at +185 was very nice
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2018

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